If you came over from my 10 Sleepers article, let me start by reiterating – it feels great to have football back. The season is now ready to kick off, and with teams finalizing their 53-man rosters this week, it’s the perfect time to get to drafting. While it’s fun to pin your team’s hopes on sleepers (because you look like a genius and can lord it over your league mates all offseason), it’s also crucial to know who’s a potential bust and avoid them accordingly. With all the good and bad luck a season can bring to your players, wasting a draft selection or a waiver pickup on a player who doesn’t pan out can be the difference between victory and defeat most weeks. Here’s a list of 10 Busts I’m avoiding for the 2024 season.
For this write-up, I scoured ADP for ESPN, Sleeper, and NFL rankings and put together an ascending list of players who I believe will disappoint based on where they’re being selected. I fully intend to revisit this article and see what I hit on and what I didn’t at the season’s end. As of the publish date, these are the current rankings (since this changes on a whim).
2024 Fantasy Busts
Jakobi Meyers, WR – Las Vegas Raiders
Overall WR55
ESPN Ranking: 135 / Sleeper Ranking: 134 / NFL Ranking: 176
Starting this list off is a waiver wire darling from last season in Meyers. The former New England Patriot has flashed as the number two receiver in Las Vegas behind veteran star Davante Adams, but has never really taken over the field as a legitimate threat in fantasy. He finished last season well against Denver and had a handful of solid outings, but there were more bad weeks than good with the likes of Aidan O’Connell flinging the ball around.
This season, the QB room is seemingly upgraded with journeyman Gardner Minshew brought in to helm Antonio Pierce‘s offense, but I’m not exactly sold on that being an improvement. Minshew regularly feeds the WR1 in his offenses, but leaves much to be desired when it comes to the rest of the weapons available to him. There was a bit of evidence to this in the preseason, with Minshew going 0 for 4 on throws to Meyers (against the second-string Dallas secondary, no less). Granted, it’s preseason – there isn’t a lot to take from those performances – and Pierce has raved about Meyers’ game in training camp up to this point, so it could end up being nothing. For me though, it’s slightly concerning, even at his late ADP.
Zack Moss, RB – Cincinnati Bengals
Overall RB33
ESPN Ranking: 104 / Sleeper Ranking: 92 / NFL Ranking: 118
I can’t say I ever bought into the Zack Moss hype train last season in Indy. He did very well in Jonathan Taylor‘s absence, finishing as a top-15 RB in five of the first eight weeks of the season, but then faded to absolute obscurity the rest of the way. Now he finds himself as a free agent addition with the Bengals, filling Joe Mixon‘s role as the RB1B (or A, depending on who you ask).
The fact that he failed to separate from fellow RB Chase Brown tells me even the Bengals aren’t sold on Moss being the alpha RB1 out of that backfield. The potential for a committee approach is essentially baked into Moss’ ADP, but it’s still not exactly a comfortable spot for me to select him either. There are plenty of younger, more promising backs in better situations that I would rather take a flyer on in the later rounds, frankly.
Marquise Brown, WR – Kansas City Chiefs
Overall WR45
ESPN Ranking: 118 / Sleeper Ranking: 89 / NFL Ranking: 96
“Hollywood” failed to finish a third straight season without missing a game due to injury. The former Raven and Cardinal has had a problem staying healthy, even in solid situations with his previous teams. He now joins the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs and future first-ballot Hall of Famer Patrick Mahomes in their undermanned (but overachieving) receiver corps, and there’s a ton of promise to be had with what Mahomes and that offense can do. That being said, it’s a bit of a letdown that Brown is already hurt and in danger of missing Week 1 against Baltimore.
His injury history and overall lack of production recently concern me greatly. Yes, if there’s anyone who can elevate Brown’s game at this point, it’s Mahomes, but Brown has to stay on the field to make that happen. Additionally, it’s who the Chiefs drafted with their 2024 first-rounder that tanks Brown’s value in my view. Xavier Worthy was a stud for the Longhorns last year, and while he’s undersized and struggles with press coverage, he still is a rangy downfield threat with incredible speed (see his 4.21 record-setting 40-time). The Chiefs seemingly want to replicate what Tyreek Hill once was in Kansas City, and my money would be on Worthy filling that role better than Brown ever could.
