Best Defensive Matchups Weeks 13-16

Streaming defense this year? Darian takes a look at the best matchups for Weeks 13-16 to help maximize the position.

One of the most difficult positions to draft in fantasy football is your DST, or a team’s defense & special teams. The chances of finding a DST you can set and forget in your lineup are minimal, so many fantasy managers resort to “streaming” defenses. Streaming refers to consistently adding and dropping players at a given position to attempt to field weekly high-upside starters.  Successful streaming relies on the manager’s ability to identify short-term potential, as most streaming targets are utilized briefly before being replaced in favor of better matchups.

To help identify matchup strength, I used a combination of stats from the first twelve weeks of the NFL season since I knew I needed multiple sources to make a respectable aggregate ranking. I first charted fantasy points allowed to the DST position using FantasyPros. For that list, I assigned numerical values 1-32 that corresponded to the team’s current standing vs. the rest of the NFL, with 1 being the worst and 32 being the best. (Example: Tennessee allows the most fantasy points to opposing DST: value 1, Baltimore allows the least: value 32) I tried something new in week ten: doubling the weight that points allowed has on the calculation, and I was pleased with the results, so I will continue that going forward. I then used PFF’s offensive grades as my second data set, assigning numerical values similarly. Knowing I wanted a third variable, after some deliberation, I settled on yards-per-play, a measure of the average explosiveness of an offense. Once all three lists had their numerical values, I took each team’s average of the three values to assign an overall offensive score to each team. Those offensive scores were used to calculate an overall matchup score across the next four weeks, which served as the foundation for the rankings below. Enough with the boring stuff, let’s dive in!

 

Multi-Week Starters

 

Cincinnati Bengals: Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns

With three upcoming matchups against teams that rank in the bottom six of my aggregate offensive scores, Cincinnati easily takes the top spot in the upcoming defensive schedules list this week. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, Cincinnati has had many easy matchups this year, and their defense simply hasn’t shown up. After a tough but manageable matchup against the Steelers, a three-game stretch featuring the Cowboys, Titans, and Browns offers tremendous turnover and scoring potential for the struggling defense. While it will be difficult to trust the Bengals’ defense, it would be worth considering due to the upcoming schedule.

 

Indianapolis Colts: New England Patriots, BYE, Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans

Like the Bengals above, the Colts’ defensive schedule is boosted by matchups against two of the three worst teams in my rankings. The Patriots have an offensive line so dysfunctional that this week, they cut a starting guard who had played over 90% of offensive snaps in 2024. An offensive line like that is a pass-rushers dream, and look for the Colts to take full advantage. Another rookie quarterback matchup features Bo Nix and the rising Broncos after the bye week, which may lead to a different level of performance. Ending the month against the Titans is exactly the matchup fantasy managers have been targeting while streaming defenses all year. The Titans had one of their most impressive games of the season last week in a win over Houston while still allowing the Texans’ DST to score a touchdown and over 15 fantasy points. Two outstanding matchups may propel the Colts into your starting lineups over the next month.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, Las Vegas Raiders

If you think this schedule looks juicy with the Titans, Raiders, and imposing Jets on the docket, wait until next week when the Texans are replaced by… the Tennessee Titans. The Texans remain dangerous but have seen their performance dip below expectation in 2024. The matchups against the Titans and Raiders will see the Jaguars ranked top-10 in weekly DST rankings. Mass amounts of rumors are circulating between the Jets and QB Aaron Rodgers, specifically in regards to a potential benching of the quarterback. Which Rodgers and the Jets will we see against the Jags? The one who dropped 27 points against the Colts, or the one who dropped 9 against the Cardinals? The Raiders have had another loss after having starting QB Gardner Minshew go down with injury, leaving Vegas searching for options. The Jaguars should have ample opportunity to perform well for fantasy managers in multiple upcoming weeks.

 

 

Best of the Rest

 

Arizona Cardinals: Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers

The Cardinals’ defense has been on a tear for fantasy, scoring double-digit points in three straight contests. Despite the playmaking weapons such as Justin Jefferson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba facing them over the following two weeks, the Cardinals can continue their great performance over the next month. Vikings QB Sam Darnold has cooled off significantly after his hot start, and the Seahawks are currently allowing the 6th most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Add the 3-9 Patriots and the 3-8 Panthers to that list, and things keep looking up for a Cardinals team that is peaking at the right time of the year.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders, LA Chargers, Dallas Cowboys

It was nice to see Tampa’s defense score double-digit fantasy points last week after averaging 3.25 over their previous four games. Hopefully, it’s a sign of things to come as Tampa faces a string of favorable matchups in the coming weeks. The Panthers and Raiders have been established as some of the lowest-performing offenses in 2024. The Chargers certainly pose a threat, but the Bucs’ strong rush defense is a perfect counter to a team that wants to run the ball. Ending the month against the Cowboys should be a treat. Despite the team’s 34-point performance last week against Washington, the offense still struggled to move the ball for most of that game, putting up a mere 322 yards. If you find yourself in need, the Bucs may be able to offer you a solution as a weekly streamer.

 

Kansas City Chiefs: Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans

Is the Chiefs’ defense starting to crack? After being among the league’s most dominant scoring defenses, they allowed Bryce Young to score 27 points the week after allowing 30 points for the first time since Week 4 in 2022. The Chiefs hope they can bounce back in real life and fantasy, and their schedule may be able to assist. Matchups against the Raiders and Browns will almost certainly result in decent fantasy performances, at the least, while more difficult matchups against the Chargers and Texans may result in fantasy managers looking elsewhere for streamers. A mixed bag of games, but the advantageous matchups facing the Chiefs over the next month are impossible to ignore.

 

 

Week 13 Streamers

 

Denver Broncos: Cleveland Browns

The Denver Broncos defense currently has seven games over 10 fantasy points this season. That is the same number as WR19 George Pickens and one more than RB19 D’Andre Swift. Terrific production from a defense that appears to have regained the form it had two years ago when it was among the league’s most dangerous. In Week 13, the Broncos face the Browns, a team currently allowing opponents DST to average 10.1 fantasy points per game. The Browns have improved since the addition of QB Jameis Winston to the offense but still have a high turnover rate and struggle in protection. When an offense surrendering such high numbers faces a defense already scoring abnormally well, fireworks can occur.

 

 

Photos by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire, Dave Adomson/Unsplash, and Ben Hershey/Unsplash | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@DJFreddie10 on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)

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