Welcome back to another edition of Beating the Spread! I’m Jake Roy, leading the BTS team again this season. I’m joined by two-time Beating the Spread participant Brennan Rampe and newcomer Jason Wolf. We’re here every weekend throughout the season and we’ll crown our champion at the end.
Beating the Spread is back! After a week off for the holidays, the crew is back and locked in a tight race for the 2023 title. Jason still leads the way, but a bad week could have him slip into last place. Teams’ motivations are starting to shift, with some teams benching starters and moving on to 2024. Other teams are fighting for the playoffs, doing everything they can to sneak into the wild card or secure a home playoff game. Luckily for us, the game is still unchanged – just pick winners.
You can play along in the comments or find us on Twitter (@Jake3Roy, @J_wolf_picks, and @PhdInNFL). Without further ado, here are the lines we’ll use for Week 17!
| Away | Home | Line | O/U |
| Lions | Cowboys | Cowboys -6.0 | 53.5 |
| Patriots | Bills | Bills -12.0 | 40.5 |
| Dolphins | Ravens | Ravens -3.5 | 47.5 |
| Titans | Texans | Texans -4.5 | 42.5 |
| Rams | Giants | Rams -6.0 | 41.5 |
| 49ers | Commanders | 49ers -13.5 | 48.5 |
| Cardinals | Eagles | Eagles -10.5 | 48.5 |
| Saints | Buccaneers | Buccaneers -3.0 | 41.5 |
| Panthers | Jaguars | Jaguars -6.5 | 37.5 |
| Falcons | Bears | Bears -3.0 | 37.5 |
| Raiders | Colts | Colts -3.0 | 43.5 |
| Steelers | Seahawks | Seahawks -3.5 | 41.5 |
| Chargers | Broncos | Broncos -5.5 | 39.5 |
| Bengals | Chiefs | Chiefs -7.0 | 44.5 |
| Packers | Vikings | Vikings -2.0 | 46.5 |
| Jake Roy (@Jake3Roy) | Brennan Rampe (@Phdinnfl) | Jason Wolf (@J_Wolf_picks) | |
| Pick #1 | Raiders +3.0 | Ravens -3.5 | Cowboys -6.0 |
| Pick #2 | Panthers +6.5 | Buccaneers -3.0 | Bills -12.0 |
| Pick #3 | Packers +2.0 | Rams -6.0 | Saints +3.0 |
| Record | 29-23-5 | 29-28 | 32-23-2 |
Analysis
Jacob Roy
Antonio Pierce has the Raiders playing hard. So much so that I would argue he deserves the head coaching job going forward. Despite the season being over for the Raiders, they seem like they want to go to bat for the interim coach and earn him a full-time position. They’re traveling to Indianapolis to take on the Colts on Sunday, in what I expect to be a tight game. The Colts’ defense can’t stop anyone, even the Falcons managed to put up almost 30 points last week. Given the Raiders’ run game, with or without Josh Jacobs, they should be able to take care of the ball and stay in this game. The defense is top ten in the league in scoring and is on fire, having just locked down the Chiefs and Chargers. It may be a letdown spot, but I like the Raiders to give the Colts a tough time on Sunday. LV +3.0
Picking the Panthers is ugly, but that’s the territory you deal with when you’re gambling. This game, and the Jaguars season, comes down to one major point: Trevor Lawrence is injured. He’s been hurt several times throughout the season, yet takes the field week after week to try to will his team to a victory. He’s not playing at 100%, and it’s making life difficult for the Jaguars. The Panthers come into this one without anything to play for, but they’re still fighting. They don’t own their own first-round pick, so all they can do is try to build some momentum for next season. The talent on the roster is certainly lacking, but the margins are so slim in the NFL that anyone can beat anyone on a given day. I’ll take the Panthers and the points, as ugly as that is. CAR +6.5
The season is slipping away for both the Packers and Vikings. It’s a playoff game for both of these teams, as the loser is eliminated from playoff contention. The Vikings are turning to Jaren Hall at quarterback on Sunday night after Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens couldn’t get the job done. To me, it feels like too little too late. Even playing at home, I like the Packers’ chances. Jordan Love is playing well, and the young receivers are starting to make an impact for Green Bay. The Packers managed to take the trap game in Carolina last week with their sights set on Minnesota. Now, they’ll have a chance to hop the Vikings in the standings and give themselves a chance going into the final week of the season. GB +2.0
Brennan Rampe
The Baltimore Ravens beat the San Francisco 49ers on the road, and that makes them the best team in the league at this moment. The Miami Dolphins beat the Dallas Cowboys and clinched a playoff spot. However, wide receiver Jaylen Waddle suffered a high ankle sprain and will likely miss the remainder of the regular season. That’ll hurt Miami’s offense in these final two weeks. Lamar Jackson is playing great despite several injuries at the running back position and losing Mark Andrews. He could win his second MVP. Baltimore seems to dominate every team that looks to be on their level. The Ravens have lost to the Dolphins in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, but I think it’ll be different this time. BAL -3.5
Inside the Numbers: The Ravens are 41-32-2 against the spread in conference games since 2018.
