One of the most difficult positions to draft in fantasy football is your DST, or a team’s defense & special teams. The chances of finding a DST you can set and forget in your lineup are minimal, so many fantasy managers resort to “streaming” defenses. Streaming refers to consistently adding and dropping players at a given position to attempt to field weekly high-upside starters. Successful streaming relies on the manager’s ability to identify short-term potential, as most streaming targets are utilized briefly before being replaced in favor of better matchups.
To help identify matchup strength, I used a combination of stats from the first eleven weeks of the NFL season since I knew I needed multiple sources to make a respectable aggregate ranking. I first charted fantasy points allowed to the DST position using FantasyPros. For that list, I assigned numerical values 1-32 that corresponded to the team’s current standing vs. the rest of the NFL, with 1 being the worst and 32 being the best. (Example: Tennessee allows the most fantasy points to opposing DST: value 1, Baltimore allows the least: value 32) I tried something new in week ten: doubling the weight that points allowed has on the calculation, and I was pleased with the results, so I will continue that going forward. I then used PFF’s offensive grades as my second data set, assigning numerical values similarly. Knowing I wanted a third variable, after some deliberation, I settled on yards-per-play, a measure of the average explosiveness of an offense. Once all three lists had their numerical values, I took each team’s average of the three values to assign an overall offensive score to each team. Those offensive scores were used to calculate an overall matchup score across the next four weeks, which served as the foundation for the rankings below. Enough with the boring stuff, let’s dive in!
Multi-Week Starters
Denver Broncos: Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns, BYE, Indianapolis Colts
The Broncos’ defense, led by standout cornerback Pat Surtain II, has been exceptional this year, achieving three games with over 15 fantasy points and averaging 9.4 points per game. With their schedule over the next four games, do not be surprised to see that trend continue. Denver’s first two games come against the 2nd and 3rd most advantageous matchups for opposing defenses with the Raiders and Browns. Both the Raiders and Browns allow 10+ fantasy points to the opposing DST, and with Denver’s elite production at the position, we can only expect fantasy magic. Following the bye week, a matchup with Anthony Richardson and the Colts will depend on which ARich shows up that week. His inconsistency behind center has been prevalent all season, and the Colts’ offense becomes stagnant and turnover-prone when he is off his game. If the Broncos run into an off game from Richardson, all three games could result in terrific fantasy performances.
Houston Texans: Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, BYE, Miami Dolphins
Houston’s defense has been the definition of hot and cold for fantasy this season, with six performances over 9 fantasy points, but all five of their other games resulted in 4 fantasy points or less. The Texans have been especially hot the last two weeks, first scoring double-digit fantasy points against one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses in Detroit. Then, last week, the defense scored a touchdown and had a dominant showing against the Cowboys. The next three matchups should provide fantasy managers plenty of confidence in loading the Texans into their lineups. The Titans have remained the most advantageous matchups for fantasy defenses for most of the year and are currently allowing a whopping 11.1 fantasy points per game. The Jaguars had to replace the injured Trevor Lawrence with Mac Jones, and as a result, the offense has taken a massive downswing. The Dolphins’ bevy of speed on their offense always poses a danger to defenses, but they have failed to live up to their pre-season projections to this point in the year. Look for the Texans to remain a top weekly option at DST for the following month.
Washington Commanders: Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, BYE, New Orleans Saints
In a surprise season, the Commanders sit at 7-4 in prime position to earn a playoff spot. This season’s success has mostly been attributed to a destructive offense led by rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Despite the offense’s successes, the defense has quietly been playing better than expected, albeit not so much for fantasy purposes, as they rank 20th on the season in fantasy points scored. However, the following weeks provide optimism for fantasy managers who may not have many options on waivers as the Commanders face a streak of offenses either lacking talent or hampered by injury. The Cowboys have had the opposite 2024 experience as the Commanders and are all but eliminated from playoff contention after losing franchise QB Dak Prescott for the year. With fill-in QB Cooper Rush behind center, the Cowboys have allowed an average of 17 fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last two weeks. Following that with the Titans, who allow 11+ fantasy points, it will be no surprise if the Commanders’ defense is among the highest-scoring over the next two weeks. Following the bye week with the Saints, who are missing their top four wideouts and several other key contributors, should make for another positive matchup for an otherwise struggling defense.
