One of the most difficult positions to draft in fantasy football is your DST, or a team’s defense & special teams. The chances of finding a DST you can set and forget in your lineup are minimal, so many fantasy managers resort to “streaming” defenses. Streaming refers to consistently adding and dropping players at a given position to attempt to field weekly high-upside starters. Successful streaming relies on the manager’s ability to identify short-term potential, as most streaming targets are utilized briefly before being replaced in favor of better matchups.
To help identify matchup strength, I used a combination of stats from the first six weeks of the NFL season since I knew I needed multiple sources to make a respectable aggregate ranking. I first charted fantasy points allowed to the DST position using FantasyPros. For that list, I assigned numerical values 1-32 that corresponded to the team’s current standing vs. the rest of the NFL, with 1 being the worst and 32 being the best. (Example: Tennessee allows the most fantasy points to opposing DST: value 1, Baltimore allows the least: value 32) I then used PFF’s offensive grades as my second data set, assigning numerical values in the same manner. Knowing I wanted a third variable, after some deliberation, I settled on yards-per-play, a measure of the average explosiveness of an offense. Once all three lists had their numerical values, I took each team’s average of the three values to assign an overall offensive score to each team. Those offensive scores were used to calculate an overall matchup score across the next four weeks, which served as the foundation for the rankings below. Enough with the boring stuff, let’s dive in!
Multi-week Starters
Los Angeles Chargers: Arizona Cardinals, NO Saints, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans
Normally, when I calculate the matchup scores for this article, it’s a pretty steady drop in the quality of matchups from best to worst. This week went a little differently, with all six of these “multi-week starters” scoring very closely to one another and creating a multiple-point advantage over the other 26 teams. The team to emerge at the top was the Chargers, a fact that should please managers who own PFF’s #10 ranked defense through six weeks. LA starts the month out in the desert with a matchup against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. The Cardinals may be missing rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr, which would make the toughest matchup facing the Chargers over the next month a little easier. The Saints have struggled since their 2-0 start to the season, and with starting QB Derek Carr predicted to be sidelined for the game against LA, the Chargers will have an even better prospect ahead. The Browns and Titans are no strangers to this article, and with back-to-back matchups against them, I would not be surprised to see the Chargers ranked the #1 play at DST in both weeks. The Chargers next month not only has some of the easiest matchups, but the matchups that would be tougher are expected to be simpler due to injury.
Arizona Cardinals: LA Chargers, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears, NY Jets
Arizona tied with the Patriots for the 2nd-most favorable upcoming schedule but, like two other teams in this article, have the added fear that Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa could return before their matchup. If Tua is back in the lineup, the Dolphins will hopefully go from a bottom-feeding offense back to the high-flying & thrilling offense we’ve come to love or at least appreciate for fantasy purposes. Chicago hasn’t performed well against anyone but the Jaguars, who remain one of the easiest matchups for NFL offenses to expose. With news breaking of the Jets acquiring WR Davante Adams from the Raiders to reunite with Aaron Rodgers, it will be interesting to see if that helps the Jets rise above their current ranking among the league’s worst offenses.
New England Patriots: Jacksonville Jaguars, NY Jets, Tennessee Titans, Chicago Bears
If the Patriots’ new offense, led by rookie QB Drake Maye, can do anything to help the defense, they may have a chance of being a startable fantasy DST for the next month. The trip to London to face Trevor Lawrence and the struggling Jaguars is a fun one, with fans of both teams treating it like a tune-up game against a weak opponent. The Jets laid a hurting on the Pats in their first matchup of the season, and with old friend Davante Adams back with Rodgers, there is even more for them to worry about. Lucky for the Patriots, the Titans and Bears bring much more advantageous matchups, especially Tennessee, which still boasts the #1 ranking of fantasy points allowed to opposing DST. The Patriots’ defense has always been a staple of their team, and they will have many opportunities to perform as such for fantasy managers over the next month.
Buffalo Bills: Tennessee Titans, Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts
While the Bills are in this position now, as mentioned with the Cardinals above, if Tua returns to the Miami lineup before the matchups against the Bills, the strength of the upcoming schedule changes dramatically. Titans QB Will Levis leads all players with 10 turnovers – in only five games played – so you’re pretty much guaranteed solid fantasy production from Buffalo this week. Seattle has weapons everywhere but has still allowed the 8th most points to opposing DST. Have the Colts moved on from Anthony Richardson? By Week 10, the Colts could be a different team, but we know they play fast and don’t hold the ball much. If the Bills can create a turnover or two, the Colts could struggle to keep up and give fantasy managers another good game from the Buffalo defense.
Washington Commanders: Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, NY Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers
It is not a secret amongst folks who watch the NFL that the Commanders have had an abysmal defense over the past two seasons, especially in the secondary. With the offenses they’re going to be facing over the coming month, they don’t need a good defense to win games and possibly even perform for fantasy managers desperate for a streaming DST. Three of the teams are in the bottom 10 in passing yards per game, and three are in the bottom six in scoring per game. None of these teams have passing attacks that frighten opposing coaching staffs, and Washington will look to control the clock to win these games, helping offer fantasy managers a useful weekly fill-in at DST.
