One of the most difficult positions to draft in fantasy football is your DST, or a team’s defense & special teams. The chances of finding a DST you can set and forget in your lineup are minimal, so many fantasy managers resort to “streaming” defenses. Streaming refers to consistently adding and dropping players at a given position to attempt to field weekly high-upside starters. Successful streaming relies on the manager’s ability to identify short-term potential, as most streaming targets are utilized briefly before being replaced in favor of better matchups.
To help identify matchup strength, I used a combination of stats from the first ten weeks of the NFL season since I knew I needed multiple sources to make a respectable aggregate ranking. I first charted fantasy points allowed to the DST position using FantasyPros. For that list, I assigned numerical values 1-32 that corresponded to the team’s current standing vs. the rest of the NFL, with 1 being the worst and 32 being the best. (Example: Tennessee allows the most fantasy points to opposing DST: value 1, Baltimore allows the least: value 32) I’m trying something new this week: doubling the weight that points allowed has on the calculation. I then used PFF’s offensive grades as my second data set, assigning numerical values similarly. Knowing I wanted a third variable, after some deliberation, I settled on yards-per-play, a measure of the average explosiveness of an offense. Once all three lists had their numerical values, I took each team’s average of the three values to assign an overall offensive score to each team. Those offensive scores were used to calculate an overall matchup score across the next four weeks, which served as the foundation for the rankings below. Enough with the boring stuff, let’s dive in!
Multi-Week Starters
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: BYE, New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders
When calculating the matchup ranks for the next four weeks, I found not one, not two, but THREE teams that surpassed the previous mark for the easiest coming schedule. The team with by far the easiest upcoming four-week schedule is the Buccaneers, who have a case for the easiest four-week stretch of any team the entire season. After enjoying a well-timed bye week, the Bucs will dive headfirst into three straight matchups brimming with potential. When facing the Bucs, most teams attempt to throw the ball early, often due to a stifling run defense led by DT Vita Vea and company. The good news is that none of the teams on the slate can throw the ball, with all three ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in passing yards per game. If Tampa Bay can replicate what the three opponents have allowed to opposing DSTs, then they will have a very productive three-week stretch averaging well over 9 fantasy points per game, an excellent mark for a defense.
Houston Texans: Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, BYE
With all of the hype surrounding the Texans in the 2024 offseason, a 6-4 start to the season would be considered underperforming by some fans’ standards. After a challenging 1-3 months, the Texans are eyeing their upcoming schedule, intending to achieve a three-game winning streak, which seems very attainable considering their opponents. The Cowboys have now officially lost QB Dak Prescott for the remainder of the season, and in backup QB Cooper Rush’s first start for the team, they allowed the opposing DST to score 20 fantasy points. The Titans have been on top of the list of “most beneficial opponents” for weeks, and with the decision seemingly to return to Will Levis behind center, more huge games for opposing defenses can be on the horizon. Jacksonville had been a middle-of-the-pack offense for most of the year, and with reports floating around regarding QB Trevor Lawrence potentially sitting out the remainder of the season, it may get really bad fast. The Jags’ backup QB, Mac Jones, has been a turnover machine over the last two years, including a three-turnover game last week in his first fill-in start for TLaw. If Mac takes over the offense, the Jaguars will instantly catapult to among the most beneficial teams to target while streaming defenses. When looking at the three games ahead, it’s easy to see why the Texans also helped set a new record for the easiest upcoming schedules.
New Orleans Saints: Cleveland Browns, BYE, Los Angeles Rams, New York Giants
It’s been a tough year for the Saints, who have dealt with many injuries to key players all over the field. In an attempt to get back on track, ownership fired the HC before last week’s game against Atlanta, and to everyone’s surprise, the Saints won the game! The upcoming schedule for New Orleans should go a long way towards helping the team get where it wants to be, as well as great for fantasy managers looking for a defensive streaming target. Opening against the Browns will provide the Saints the opportunity to create sacks and turnovers, something Jameis Winston and the team have struggled with. After the bye week, the Saints will have to lock in against the top-notch WR duo of the Rams. Ending the month against the Giants is a sight every team would welcome however, if you believe the rumors circulating, the team could look different with an alleged QB change on the horizon. Even if Drew Lock is starting in the Big Apple by the time NoLa comes to town, the Saints will be in a position to deliver a top-10 fantasy performance.