Cincinnati Bengals: BYE, Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans
I said the Commanders’ defense has been hot and cold, well the Bengals’ defense has just been cold. Many fans and analysts blame them for the Bengals’ 4-7 start to the season, and it is hard to disagree with the offense scoring among the highest in the NFL, yet the team’s season-long point differential is a measly +1. The Bengals have two upcoming matchups against some of the worst offenses in the NFL, so maybe that can offer the upside needed to make the defense fantasy viable. The Cowboys and Titans are a two-game stretch that could make a fantasy manager swoon. Both have been allowing astronomical scoring outputs, and the Bengals’ defense still has playmakers like edge-rusher Trey Hendrickson, who leads the league in sacks and can influence the outcome of a game and swing a fantasy performance to the positive. If you’re out of options, chances are you’ll have a shot at the Bengals’ defense to help you in your troubled time.
Kansas City Chiefs: Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns
The Chiefs’ defense is a little bit of a strange one… On the field, they are among the best in the NFL, in fantasy, they’re mediocre at best. With the upcoming slate of teams, it’s going to be difficult for the Chiefs defense NOT to perform well for fantasy football. The Panthers have surprisingly fallen to 12th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. However, they have faced several easier opponents who do not perform at the same level that Kansas City will. The Raiders and Browns have already been highlighted as two of the top three fantasy matchups for opposing defenses, and both allow over 10 points per game. With three of the next four matchups being ranked in the top 12, the Chiefs should have no problem performing for fantasy managers over the next month.
Best of the Rest
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders, LA Chargers
Another subpar defense facing three outstanding matchups and the Chargers. The Giants have finally decided to bench turnover maestro Daniel Jones in favor of Tommy DeVito, aka Tommy Cutlets. The Giants’ offense has been among the lowest-performing in the league, and nobody is expecting them to turn it around with a QB change. Bryce Young and the Panthers have won a few games, but is that enough to erase years of unprecedented poor production? The Raiders don’t have much going for them outside of standout rookie TE Brock Bowers and don’t pose much threat even to a lackluster defense like the Bucs. Although the Buccaneers have not performed well for fantasy managers, the upcoming stretch of three games presents an opportunity for redemption.
Jacksonville Jaguars: BYE, Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets
Despite the stats claiming this is one of the best schedules facing any team, the teams ahead are stacked with talent. The Texans have faced multiple injuries, especially at the wide receiver position, with both stars Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs missing significant time. When the team is at full strength, they can compete with the best in the league. The Titans are the Titans. We’ve covered their poor performance at length, and their matchup with the Jags screams for a game people don’t want to watch. Ending the month against the vastly underperforming Jets offers another team with a stack of talent on the offense side. Containing Breece Hall, Garrett Wison, and Davante Adams is a challenge for any team, but the Jets have also proven that talent doesn’t always equal success, so we will see how the Jags handle that matchup. Hopefully, the Jaguars can string together a couple of usable weeks out of this positive schedule.
Arizona Cardinals: Seattle Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots
It’s a bad time to be a Cardinals defensive back. With DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson all coming to town for three weeks straight. This gauntlet of wide receivers looks scary, but the Vikings and Seahawks both rank as top 11 matchups for opposing defenses. The Patriots surprisingly only appear in one team on this list despite ranking as the 6th best matchup in points allowed and the 3rd best matchup in my adjusted rankings. The Patriots have no semblance of an offense line and thus struggle in all aspects of conducting their rudimentary offense. If the Cardinals can take advantage of these matchup weaknesses, they could prove usable for fantasy managers over the next month.
Special Shoutout
Pittsburgh Steelers: Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Philidelphia Eagles
This will be an easy write-up for the strong Pittsburgh defense led by former DPOY TJ Watt. The Steelers can be played almost every week regardless of matchup and have proven so with 9.7 fantasy points scored per game. While the upcoming schedule doesn’t qualify the Steelers to make this list, the two matchups against the Browns are more than enough for a shoutout. If you have the Steelers’ defense, you’re probably starting them and should continue to do so with confidence.
Photos by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire, Dave Adomson/Unsplash, and Ben Hershey/Unsplash | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@DJFreddie10 on BlueSky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)