Keenan Allen, WR – Chicago Bears
Overall WR33
ESPN Ranking: 71 / Sleeper Ranking: 64 / NFL Ranking: 78
It feels like blasphemy at this point writing that Allen will be a bust in 2024. It wouldn’t be the first time many in the fantasy community have written the veteran off, and they’ve been wrong every year to this point. So it stands that 2024 could finally be the year, right? Right?
All kidding aside, Allen has proven year after year that he can maintain his production and now finds himself on a very exciting offense in Chicago with impressive rookie QB Caleb Williams slinging the rock. So then why would his production fall off this year of all years? From my viewpoint, it’s the options available that’ll do it, making him a bust at his ADP this season.
Hear me out – Williams has Allen to pair with DJ Moore, fellow rookie stud Rome Odunze, reliable TE Cole Kmet, and a promising run game with D’Andre Swift. That is indeed a stacked offense, and the abundance of riches will make it tough to predict exactly who is the number-one option week to week. Many have tried to foretell the pecking order here, and I’d say the ADP agrees with what I think more or less – it’ll be DJ Moore as the WR1 more often than not, with Odunze’s rapport with Williams making him the second go-to for targets. Allen can be dangerous even as a WR3, and I’m sure he’ll ball out a few weeks this fall, but for his current price, there likely are more promising wideout situations that should garner consideration before taking Allen at price.
Zamir White, RB – Las Vegas Raiders
Overall RB23
ESPN Ranking: 68 / Sleeper Ranking: 82 / NFL Ranking: 66
I’m not very high on the Raiders this year, and at the top of my list of potential letdowns in Las Vegas is Zamir White. The offseason hype followed White for his performances in the latter half of the 2023 season, but even then his numbers were not exactly mind-bending. Now that longtime star Josh Jacobs has left for Green Bay, White is the heir apparent for Antonio Pierce and the tough style of physical running that he envisions his offense to showcase – but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be all that successful at it.
“Zeus” as he’s aptly nicknamed is a tough-looking RB, but his efficiency is meager at best. He’s managed a single rushing TD (in the 63-21 beatdown the Raiders gave as a Christmas present to the Chargers last year) in his brief career, and while it’s been a modest 4.3 yard-per-rush average so far, White probably won’t light up the points on your fantasy roster. Combine that with the subpar play of the Raiders’ o-line and the additions of Alexander Mattison and rookie gem Dylan Laube behind him, and it’s a recipe for problems at White’s current ADP.
Dalton Kincaid, TE – Buffalo Bills
Overall TE5
ESPN Ranking: 56 / Sleeper Ranking: 51 / NFL Ranking: 53
Kincaid was very promising as a rookie addition last season, and the hype that surrounds him centers on that and the overall lack of options for QB Josh Allen and Co. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are gone, replaced by unproven rookies and journeyman additions for offensive coordinator Joe Brady. When Khalil Shakir is your de facto WR1, there might indeed be problems.
So naturally, Kincaid having potential as the primary pass catcher has really taken off over the last few months. Allen seems to like him, and they flashed numerous times during the 2023 campaign, especially when fellow TE Dawson Knox was out with an injury.
Therein lies the problem, however – Dawson Knox is still here. The Bills staff love him – he’s physical, a willing blocker, and encapsulates the energy and demeanor the Bills want to bring week in and week out. It’s going to be hard to keep him off the field, and even though there is a lack of options in Buffalo, there will likely be a timeshare at the TE position going forward. That’s a tough situation for the overall TE5, and too rich to risk when guys like George Kittle, Evan Engram, and Kyle Pitts are still on the board.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR – San Francisco 49ers
Overall WR18
ESPN Ranking: 41 / Sleeper Ranking: 26 / NFL Ranking: 22
As of the time of this writing, Aiyuk is still not practicing. It’s a bad enough situation that head coach Kyle Shanahan has said they’re preparing to enter the season without Aiyuk and fellow holdout Trent Williams. That’s less than ideal.
If you drafted at any point before this and you took Aiyuk at ADP or higher, I’m sorry – but there was a significant risk at taking Aiyuk at cost all summer. All training camp we’ve had to listen about the disgruntled state of pay in the Bay Area, and while there have been hopeful stories being run left and right about heart-to-hearts with the front office, consideration of current offers on the table, potential trade partners, etc., etc. – nothing has come to fruition just yet. Aiyuk doesn’t have the leverage in this situation but seems to be sticking to his guns as the holdout continues. Even if he did return, I can’t imagine it’ll be on his terms, so him leaving this process disgruntled is certainly on the table. He could get traded, but that doesn’t guarantee his new environment will be better for him and his production either. It’s rough sledding no matter how you look at it.
