Beating the Spread: Picks for Week 7

Well, my entrance in to the gambling world did not go as planned. The Bears tried multiple times to give the game to Brock Osweiler and the Dolphins; it took them until OT but they eventually succeeded. Additionally, the Rams built a lead to cover the original spread but allowed a backdoor cover that sent 2 of my 3 locks into the trash. Here’s hoping for a bounce back week.

Note: All lines are provided by Westgate Sportsbook as of 12 a.m. Sunday.

 

Sunday, Oct. 21

 

Pick-6:

 

Los Angeles (N) @ San Francisco (+9.5) – [52]

 

The reasoning behind this is plain and simple. The Rams’ defense has been suspect all year, especially the last few weeks. Kyle Shanahan is far too good at his job to let this team lose by double digits this week.

 

New England (-3) @ Chicago – [49]

 

Rob Gronkowski is out of this game, but James White and Chris Hogan will now factor in heavily, I think. The Bears defense is only as good as their quarterback pressure and that’ll be hard to apply if Tom Brady starts peppering in quick passes like I think he will.

 

Minnesota (-3.5) @ New York (A) – [46]

 

This one is more of a personal pick as I am not a Sam Darnold believer. He has clearly been up and down during his first season, however I think this week presents a challenge that he has yet to see. This is a more balanced team than he has experienced yet and he will be forced to throw the ball to keep up with the Vikings’ offense. This will be the most well-coached team he has faced to this point and I do not think he is ready for the challenge.

 

Buffalo (+7.5) @ Indianapolis – [43]

 

Buffalo is being led by long-time veteran Derek Anderson. A lot of people think this is a death sentence, but I think the Bills play inspired and keep it competitive.

 

New York (N) @ Atlanta (-4) (On Monday) – [54.5]

 

The Atlanta offense has been unbelievably good this season while the Giants’ offense has been a heaping pile of garbage. Although the Falcon defense may be bad enough to make Eli Manning look decent, Matt Ryan has been excellent of late. This season, he has completed 90% of passes in the Red Zone with 12 touchdowns and zero interception. Over the last 4 weeks, he leads the NFL in Passing Yards. There is no way the Giants’ offense can keep pace with Atlanta’s, even with a banged up Atlanta D.

 

Cincinnati (+5.5) @ Kansas City-[58]

 

Kansas City will win this game, but I like the Bengals’ defense enough to warrant confidence in covering. Hopefully they don’t get dirty (Burfict), of course.

 

The Rest:

 

1 p.m. ET

Cleveland (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay – [50.5]

Carolina (+4.5) @ Philadelphia – [45.5]

Detroit @ Miami (+3) – [47]

Houston @ Jacksonville (-4.5) – [41.5]

 

4:05 p.m. ET

New Orleans @ Baltimore (-2.5) – [49.5]

4:25 p.m. ET

Dallas @ Washington (-1.5) – [41.5]

 

Game Totals We Love:

 

Over:

Los Angeles (N) @ San Francisco (+9.5) – [52]

Cleveland (+4.0) @ Tampa Bay – [50.5]

New England (-3) @ Chicago – [49]

 

Under:

Dallas @ Washington (-1.5) – [41.5]

Dean Abramson

Die hard Dodger fan. Newly retired baseball player. Current slow pitch enthusiast.

sdf

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