Washington Commanders: Philidelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, BYE
The biggest surprise of the 2024 season so far has been the Commanders, who went through a major shakeup during the offseason and now sit at 7-3 with a terrific chance to make the playoffs just a year after selecting 2nd in the draft. Their next three games could heavily affect whether they stay on that trajectory or plummet back to the Earth. Back-to-back divisional matchups against the Eagles and Cowboys bring varying degrees of difficulty. The Eagles boast one of the more talent-heavy offensive attacks in the NFL, with the ability to beat you on the ground or through the air. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have severely underperformed expectations and now have lost their franchise QB for the remainder of the season. After two divisional games, it will be nice to relax and kick back against the Titans, who, at points, seem to be attempting to allow the opposing DST to score fantasy points. All in all, it makes for one of the strongest four-week schedules facing a defense that we’ve seen to date.
Denver Broncos: Atlanta Falcons, Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns, BYE
It’s always fun when I can highlight a league-leading defense in this article of upcoming matchups because it means the rich are about to get richer, and that is exactly what is happening with the Broncos over the following four weeks. Fantasy managers will have to wait a week, however, for the #2 DST in fantasy to be fully unleashed, as Week 11’s matchup against the Falcons will be anything but easy. The Falcons currently sit as PFF’s #2 graded offense due in part to a stifling ground attack led by second-year star Bijan Robinson. Once Denver gets past Atlanta, it’s wheels up over the following two weeks, with Vegas and Cleveland falling in the bottom 5 graded offenses through 10 weeks. The overall ineptitude of both offenses combined with Denver’s proven ability to string together turnovers and stops should make for a very positive outcome for fantasy managers who stick with the Broncos over the coming weeks.
Best of the Rest
Miami Dolphins: Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, New York Jets
If we were only looking at the next two weeks of matchups, it’s a very good possibility that Miami’s defense would have ended up leading this list of best upcoming schedules. The Raiders and Patriots have to combine their per-game stats to attempt to parallel the performance of the league leaders. If you combine the points scored average for the two teams, you lead the league in scoring by less than 3 points! When you have that level of incompetence on the other side, your DST is primed for an explosion of fantasy points. Look for Miami to remain a terrific weekly option over the following two weeks. After that, the skies darken over South Beach. The Packers bring a dynamic passing attack quarterbacked by gunslinger Jordan Love. Following that matchup with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets will bring another talent-loaded offense for the Dolphins to contend with. Ultimately, the upcoming schedule is mediocre, with two outstanding matchups followed by two that could have been better.
New York Jets: Indianapolis Colts, BYE, Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins
After spending the entire 2024 offseason being told how great the Jets defense is, I’m sure many are surprised at the 18th-ranked fantasy performance they’ve provided through 10 weeks. For a team with multiple players capable and deserving of 1st team all-pro nods, you expect more than 5.9 fantasy points a game. Hopefully, the following weeks can help get the Jets back on track, with three matchups all skewing toward favorable. While none of the upcoming matchups stand out as especially wonderful, each has its reason for positivity. All three teams allow top-12 weekly scoring outputs to opposing defenses, and all three teams have proven susceptible to injuries, handicapping the offense until the injured player returns. With the string of positive matchups on the horizon, maybe now is the time to trust the Jets’ talented defense to come through for your fantasy team.
Week 11 Streamers
Detroit Lions: Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers
I want to preface this by saying this could easily turn into a very strong three-week stretch for the Lions’ defense, dependent on the play of the Colts in week 12. Starting with week 11, the Jaguars are now quarterbacked by Michael McCorkle Jones, aka Mac Jones, and just surrendered an abysmal 13 fantasy points last week in his first start. Mac has and continues to be one of the most turnover-prone quarterbacks in the NFL, and going against the NFL’s best Lions isn’t going to help anything, with him more than likely forced to play from behind. After the Lions predictably destroy the Jaguars, Anthony Richardson and the Colts bring the next challenge and the one with the most variance. We have seen incredible performances from Richardson, and we’ve also seen some duds. Chicago is another team with up-and-down performances this year, and depending on how these games go, we could see Detroit’s defense among the league leaders every week over the next month.
Green Bay Packers: Chicago Bears, San Fransisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions
Despite all the hype around the Bears during the offseason, they have failed to achieve a semblance of what was expected of them. Caleb Williams looks terrified behind what is probably the worst offensive line in the league, and you can see bad habits forming as you watch. Over the past two weeks, the Bears have allowed 15 sacks… 15!!!! And those 15 came against the Cardinals and Patriots, two teams not known for a high-pressure rate. Look for the Packers to dominate this game on the defensive side before they head into a three-week firing squad of matchups against San Fran, Miami, And Detroit.
Photos by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire, Dave Adomson/Unsplash, and Ben Hershey/Unsplash | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@DJFreddie10 on BlueSky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)