One of the most difficult positions to draft in fantasy football is your defense, or a team’s defense & special teams. The chances of finding a defense you can set and forget in your lineup are minimal, so many fantasy managers resort to “streaming” defenses. Streaming refers to consistently adding and dropping players at a given position to attempt to field weekly high-upside starters. Successful streaming relies on the manager’s ability to identify short-term potential, as most streaming targets are utilized briefly before being replaced in favor of better matchups.
To help identify matchup strength I used a combination of stats from the first five weeks of the NFL season since I knew I needed multiple sources to make a respectable aggregate ranking. I first charted fantasy points allowed to the DST position, using FantasyPros. For that list, I assigned numerical values 1-32 that corresponded to the team’s current standing vs. the rest of the NFL with 1 being the worst and 32 being the best. (Example: Tennessee allows the most fantasy points to opposing DST: value 1, Baltimore allows the least: value 32) I then used PFF’s offensive grades as my second data set, assigning numerical values in the same manner. Knowing I wanted a third variable, after some deliberation I settled on yards-per-play, a measure of the average explosiveness of an offense. Once all three lists had their numerical values, I took each team’s average of the three values to assign an overall offensive score to each team. Those offensive scores were used to calculate an overall matchup score across the next four weeks, which served as the foundation for the rankings below. Enough with the boring stuff, let’s dive in!
Multi-Week Starters
Buffalo Bills: NY Jets, Tennessee Titans, Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins
The Buffalo Bills are tied for 10th in the NFL in fantasy points-per-game from the DST, a spot nobody expected them to be entering the season. Tough matchups against the Texans and Ravens have slowed the engine on the Bills’ hype train, but the next four weeks present winnable games and the best opposing schedule for their defense. The Jets have been anemic on offense this season and have fired their HC but left OC Nathaniel Hackett in-role moving forward. Whether the Titans start Will Levis or Mason Rudolph at quarterback won’t matter, as both present a top opportunity for the defense. Week 9’s matchup against the Dolphins is the most interesting week, with many speculating Tua Tagovailoa will be returning the week prior and elevating the Dolphins’ offense above its league-bottom status. Before their tough matchups in the last two weeks the Bills were a top-4 scoring DST on the season, don’t be surprised if we see them make a push back toward the top of the rankings over the next few weeks.
Cincinnati Bengals: NY Giants, Cleveland Browns, Philidelphia Eagles, Las Vegas Raiders
When I said the Bills had the best opposing schedule for their defense that was a small lie because Cincinnati tied with them in my model. Some may argue the Bengals’ upcoming schedule is better than Buffalo’s because nobody is coming back from injury to bail out any of the bottom teams that Cinci has on the docket. Matchups against the Giants and Browns bring two of the lowest-graded offenses led by two of the lowest-graded QBs. Giants QB Daniel Jones is averaging a turnover a game, and Browns QB Deshaun Watson averaging almost two per game presents wonderful opportunities for the Bengals’ defense. The Eagles’ offense is a threat on paper but has yet to live up to expectations thus far. Even if the Week 8 matchup with Jalen Hurts doesn’t go well for Cinci, Week 9 may bring a Davante Adams-less Raiders to town offering one of the highest potential matchups of the week for any DST.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Las Vegas Raiders, NY Jets, NY Giants, BYE
If you drafted or picked up the Steelers’ defense before this week there is a pretty good chance you’ve been enjoying their #6 ranked performance so far and I’m here to tell you it’s going to get even better over the coming weeks. The Raiders now have rumors surrounding the trading of star WR Davante Adams and a possible benching of QB Gardner Minshew. The Jets just fired their HC and are bottom-8 in scoring per game through five weeks. The Giants have one beacon of hope, but rookie WR Malik Nabers can only do so much, especially against a top-notch defense like the Steelers. The point is, the three weeks before Pittsburgh’s BYE should all provide fantasy managers with excellent results.
Best of the Rest
Indianapolis Colts: Tennessee Titans, Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings
Indianapolis is one of the most exciting teams to watch in the NFL this year. Part of that reason is their defense can’t seem to stop anyone from scoring points, currently allowing the 8th most points per game this season. The upcoming schedule offers fantasy managers and fans a sign of hope. The Titans bring with them a question mark at quarterback, with each option seemingly worse than the last. Indianapolis also gets the blessing of being the final team to face the Dolphins with QB Tua Tagovailoa on IR, a matchup that’s proven fruitful for every team that opposed them. The Texans and Vikings boast two of the most dangerous skill position groups across the NFL and will present a challenge to the Colts’ DST.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Chicago Bears, NE Patriots, Green Bay Packers, Philidelphia Eagles
Back-to-back matchups against rookie QBs is what’s facing the Jaguars after news broke Tuesday the Patriots are planning to start Drake Maye in Week 6 and forward. Matchups against rookie QBs on teams ranked bottom-four in my offensive score model created for this article. The Bears and the Patriots have been inefficient offenses who have struggled to move the ball and score. The Packers and Eagles will be bigger obstacles, each presenting their strengths designed to break down opposing defenses. Similar to the Colts above, the next two weeks are so strong they raise the Jaguars to the top of the 2nd tier of upcoming DST schedules.