Couple all of that in with the fact that the 49ers are in a desperate win-now mode, fellow WR Deebo Samuel is in a contract year, and San Francisco invested in the WR room with draftees Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing, and it puts a damper on Aiyuk and his WR18 ranking. You’d be wise to steer clear of this one.
*EDIT: Today news broke that the 49ers and Brandon Aiyuk have reached an agreement for 4 years, $120 million (with $76 million guaranteed in the extension). The drama is finally over, but I’m still not convinced Aiyuk finishes the season as WR18 overall. My money is on Deebo Samuel leading this unit in 2024 – we shall see.
Jalen Hurts, QB – Philadelphia Eagles
Overall QB3
ESPN Ranking: 27 / Sleeper Ranking: 35 / NFL Ranking: 35
What if it all really was Jason Kelce all along?
The longtime stalwart of a center on a strong offensive line has finally called it quits, leaving the Eagles in a bit of an unknown as the 2024 season approaches. Kellen Moore enters the picture as the new offensive coordinator, hopefully fixing a lukewarm unit from the year before, and shiny new RB Saquon Barkley leads the rushing attack alongside a multitude of weapons in the receiving room. Everything is looking up in Philly.
So why am I fading Hurts at ADP? Well, it’s namely for those same reasons I listed above. I’ll explain – it remains to be seen if the fabled “Tush Push” will work without Kelce at the tip of the spear. The Eagles still have a formidable o-line without him, but it remains to be seen if Philly can run that play with the same success as seasons prior. Take away those 15 rushing TDs and Hurts is a middle-of-the-pack QB at best, even with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith at WR. I also don’t think the Eagles front office handsomely paid Barkley (something the Eagles don’t typically do for RBs) to watch Hurts vulture goal-line touches, either. Moore will elevate the passing game, certainly, but at the projected price, you can’t tell me waiting for the likes of C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love, or Kyler Murray won’t feel better in the long run.
Nico Collins, WR – Houston Texans
Overall WR13
ESPN Ranking: 31 / Sleeper Ranking: 31 / NFL Ranking: 31
This WR corps situation reminds me of what’s going on in Chicago at the moment. They’re both chock-full of talent, which is great for their teams, but bad for fantasy football. The guessing game involved for who’s at the top and who’s fighting for target crumbs can be brutal, so I can’t blame you for being hesitant while picking through the options in these talented offenses. That being said, you don’t want to miss out, so you take your shot at the best bet. In Houston, I don’t think that’s Nico Collins.
Call me crazy, but I believe new addition Stefon Diggs balls out this year. I’m inclined to believe it was more of a scheme fit issue for his lack of production last season rather than an attitude problem. He’s a competitor, and a fiery one at that – and the numbers line up with Joe Brady’s reign marking the stall in Diggs’ output in Buffalo. Couple that with Tank Dell, the second-year breakout star who was producing fantastic numbers before his leg injury and who, by all accounts in camp, hasn’t missed a step with QB C.J. Stroud. Dell hit a stride in midseason where he was consistently giving top-12 WR numbers before his injury, while Collins remained very inconsistent even after Dell went down. I think the order here with the Texans is Dell, Diggs, & Collins – a far cry from the ADP Dell and Collins are currently going at.
Kyren Williams, RB – Los Angeles Rams
Overall RB7
ESPN Ranking: 15 / Sleeper Ranking: 15 / NFL Ranking: 18
I just can’t get behind drafting an RB with a top 20 pick who practically has a clone of himself waiting in the wings to take over. Williams won a massive amount of leagues for those lucky enough to claim him on the waiver wire last season, and while it was a great performance, I still feel like he’s riding that good grace without merit to the overall RB7 ranking.
Sean McVay is notoriously finicky with his backfield. Last year at this time, Cam Akers was the belle of the ball in LA (if you have to ask who Akers was, let alone where Akers is now, you’re only furthering my point). Blake Corum wasn’t drafted for nothing, and reports out of camp indicate McVay is extremely high on him and his potential, which coincidentally matches Williams and his game style. I can’t predict what the usage split will be, or if there will even be a split at all – I’m just saying that with all these variables, Williams with a second-rounder is simply too rich for my blood.
Photos courtesy of respective owners | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)