Beating the Spread: Week 10 Picks

Welcome to the Week 10 edition of Beating the Spread. Jeff Berckes is traveling and Erik is focusing his energy on getting readers of this site ready for the fantasy playoffs, so I’ll be filling in for this week.

Our entire trio is over 50% for the first time all year. Jeff has taken a commanding lead in our staff picks contest after a 5-0 week. I believe he’s 8-2 since he started traveling a few weeks ago, so he may need to stay on the road until this hot streak ends.

Things get tricky in week 10 with 6 teams on bye and, therefore, fewer games to choose from. There are also some teams that I absolutely want nothing to do with right now. Atlanta is playing for exercise. The Jets and Browns are a mess from the owner on down. Chicago? Well, more on them to follow. The point is, opportunities are much more limited than they were back in week 1. We have to pick 5 games every week, but that doesn’t mean you have to.

The following lines were captured on Wednesday. Betting lines can vary by site and move throughout the week so check yours to make sure that you have similar information.

 

Week 10 betting lines:

 

Date Away Team Home Team Line O/U
Thursday, 11/7 LAC OAK LAC -1 49
Sunday, 11/10 KC TEN KC -6 48
BUF CLE CLE -3 40
ARI TB TB -4.5 52
NYG NYJ NYG -2.5 43.5
ATL NO NO -13 51.5
BAL CIN BAL -10 44.5
CAR GB GB -5 47
DET CHI CHI -2.5 41.5
MIA IND IND -10.5 44
LAR PIT LAR -3.5 44
MIN DAL DAL -3 47.5
  Monday, 11/11 SEA SF SF -6 46.5

 

Staff Picks

Analyst Jeff Berckes Erik Smith Tom Schweitzer
Pick #1 NO -13 BUF +3 TEN +6
Pick #2 BAL -10 MIA/IND under 44 CHI -2.5
Pick #3 PIT +3.5 PIT +3.5 IND -10.5
Pick #4 TB/ARI over 52 DET +2.5 PIT +3.5
Pick #5 SEA +6 SEA +6 MIN +3
2019 Record 27-18 25-20 23-22

 

Analysis:

 

Jeff Berckes: The Saints coming out of a bye week with a healthy Alvin Kamara and Drew Brees draw the lifeless Falcons at home. It’s the biggest line of the week but I’m going to take it as I simply don’t see the Falcons D putting up much of a fight in the Superdome (NO -13). Another big line but this time for a road team as the Ravens coming off their big W against the Patriots travel to winless Cincinnati. The Ravens should run roughshod over that Bengals defense and still without AJ Green I’m not sure what they can do to keep it close (BAL -10). The Steelers have been more competitive than I assumed they would be and I just don’t love the Rams on the road as Goff’s splits continue to bother me. Steelers keep it competitive with a shot to win it outright (PIT +3.5). The Buccaneers host the Cardinals in the highest over/ under of the week. I love how both offenses are playing right now. Give me the TB/ARI over 52. Finally, I’m excited about this MNF game (not something I say often) and what should be a fun game. The 49ers deserve to get the benefit of the doubt but 6 points feel like too many. I’ll take SEA +6 as Russell Wilson is probably the MVP frontrunner halfway through the year.

 

Erik Smith: This one feels like a trap, but I don’t see why the Bills are a full three-point underdog to the Browns. The Browns will find a way to lose it while the Bills ride impressive rookie Devin Singletary and a good defense to the road “upset” (Buf +3). The Colts are good at grinding out close wins, and while it might not be close against the Dolphins, I expect them to play this one close to the vest. With Jacoby Brissett possibly hobbled and no T.Y. Hilton, I expect a low scoring game, so I’ll take MIA/IND Under 44 points scored. The Steelers are playing confident football, and I don’t know how they keep doing it, but I like the points here. Jared Goff struggles on the road, and the offense will miss Brandin Cooks. PIT +3.5 is the pick. Taking the road team in a divisional rivalry is scary, but Matthew Stafford is playing a different game than Mitchell Trubisky right now. It might be ugly, but I’ll take DET +2.5. Finally, Russell Wilson is playing at an MVP level, so getting six points sounds great to me. San Fransisco has been tough at home, but the Seahawks will be their biggest challenge yet. I like Wilson in a game where Seattle will throw the kitchen sink at the 49ers, and at worst I think he can sneak out a backdoor cover. SEA +6.

 

Tom Schweitzer: Something doesn’t feel right about this Patrick Mahomes situation. It certainly looks like he’s going to play, but I’m not convinced he’s 100% or that he’ll be effective in his first game back. Even if he is and the Chiefs get a lead, I expect Andy Reid to get conservative in an attempt to protect his QB. The Titans (+6) seem to play a close game every week (usually decided by a controversial call), so I’ll bet on that trend to continue. I’m on the other side of the Bears/Lions game as Erik. When the general public falls in love with an underdog, more often than not we see the favorite take care of business. It’s hard to imagine Trubisky and the Bears (-2.5) offense play any worse than they have the last few weeks and the Lions defense has been a sieve of late. I don’t understand why line makers suddenly seem to love the Dolphins. A month ago we were wondering if they could become the first 30 point underdog in the modern NFL. Now they’re getting respect because they beat the Jets? Even with Brian Hoyer, I think the Colts (-10.5) will be able to dominate this game at home. I’ll join Erik in picking against Jared Goff on the road. The Steelers (+3.5) have a solid defense and the Rams haven’t shown enough to be more than a field goal road favorite. Dallas has put together two nice games in a row, but before that, they lost to the Jets. They don’t have much of a home-field advantage and I think the Vikings (+3) are the better team, to I’ll take them to close out my week.

 


 

What are your favorite picks of the week? Put in your comments below to play along. We’ll be updating our records all season!

 

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)

Tom (@QBLTom)

Tom lives in an alternate universe where the Bostick onside kick never happened and Nick Foles still plays for the Eagles. There is mounting evidence that Brady is a system QB. #GPG

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