New England Patriots: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, NY Jets, Tennessee Titans
This is the second year in a row the Patriots’ defense has done its best to carry a dysfunctional offense through an NFL season but to no avail. Maybe 3rd-overall draft pick Drake Maye can help turn the offense into one that can score at least 15 or more points a game, giving the defense a breather once in a while. These next four weeks have some promise for Patriots fans and fantasy managers, with two matchups against league-bottom offenses and two against those in the middle of the pack. The Texans and Jags have had some explosive games, but have also been proven beatable by strong defenses. The real juicy matchups come later with the Jets and Titans. If the Patriots’ offense can help them, expect their defense to be more than usable over those two weeks against subpar offenses.
Arizona Cardinals: Green Bay Packers, LA Chargers, Maimi Dolphins, Chicago Bears
The Cardinals’ upcoming schedule contains a large question mark that could majorly impact their usability over the next four weeks. As long as Jordan Love is in at QB for the Packers, they will remain a bottom opponent for DST in fantasy. The Chargers are who they claimed to be coming into the season, a slow methodical team built on defense and running the ball. That can play well for fantasy DST as slow and methodical often means low scoring. The big question mark comes in Week 8, also known as the potential return week for Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa. If Tua is inserted back into that offense, most predict they will return to the high-scoring team they were before his injury. This could leave Arizona’s defense with only one great matchup over the coming weeks, the Chicago Bears. The Bears will offer a good opportunity but is the three-week wait worth it over selecting other teams who could help in the meantime?
Philidelphia Eagles: Cleveland Browns, NY Giants, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars
Speaking of offering good opportunities in the meantime, the Browns and Giants two-game slate is one of the most favorable you could find in the entire league. The Eagles will have the opportunity to go against two quarterbacks who have a combined 13 turnovers through five weeks and are leading some of the least effective offensive attacks in the NFL. The Bengals and Joe Burrow are one of the most explosive passing games in NFL history and will be no slouch in week eight. The following week Trevor Lawrence, who currently has four turnovers, will offer the Eagles another ample opportunity to score fantasy points.
New Orleans Saints: Tampa Bay Bucs, Denver Broncos, LA Chargers, Carolina Panthers
After a lightning-quick start to the season, it would appear New Orleans has cooled off a little. Hopefully, a strong upcoming schedule for their defense can help get them back on that same pace they had to begin the year. The Bucs Mike Evans has a well-documented history with the Saints CB Marshon Lattimore, and Lattimore has historically been on the winning end of those battles. If he can maintain that success the Saints could have a surprisingly strong week against Tampa. The following 3 matchups fall on the more beneficial side, especially the week 9 matchup against the Panthers. After dropping 36 points in Andy Dalton’s first start with the team this year, they have combined for 34 over the last two weeks. The Saints’ strong defensive talent should have no problem remaining relevant for fantasy over the next 4 weeks.
New York Jets: Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, Houston Texans
Nobody is doubting the talent of the Jets’ defense. From Quinnen Williams to Sauce Gardner, there are some dawgs on this defense. That makes it even sweeter when you see a beneficial schedule on the horizon. The Bills have been hot and cold, with Josh Allen sometimes throwing four TDs in the first half and sometimes struggling to throw the ball four yards. Steelers OC Arthur Smith is once again running a slow offense rankings bottom-8 in yards per play. The Patriots shine the brightest in the Jets’ upcoming matchup, with rookie QB Drake Maye making one of the first starts of his young career against the Jets’ top-notch defense. The upcoming schedule with the strength of talent will continue making the Jets a viable play in fantasy.
Washington Commanders: Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, NY Giants
I have a feeling that next week the Commanders’ defense is going to be amongst the highest rated in my model. Following a matchup against the toughest opponent in the Ravens, three weeks of smooth sailing. The Panthers have cooled off since the Red Rocket’s surge. The Bears bring with them a matchup of the top-2 selections in 2024’s NFL draft with Caleb Williams set to square off against Jayden Daniels for what many hope to be the first of many in what may become a storied rivalry. The Commanders will be looking to repeat the first matchup with their divisional rival Giants, having been able to hold them to only field goals.
Honorable Mention
Detroit Lions: Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans, Green Bay Packers
Los Angeles Rams: BYE, Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles Chargers: Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, NO Saints, Cleveland Browns
Houston Texans: New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, NY Jets
Week 6 Streamer Only
Chicago Bears: Jacksonville Jaguars, BYE, Washington Commanders, Arizona Cardinals
It’s no secret that the Bears have a quality defense, they’re currently the #4 scoring DST in fantasy football. The Week 6 matchup against the Jags should keep them amongst the league leaders for at least another week. After the BYE week, they face two tough matchups in the Commanders and Cardinals. The Commanders have been one of the toughest matchups for opposing DST through five weeks, tied with the Lions as the 2nd-toughest opponent in my adjusted matchup score. Arizona isn’t much easier as Kyler Murray presents a similar high rushing upside that has been proven difficult to stop. While the Bears are great to use in Week 6, looking elsewhere after the BYE may be the best way to proceed.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)