Beating the Spread: Picks for Week 12
As fortune would have it, we started out this week 12 slate by going 3-0 on Thanksgiving day. They weren’t tough decisions, but the games certainly made it fairly interesting. We are now heading into the last quarter of the season, as incredibly sobering as that fact is. Obviously, Dean and I haven’t been perfect, but hopefully, we’ve given you something to lean on for your decision-making. Let’s get to our picks. As usual, Dean’s picks will be in blue and mine are in red.
Note: All lines are provided by Westgate Sportsbook as of 12 a.m. Sunday.
Sunday, Nov. 25th
Miami @ Indianapolis (-7.5) – 
This has all the makings of a trap game: coming off a blowout win, Miami coming off a bye, Tannehill returns to the lineup. The Dolphins haven’t shined on the road this year while the Colts are peaking at the right time. Andrew Luck and his team can’t afford to lose games at this point in the season.
New England (-10) @ NY Jets – [46.5]
It’s QB Tom Brady, it’s HC Bill Belichick, it’s after a bye and it’s after a terrible loss to the Tennessee Titans. All this is building up towards an inevitable blowout win against a very maligned New York Jets team that won’t have a plethora of skill players available. This isn’t a defining game for New England, but it will help them get the positive taste of winning back and propel them towards a stronger finish atop their division, once again. It’s looking like they won’t have the luxury of a bye once the playoffs start, but if they want any shot of that, they’ll have to win out, at least. It starts Sunday, 35 – 13.
Pittsburgh (-3) @ Denver – [46.5]
PITTSBURGH IS A MACHINE. They’re winning the games they need to win and somehow found a way to win their game last week. That was as bad as the Steelers will look, and they still won by 4. Steelers are gonna pour it on Sunday.
NY Giants (+5) @ Philadelphia – 
For the life of me, I don’t understand this line at all. Sure, the Giants don’t have the better quarterback, but the defense and sheer talent are surely above what Philadelphia has currently. The Eagles were held to seven points against the Saints in week 11 – pretty putrid performance, all around. I think the Giants have enough to even beat the Eagles, not just cover this peculiar line. Odell Beckham, Jr. should have a nice day and the rookie sensation, Saquon Barkley should be able to feast, as well. 28 – 26, Giants.
Seattle (+3.5) @ Carolina – [46.5]
Seattle in a must-win game. Carolina has been struggling. I think Seattle wins this game outright and the Panthers struggles continue. At worst this is a 3 point loss so take that extra half point and run with it!
Tennessee (+6) @ Houston – [41.5]
Houston barely beat the Redskins last week. This is after the Redskins had to insert Colt McCoy after Alex Smith pretty much had his career ended. It’s nothing against the defense of Houston, but rather the very average performances from QB Deshaun Watson and the offense. WR Demaryius Thomas had zero catches on one target! How is that possible? Watson finished with 208 yards and posted a lower QBR than the quarterback who had his leg split in two. I think the Texans will win the game, but it’s only because they might face Blaine Gabbert or a very injured Marcus Mariota. The Titans should cover with ease: 22 – 20, Texans.
1:00 PM ET
San Francisco @ Tampa Bay (-3) – 
Oakland @ Baltimore (-10.5) – [42.5]
Jacksonville @ Buffalo (+3) – 
Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-2.5) – [46.5]
4:05 PM ET
Arizona @ LA Chargers (-12.5) – [40.5]
8:20 PM ET
Green Bay @ Minnesota (-3.5) – [47.5]
Game Totals We Love:
Kansas City @ LA Rams (-3.5) – [63.5]
Minnesota @ Chicago (-2.5) – [44.5]
Tampa Bay @ NY Giants (-1.5) – [52.5]