Beating the Spread: Picks for Week 11

This is posting late (apologies) due to technical difficulties, but being honest gamblers, we did not change anything. We had a pretty rough day, made possible by awful coaching and incompetent game management. We went 5-7 overall and 3-3 in our locks last week. We’ll be more prompt with this piece for the Thanksgiving week/weekend. (Dean’s picks in blue, Joe’s in red)




Note: All lines are provided by Westgate Sportsbook as of 12 a.m. Sunday.

Sunday, Nov. 18th


Carolina (-4.5) @ Detroit – [49.5] 

I refuse to believe that Carolina is the team that showed up last week against Pittsburgh. Regardless, the Lions cannot stop the run and the Panthers have been running the ball well the last few weeks. Combine that with the issues going on with Matt Patricia, it makes for a Carolina rout.

Pittsburgh (-5.5) @ Jacksonville – [46.5] 

Pittsburgh is really good. Jacksonville is really bad. The Jags are averaging 13 points per game over their last 5 games, the Steelers are averaging 35 over that span. I do not see a path where Jacksonville can keep up with the Steelers.

Philadelphia @ New Orleans (-7.5) – [56] 

New Orleans is the arguably the best team in football. Philadelphia is lethargic and still getting respect as the reigning champs; they have not looked the part this year. The Eagles’ defense struggles to force turnovers while the Saints do not turn it over often. My money is on the team with only two blemishes against the spread this season.

Kansas City (+3.5) @ LA Rams – [63.5]

Well, you can’t get much better than this game. As I’ve mentioned before, the Rams are more of a liability on the defensive end, in my opinion. The Chiefs have gotten better each week and I think they are able to get enough stops at the end to upset LA.

Tennessee @ Indianapolis (-1.5) – [49]

I’m sticking with the Colts, again. I respect what Tennessee has done over the last few weeks, but I think the Colts are going to be too much for Mike Vrabel and his squad today. The game is in Indy and QB Andrew Luck can outplay the Titan’s Mariota any day.

Dallas @ Atlanta (-3.5) – [48.5]

I love Atlanta being at home for this game. Although their season took a fatal blow last week in Cleveland, I think they have enough fight to put Dallas in panic mode. Dallas has looked more effective on both sides of the ball lately, but I think if Atlanta can deter Dallas from leaning on RB Zeke Elliott, than QB Matt Ryan will outgun QB Dak Prescott.

The Rest:

1:00 PM ET

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-4) – [43.5]

Tampa Bay @ NY Giants (-2.5) – [52.5]

Houston (-3) @ Washington – [42.5]

4:05 PM ET

Denver @ LA Chargers (-7) – [46.5]

Oakland @ Arizona (-5.5) – [40.5]

8:20 PM ET

Minnesota @ Chicago (-2.5) – [44.5]


Game Totals We Love:


Kansas City @ LA Rams (-3.5) – [63.5]

Minnesota @ Chicago (-2.5) – [44.5]


Tampa Bay @ NY Giants (-1.5) – [52.5]

Joe Hanretty

Joe hails from the great sports city of Chicago. He needs few things in life other than brats, pizza and the exhilaration of watching a sporting event (soccer excluded). He enjoys metal and smooth jazz. You can find him on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn.


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