Beating the Spread: Week 6 Picks

Our Week 4 Beat the Spread column is ready to go for your consideration as you put in your weekly bets!

Finally. The QB List team all had a good week for a composite score of 10-5. That includes my London swing and a miss on the under in that game, destroyed by a 97-yard Raiders drive against the Bears in the final minutes. Cool.

On to Week 6 as we have the two worst teams in football (Washington and Miami) facing off and some really interesting football in Kansas City, Minnesota, and LA (the Rams, not the Chargers). I’ll be in attendance at the Mahomes-Watson scoring extravaganza, hoping both offenses show up and light up the scoreboard. It’s the highest over/under of the week and you just know both guys will be extra motivated to beat their foe in what might just be the next great QB rivalry. Good games and hopefully some good lines to pick from. Let’s dig in.

The following lines were captured on Tuesday. Betting lines can vary by site and move throughout the week so check yours to make sure that you have similar information.

Week 4 betting lines:

Away Team Home Team Line O/U
NY Giants New England NE -17 42.5
Carolina Tampa Bay CAR -2 48
Seattle Cleveland SEA -1 47.5
Houston Kansas City KC -5.5 55.5
Washington Miami WAS -3.5 41
Philadelphia Minnesota MIN -3 44
New Orleans Jacksonville JAX -1 44.5
Cincinnati Baltimore BAL -11.5 48
San Francisco LA Rams LAR -3.5 49
Atlanta Arizona ATL -2.5 52
Tennessee Denver DEN -2.5 39
Dallas NY Jets DAL -9 43.5
Pittsburgh LA Chargers LAC -6.5 41.5
Detroit Green Bay GB -5 47

Staff Picks

Analyst Jeff Berckes Erik Smith Tom Schweitzer
Pick #1 HOU +5.5 ATL -2.5 GB -5
Pick #2 SEA -1 MIA +3.5 CLE +1
Pick #3 PHI +3 PHI +3 BAL -11.5
Pick #4 SF +3.5 DET +5 TEN +2.5
Pick #5 NE -17 NYG/NE Over 42.5 NE -17
2019 Record 13-12 14-11 12-13

Analysis:

 

Jeff Berckes: I thought about going with the over in the Chiefs – Texans game but 55.5 is a big number. Instead, I’m going to bet that the Texans can keep it close in what I believe should be a back and forth affair. I’d be interested in finding a prop bet for the number of pass plays over 40 yards in this one, but I’ll settle for the road dog cover (HOU +5.5). Seattle looks like they are playing well and are favored on the road against the preseason darling Browns. The way the Seattle offense looks right now, they won’t have any trouble controlling the ball against Cleveland and Baker Mayfield is simply a mess (SEA -1). Minnesota wants to run the ball with Dalvin Cook and keep the game out of the hands of Kirk Cousins. Unfortunately, Philly is really good at stopping the run. While the Vikings defense is a good unit, the Eagles are creative and Carson Wentz is a dynamic player – give me another road dog, this time getting a field goal (PHI +3). I was really impressed with the 49ers last week against the Browns and while they may not have a “quality win” on their resume yet, they’re well-coached with an offense that’s clicking. The Jared Goff home splits worry me that I’m going to regret this pick, but a divisional game featuring two good teams, I like the 9ers to at least keep it close (SF +3.5). So that’s four road teams for me this week, something of a gamble in and of itself. Let’s even it out with Thursday night’s game and taking the home team to cover that giant spread. The Patriots are clearly a great team and they draw a Giants team missing most of their starters at the skill positions. Bill Belichick’s defense is destroying worlds and licking its chops against a rookie QB. Welcome to the NFL, Danny Dimes (NE -17).

 

Erik Smith: Atlanta may be playing for Dan Quinn’s job, while the Cardinals are building for the future. The Falcons should be desperate, and if they are ever going to figure things out it should be this week against a lousy Cardinals defense. I hate backing a team like this on the road, but I’ll take ATL -2.5. I know Miami is bad, maybe the worst we’ve seen. But Washington just got its head coach fired, and I just can’t see favoring them on the road against anyone. I mainly just want to take a side on this hilarious game, and maybe Josh Rosen starts showing signs of life in this one. Give me MIA +3.5 in a game that neither team really wants to win. I think Philadelphia is a better team than Minnesota, and though picking against the Vikings at home with a good defense and a good running game is scary, I like the Eagles chances here of winning outright. At worst they should be able to keep this close, so PHI +3 is the pick. We often like to freak out about weather ahead of time, and often it turns out to be nothing. While it looks like a nasty day in New England, I think somehow we get over 42.5 to hit in this one, even if the Patriots do most of the scoring themselves. Finally, I see the Monday night game being a black and blue divisional matchup where the defenses shine. While I do like the Packers more than the Lions, I think the Lions can keep it close, and five points feel like too much. Look for both teams to run the ball often, and DET +5 seems like a good bet.

 

Tom Schweitzer: I love this week’s slate, a surefire sign I’m about to fall flat on my face. I’m only picking sides again, starting with Patriots -17 on Thursday. Daniel Jones is not the savior for the Giants. He got exposed by the Vikings last week and now faces an even tougher challenge, facing a Bill Belichick defense on the road. I think the Seahawks are incredibly fortunate to be 4-1 at this stage, while Cleveland (+1) is not as bad as they looked on Monday night. I’d be surprised if the Browns don’t get a win at home. I’m going to continue betting against the Bengals until they prove they can protect Andy Dalton or play defense. I’ll take the Ravens (-11.5) in a potential blowout. The Titans (+2.5) only lost last week because they missed 4 field goals. Had they won last week, I think they might be a small road favorite in Denver at 3-2. I’ll take the points with the (probably) better team. Finally, it looks like the Packers (-5) offense is starting to get in sync. The Lions are an underrated, scrappy team, but that’s reflected in this surprisingly low point spread.

 


 

What are your favorite picks of the week? Put in your comments below to play along. We’ll be updating our records all season!

 

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)

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