Beating the Spread: Picks for Week 5

Photo by Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire

Like I said seven days ago: this league is very unpredictable. However, I think water is beginning to find its level. We went 5-7 last week, bringing our season record to 22-34 with plenty of time to make up ground. Let’s get into it.

Note: All lines are provided by Westgate Sportsbook

 

Mortal Locks:

Atlanta at Pittsburgh — no line

The Steelers have serious issues on defense, as I’m sure we’ve all witnessed at some point this year. Atlanta has had some tough losses, including last week against Cincinnati. Atlanta has suffered from poor defensive play, too, but if not for the horrible injury luck, I think things go differently in the close games they’ve lost.

Minnesota at Philadelphia (-3)

I am actually picking the Vikings to win this one. The Eagles failed to beat the Titans last week, and I’m simply not buying the act, yet. If the Vikings can keep QB Kirk Cousins upright, things should go smoothly.

Denver at New York Jets (-2.5)

I’m not sure how this line got to where it is for ESPN, but here we are. Denver has to start stacking wins if it wants to keep up with Kansas City or Los Angeles. The Jets provide a grand opportunity to start a streak and build some confidence after narrowly losing to the Chiefs last week.

Green Bay (-1.5) at Detroit

Despite the injuries to the receiving corp for Green Bay, I trust QB Aaron Rodgers to beat Detroit by at least a field goal. Expect RB/WR Ty Montgomery to have a solid game with WRs Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison expected to sit out.

Washington at New Orleans (-7)

Is there anything more sure in this world than QB Drew Brees in a dome? Not really. The real question is if they will cover this spread. The way the defense has played, thus far, does not lend much confidence. However, with RB Mark Ingram returning, it should allow for some more dynamic play-calling by the Saints.

 

The Rest

Sunday, Oct. 7

1 p.m. ET

Baltimore at Cleveland — no line

Jacksonville at Kansas City (-3)

Tennessee (-3) at Buffalo

New York Giants at Carolina (-6.5)

Miami at Cincinnati (-5.5)

4:05 p.m. ET

Oakland at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)

4:25 p.m. ET

Arizona at San Francisco (-4)

Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Seattle

8:20 p.m. ET

Dallas at Houston (-3.5)