The first week of NFL football for 2024 is officially in the books, which means fantasy managers are already spiraling about how to fix their rosters. The good news is that the star player you drafted is fine, and you can take a breath heading into Week 2. The other good news is that for those of you who have space to improve your roster or need to make a move to fix the holes in your lineup that Week 1 revealed, my 5 Moves to Make article is here to help!
More than just your standard waiver wire article, 5 Moves to Make will highlight players to watch, cut, and trade for, as well as players you should prioritize before waivers run. It’s your one-stop shop for improving your team week to week. I am excited to bring this article to QB List, and you can look for it EVERY SINGLE TUESDAY MORNING!
Now grab your caffeine, put on your do not disturb Teams and Slack statuses, and let’s get better for Week 2 together.
1. Spend 50-60% of FAAB on JK Dobbins
JK Dobbins is BACK. One of the most exciting storylines from Week 1 of the NFL season was the return of the former Ohio State Buckeye. After an injury-riddled start to his career, Dobbins’s first start as a Charger was truly electric. Posting 135 rushing yards and leading the NFL in rush yards over expected (98) according to NFL Next Gen stats. Dobbins split the backfield touches fairly evenly with Gus Edwards, but Edwards was only able to compile 26 rush yards in one fewer touch. Dobbins’ big play ability was on full display, and while he does need to improve some of his conditioning to hit the home runs, he had runs of both 61 and 46 yards and posted three separate carries of 10 yards or more.
Now, he is a popular candidate in Waiver Wire articles, but it’s very important to know that you should not hesitate here. Dobbins has league-winning potential, and you should spend 50-60% of your FAAB to get him on your roster if you’re lucky enough to be in a league where he is available (50% rostered in Yahoo). I tend to be more aggressive in the early parts of the season, but that is when you can change the trajectory of your team! I am sure there is a little voice in your head that is already whispering in your ear, “He is gonna get hurt, don’t do it,” and while the health concerns are warranted, Dobbins is the only League Winner candidate on waivers right now. You can immediately insert him into your Week 2 lineup as a top option at running back.
2. Sell Xavier Worthy in Redraft Leagues
Xavier Worthy gave fantasy managers their first taste of lineup decision anguish in Week 1. Worthy posted 20.8 Full PPR fantasy points, racking up 47 receiving yards and 21 rush yards on his three touches. I want to be very clear: you are not selling Worthy for anything you can get. You only make this move if you have a manager paying top 15-20 wide receiver prices for him. The headline of Worthy’s Week 1 performance is exciting, but the rest of the story raises some concerns.
Worthy left last week’s game on pace for 34 touchdowns, but just 51 total touches. This is a performance you can’t draw many conclusions from aside from the fact that Xavier Worthy is fast, and he benefitted tremendously from a broken play. This is the type of performance that his profile coming out of college told us was possible: wildly efficient blow-up games and basement cellar floor games. I do think Worthy lands somewhere in the middle as an NFL talent, but Week 1 should have changed almost nothing for fantasy managers’ perspectives of him. The argument for Worthy is that this game should lead to more touches, and his three touches could reach the 6-8 touch range. That is possible, of course, but his profile tells us he still needs to develop his route running to be relied on regularly at the NFL level. Not only that, but he also needs to prove he can deal with physical and press coverage. Something that neither of his two big plays showed us he was capable of doing. The move right now is to sell for maximum value. IF you cannot get that value right now, then you hold.
A few potential targets I would be selling Worthy for, depending on roster construction: Dalton Kincaid, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ladd McConkey, George Pickens, and DJ Moore or Keenan Allen. For some of those names, you may need to add something small to Worthy, but it is worth it!
3. Trade for Keenan Allen
Keenan Allen was not a name fantasy managers were excited to have in their lineups or, if we were being honest, on their bench. The Bears offense looked out of sync and even lost at times. That being said, Caleb Williams will continue to improve each week, and Allen quietly had a 38% target share (11 targets), and that is with him missing time due to a minor injury that did not keep him off the field for too long. Before his injury, the numbers were even more impressive:
Bears Week 1 WR utilization prior to Keenan Allen injury on 7th drive (early data):
Keenan Allen: 81% routes, 44% targets 👀👀👀
D.J. Moore: 88%, 28%
Rome Odunze: 83%, 13%Allen: WOW.
Trailing script might have inflated things, but encouraging playing time for Odunze.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 8, 2024
As things stand now, Rome Odunze has an MRI on his knee scheduled at the time I write this, which could force him to miss time. Keenan Allen should feast in that scenario. I am going out of my way to acquire him in all of my leagues. He had an uncharacteristic drop in the red zone that would have made his lackluster box score more impressive. In maybe one of the least sexy moves I could recommend this week, trade Xavier Worthy for Keenan Allen+, and you could be in a much better spot to fight for a title come the playoffs.
4. Buy Dalton Kincaid
I owe many people an apology for touting Dalton Kincaid as my TE1 overall in Week 1. I was wrong this week. It hurts to give bad advice, but it also hurt me in a number of my leagues. The process was sound, though, when looking at how messy the Bills’ pass catchers are. Not only that but when diving deeper, Kincaid was on the field for 88% of Bill’s offensive snaps, a feat he only accomplished once all last season. It was a game in which he racked up ten catches and 81 receiving yards. There are much better days ahead for Dalton Kincaid. While in many leagues, the Kincaid manager may not be hitting the panic button quite yet, you can throw one of the more questionable Week 1 breakouts out there in a trade and see if you can cash in for a peripherally strong option in Dalton Kincaid.
Some players I would try to move for Kincaid: Xavier Worthy, Jerome Ford, Tony Pollard, Zamir White, Khalil Shakir, Chig Okonkwo, and Dallas Goedert.
5. ADD, DO NOT CUT Adonai Mitchell
This one will be brief. If you roster Adonai Mitchell, DO NOT CUT him. Instead, look to ADD him if he gets dropped and you have an extra spot on your bench. Mitchell saw five targets in his first-ever NFL game, which was good enough for a 26% target share. It was not a pretty result, but the usage was there. Not only that, but he could have had two touchdowns had Anthony Richardson not badly overthrown him. With the play style of Richardson, there will be some painful misses along the way, but Mitchell has the skill set to succeed, and if he can continue to build chemistry with his young Quarterback, the late season could be very special for Mitchell. For comparison, Alec Pierce, who had the boom game in Week 1, had only a 15.7% target share. The other piece here that is worth mentioning is that Josh Downs missed time, so Mitchell played more in the slot. When Downs does return, Mitchell will be playing on the outside more and will have increased chances to run those boom routes from which Pierce was able to benefit in Week 1. He belongs on your bench, not in your lineup, but do not let him sit on waivers in 12-person leagues. Brighter days are ahead for Mitchell, and you want to make sure you do not miss them!
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)