One of the most difficult positions to draft in fantasy football is your DST, or a team’s defense & special teams. The chances of finding a DST you can set and forget in your lineup are minimal, so many fantasy managers resort to “streaming” defenses. Streaming refers to consistently adding and dropping players at a given position to attempt to field weekly high-upside starters. Successful streaming relies on the manager’s ability to identify short-term potential, as most streaming targets are utilized briefly before being replaced in favor of better matchups.
To help identify matchup strength, I used a combination of stats from the first thirteen weeks of the NFL season since I knew I needed multiple sources to make a respectable aggregate ranking. I first charted fantasy points allowed to the DST position using FantasyPros. For that list, I assigned numerical values 1-32 that corresponded to the team’s current standing vs. the rest of the NFL, with 1 being the worst and 32 being the best. (Example: Tennessee allows the most fantasy points to opposing DST: value 1, Baltimore allows the least: value 32) I tried something new in week ten: doubling the weight that points allowed has on the calculation, and I was pleased with the results, so I will continue that going forward. I then used PFF’s offensive grades as my second data set, assigning numerical values similarly. Knowing I wanted a third variable, after some deliberation, I settled on yards-per-play, a measure of the average explosiveness of an offense. Once all three lists had their numerical values, I took each team’s average of the three values to assign an overall offensive score to each team. Those offensive scores were used to calculate an overall matchup score across the next four weeks, which served as the foundation for the rankings below. Enough with the boring stuff, let’s dive in!
Multi-Week Starters
Jacksonville Jaguars: Tennessee Titans, NY Jets, LV Raiders, Tennessee Titans
It would not be easy to find a bigger cake-walk of an upcoming schedule than that facing the Jaguars defense over the next month. Two matchups against the Titans, currently allowing 11.4 points per game to opposing defenses, offer a foundation for fantasy success that would be impossible elsewhere. Will Levis has continued to be turnover-prone, and the weapons struggle to find success consistently. The Jets’ offense has the talent to compete with the best in the league, but their offensive performance is stagnant at best, resulting in an above-average matchup for the Jaguars. The Raiders offense is down to barely any weapons, with Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers accounting for much of the offensive production. This stretch of matchups is the best we have seen in my time writing this article, and we shouldn’t be surprised if the Jaguars have a terrific stretch of fantasy performances.
Cincinnati Bengals: Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos
Despite being the 29th-ranked scoring defense for fantasy this year, the Bengals have the opportunity to finish strong for the fantasy playoffs. Over the next month, the Bengals will face three of the seven best matchups for fantasy defenses, including the top two. The Cowboys haven’t had a good season, but since the loss of Dak Prescott, they have fallen off a cliff offensively. We all know how the Titans treat opposing defenses like royalty. The Browns offer an interesting challenge, shown last week when QB Jameis Winston threw for over 475 yards and two pick-sixes. Depending on how Jameis plays, the Bengals will have ample opportunity to score fantasy points. Bo Nix may have taken over the top spot for NFL Rookie of the Year and has the Broncos playing great, bringing a tough matchup to the Bengals. Three key matchups will give the Bengals opportunities to impress fantasy managers during crucial weeks.
Indianapolis Colts: BYE, Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans, New York Giants
If you’re looking for a defense over the last two weeks of the season, almost none will have better matchups than the Colts. After a bye week and a game against Bo Nix and the surging Broncos, Indianapolis will find itself in games with two of the three best matchups for fantasy defenses. The Titans have been the #1 team to play against, allowing a dismal 11.4 fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Giants haven’t been much better, allowing over 10 points per game after starting three starting QBs through the first thirteen weeks. With back-to-back matchups against opponents who allow double-digit fantasy points to defenses, it could be worth stashing the Colts’ DST before other members of your league snatch them up.
Best of the Rest
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Las Vegas Raiders, LA Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Carolina Panthers
The Buccaneer defense has been quite underwhelming this year and currently sits among the worst pass defenses in the league. Luckily for them, the teams on their upcoming schedule are not teams that present much threat through the air. The Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell has struggled since being thrust into the starting spot, presenting a solid opportunity to the Bucs to create turnovers and sack opportunities. The Chargers’ run-heavy approach will be a welcome sight for Vita Vea and company. The Cowboys and Panthers each rank in the bottom half of my adjusted rankings and close the month with a pair of plus matchups for the Bucs’ defense. If you’re slim on options, Tampa Bay may be able to help you out down the stretch.
Arizona Cardinals: Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, LA Rams
The Cardinals have quietly been one of the better fantasy defenses this season, especially over their last four matchups, averaging over 10 points per game during that span. Fantasy managers should look for that trend to continue when looking at their upcoming schedule. The Seahawks, despite a bevy of talent on the offensive side, have been struggling and currently allow the 5th most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The following matchup is against rookie QB Drake Maye and the Patriots, whose horrific offensive line and archaic play-calling have resulted in one of the least productive offenses in recent history. The Panthers began the season on one of the worst stretches in NFL history but have suddenly found themselves looking like a regular offense over the past few weeks. If Bryce Young regresses to where he was a few weeks back, they will offer another terrific opportunity to the Cardinals’ defense. Those three matchups are strong enough to put Arizona near the top of the easiest upcoming schedules.
Atlanta Falcons: Minnesota Vikings, Las Vegas Raiders, NY Giants, Washington Commanders
If you’re looking to pair a team with the Colts, the Falcons could fit the bill. They should be available in a high number of leagues, and the upcoming matchups offer enough upside to force them into consideration for weekly play, at least for a couple of weeks. The Vikings, after a historic start, have slowed down significantly in offensive output. The Raiders and Giants offer back-to-back matchups that should place the Falcons high on weekly rankings lists. Riding a matchup like the Raiders before swapping to a team like Indianapolis for the final two weeks could be a recipe for a fantasy championship.
Week 14 Desperation Stream
Tennessee Titans: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Titans face off with the Jaguars in week fourteen, offering one of the few positive opportunities for the Titans’ defense to end the fantasy season. With Trevor Lawrence headed to IR, Mac Jones will start for the Jags in his place against the Titans. Throughout his career, Mac has averaged one turnover and almost two sacks per game, allowing opposing defenses to score a solid fantasy output for free. Hopefully, the Titans’ defense can take advantage of the positive matchup and show up for managers who need the weekly fill-in.
Photos by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire, Dave Adomson/Unsplash, and Ben Hershey/Unsplash | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@DJFreddie10 on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)
Would you pick pick up LV or JAX for weeks 16 and 17 or stay with DEN?