The Los Angeles Rams have been playing great recently. A healthy Matthew Stafford is still one of the best quarterbacks in the game, and these young draft picks are stepping up and being key contributors. Tommy DeVito was a fun story for the New York Giants, but Tyrod Taylor will start this week. It’s been a messy season for New York, as they have started three different quarterbacks. The offensive line is horrible and they’re shorthanded on weapons. They were able to hang around with the Philadelphia Eagles, but a lot of weird things happened in that matchup. Divisional games are always weird. I expect Los Angeles to go into MetLife Stadium and dominate, but we’ll see. LAR -6.0
Inside the Numbers: The Rams are 49-38-3 in conference games against the spread under Sean McVay.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers started off 4-7 at one point, but have now won four consecutive games. They’re very close to winning the NFC South. Baker Mayfield has been playing well and it has been a nice story to follow. The New Orleans Saints have been a disappointing team this season. Derek Carr was supposed to lead them to a NFC South title, but it looks like they’re going to fall short of doing that. Guys like Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, and Cameron Jordan are getting older. If this team was going to win a championship, it would’ve been with Drew Brees while he was still in the league. New Orleans’s window expired. Tampa Bay is the best team in this division, and I think that they’ll sweep their rival. TB -3.0
Inside the Numbers: The Buccaneers are 5-2-0 against the spread after a win in 2023.
Jason Wolf
Last week, the Lions were crowned Division Champions for the first time in 30 years after their victory over the Vikings. A good time was had celebrating the win but now they have to go on the road to play a Cowboys team that lost a heartbreaker to the Dolphins. Dallas will surely come out extra motivated to keep their division dreams alive but more realistically to secure a home game in the playoffs where they are a different beast. The Cowboys have absolutely crushed opponents at home, going 7-0 with an astounding average margin of victory of 24.4 points. The only team to give them any sort of challenge at home was the Seahawks a month ago. Since then, the Lions’ defense has been porous and now they get the Cowboys coming off two bad losses back at home. The spread might seem like a lot going up against a solid team like the Lions but the Cowboys should be able to have their way on offense while at least making things difficult for the Lions offense. Give me Dallas to cover a TD. DAL -6.0
I have been burned on multiple occasions trusting the Bills to cover a bigger spread this season but they are finally playing closer to their talent level and are a much better team than their record would suggest. If they could stop shooting themselves in the foot (huge if), they should beat the Patriots with ease. I know Bill Belichick is always an intimidating presence lurking in the shadows just waiting to scheme up something nasty for the opposing offense (especially division rivals) but after flukey wins against the Steelers and Broncos in two out of the last three weeks, I am expecting some return to normalcy in this one with Buffalo playing up to expectations and Bailey Zappe coming back down to earth. The Bills finally get their big win, taking this by over 14 points easily. BUF -12.0
This is my gut play of the week as I just don’t buy into the Buccaneers as much as everyone else seems to. Baker Mayfield is doing wonders with the offense but other than Mike Evans and Rachaad White, they really don’t have weapons on offense as Chris Godwin is a shell of himself. The Saints aren’t world-beaters themselves but I like their overall talent more than what Tampa Bay has on their end. The Buccaneers have been getting more impressive results working with less while the Saints have been disappointing with higher expectations and more talent on paper. I think this week produces some drama in the NFC South as the Saints beat the Bucs and throw chaos into the divisional mix going into the last week of the season; just the way the NFL likes it. Nothing the NFL likes more than winner-take-all games and I’m betting on the Saints (and Falcons) doing their part to set up some high-level drama for the week 18 finale. NO +3.0
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)