Beating the Spread: Picks for Week 10

Dean Abramson and Joe Hanretty sort through all of the games for Week 10 in the NFL, giving expert picks for six contests.

It’s week 10…week freaking 10?! We’re going to get through this together, now. What better way to do so than to gamble? With the identities of just about every team revealed, it’s been a bit smoother sailing for both Dean Abramson and I. In the last three weeks, we are 13-5 (11-1 in the last two) – not to brag. After witnessing the drubbing of the Panthers this past Thursday night, it looks like Pittsburgh has safely cemented themselves into the conversation for tops in the AFC with the Chiefs and Patriots. In the NFC, we still have the Rams and Saints sitting pretty with the rest of the conference jockeying for third fiddle. Is it Chicago, Minnesota, Carolina, or Philadelphia (we don’t trust Washington to pull this thing off). Last week we went 6-0 and now we’ve got a streak to uphold. (My picks in red, Dean’s in blue)

Note: All lines are provided by Westgate Sportsbook as of 12 a.m. Sunday.

Sunday, Nov. 11th


LA Chargers (-10) @ Oakland – [49.5] (Joe)

Do I really have to justify this pick? Oakland gave up on itself and its coach last week’s putrid performance against a San Francisco team that started a quarterback who had never played a meaningful down in this league. Props to QB Nick Mullens, but Oakland simply has no chance in this one. I’d hesitate to bet the points here, considering the Raiders’ penchant for, you know, not scoring.

Buffalo @ NY Jets (-7) – [36.5] (Dean lock)

3-0 in the last 3 weeks picking againstQB Sam Darnold, so why stop now? Darnold is out this week, so I’m picking the Jets to get better. QB Nathan Peterman will ruin the game for the Bills and Darnold will not be around to ruin the game for the Jets. Putting all my faith in QB Josh McCown.

Detroit @ Chicago (-7) – [44.5] (Joe Lock)

Chicago’s last win against Detroit came in October of 2016. Seems pretty odd, but it’s true. I think that streak ends Sunday and with it, a 10 point spread. Both DE Khalil Mack and WR Allen Robinson will be returning to the lineup after missing (resting) the last couple of weeks, which should factor in pretty heavily. That, and the fact that QB Matt Stafford is not good.

New England (-6.5) @ Tennessee – [46.5] (Dean Lock)

Plain and simple here. Tennessee’s offense will not be able to keep up with New England’s. Patriots will pick on Malcolm Butler consistently and get it done again.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-3) – [46.5] (Joe)

This is a lose/lose situation for Jacksonville and a “loser goes home” game for Indianapolis – quite the storyline, I know. Jacksonville has bigger issues besides their quarterback this year and the Colts, however impressive they’ve looked, are still digging out of a pretty large hole. I’ve got to give the edge to QB Andrew Luck who is looking to have his best season ever in the horseshoe uni.

Washington @ Tampa Bay (-3.5) – [51.5] (Dean Lock)

The logic here is the same as the Pats-Titans, Washington will not be able to hang with Tampa Bay. The anemic Washington offense mustered up a mere 14 points against a Falcons defense that has been outright horrendous this year. Tampa Bay is 100% capable of outgunning Washington.

The Rest:

1:00 PM ET

New Orleans (-6) @ Cincinnati – [54]

Atlanta (-5.5) @ Cleveland – [53.5]

Arizona @ Kansas City (-16.5) – [49.5]

4:25 PM ET

Miami (+10.5) @ Green Bay – [47.5]

Seattle (+9) @ LA Rams – [50.5]

8:20 PM ET

Dallas @ Philadelphia (-7.5) – [43]


Monday, November 12th

NY Giants @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) – [44.5]

(This game may not be played)

Game Totals We Love:


Buffalo @ NY Jets – [36.5]

Atlanta (-6) @ Cleveland – [53.5]


LA Chargers @ Oakland – [49.5]

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