Los Angeles Rams: Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins
This has not been the season Rams fans were hoping for. An unprecedented string of injuries across the offensive line and skill positions has made it impossible for HC Sean McVay to produce competent performances from his team. The Rams have returned from their bye week straight into a gorgeous matchup against the Raiders. The now Davante Adams-less Raiders, I should say. The Raiders are not a good offense, currently 5th-lowest in scoring per game. The Rams should be able to handle this matchup with relative ease. The following three weeks bring a monstrous list of pass catchers to town: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle. A monumental challenge for the Rams’ defense, but the stats say this is among the easiest schedules facing a DST over the next four weeks.
Best of the Rest*
Massive Gap Between LAR and PHI
Philidelphia Eagles: NY Giants, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, Dallas Cowboys
Looking at the next four weeks of matchups facing the Eagles’ DST can leave one feeling confident. The Giants only average 16 points per game, currently 28th in the NFL. The Eagles will look to capitalize on a turnover-prone QB in Daniel Jones and should have ample opportunity to create fantasy points. Cincinnati the following week is a different beast, currently packing one of the most explosive passing attacks behind QB Joe Burrow whenever they jet off. Jacksonville and Dallas are both interesting – they have the talent but have severely underperformed to begin the 2024 season. Will either team be in a position to be more competitive by the time they face the Eagles, or will Philidelphia dominate and present a quality performance for fantasy managers over the next month?
Cincinnati Bengals: Cleveland Browns, Philidelphia Eagles, Las Vegas Raiders, Baltimore Ravens
Snip, Snap, Snip, Snap. The Bengals’ following four weeks will have fantasy managers looking like the crowd at Wimbledon. This week against the Browns without star WR Amari Cooper, who was traded to the Bills, will provide the Bengals struggling defense a much-needed break, as Cleveland is currently ranked near the bottom in every major statistical category for NFL offenses. Then the Bengals head straight into a matchup with the now-healthy Eagles, where AJ Brown and Jalen Hurts will look to build off their impressive start to the season. Back to a pinnacle fight against the Raiders, who no longer have their star WR as well. The Raiders will provide top-10 upside to the struggling Cinci managers as well as Cleveland. Then it’s back to the waiver wire, facing a matchup against the ever-impressive Ravens and their two-headed rushing attack of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. The weeks they are usable are obvious, but the back-and-forth nature of their usability will cause headaches over the next month.
Baltimore Ravens: Tampa Bay Bucs, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals
Ah yes, the classic good ol’ matchup sandwich. Ravens DST managers are in for a rollercoaster over the next month of the season. Beginning with the Bucs and their potent passing attack led by veterans Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The Ravens have struggled against the pass in 2024, currently 31st in passing yards allowed per game. If Baker and those boys get hot, the Ravens DST may be better served on your bench. However, the Browns and Broncos matchups will see Baltimore ranked in the top 10 of every weekly DST ranking you can find. Cleveland just traded their best offensive weapon in Amari Cooper and appears to be writing off this season while trying to avoid questions about their $200M QB. The Ravens have an above-average pass rush win rate despite blitzing on fewer than 10% of snaps; this will help against the Broncos rookie Bo Nix, allowing Baltimore to create turnovers and score fantasy points. Cincinnati, much like Tampa, has a top-notch passing attack that will look to expose Baltimore’s subpar pass defense.
Carolina Panthers: Washington Commanders, Denver Broncos, NO Saints, NY Giants
There is a non-zero chance the Panthers should be higher on this list due to their upcoming matchups. Washington has consistently been among the toughest opponents for fantasy DSTs, so we won’t be considering Carolina this week. Denver, New Orleans, and New York all present great opportunities for BYE-week fill-ins over the next month. Denver’s offense has struggled most of the season, ranking in the bottom 6 in both PFF offensive grade and yards-per-play. New Orleans’ stats are artificially inflated by their massive scoring output over the first two weeks of the season, but they have looked like a completely different team since. It is also unclear if the Saints will have QB Derek Carr back for that game, an impactful addition or loss. Ending the month of matchups against turnover-prone QB Daniel Jones is usually a good time for fantasy managers.
Week 7 Only Streamer
Jacksonville Jaguars: NE Patriots, Green Bay Packers, Philidelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings
The Jaguars game against the Patriots in London is one of the most advantageous matchups of the week on paper. The Patriots boast a terrible offense, currently ranked 31st in PFF offensive grade and yards-per-play. Last week, rookie QB Drake Maye put up the most successful games from a Patriots quarterback since Tom Brady took his talents to Tampa, but the Pats still committed four turnovers and saw Maye get sacked four times. Their offensive line is a massive problem, and their playmakers struggle to create separation, both traits Jacksonville will look to exploit on Sunday morning.
Photos by David Jensen/Icon Sportswire, Dave Adomson/Unsplash, and Ben Hershey/Unsplash | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@DJFreddie10 on Twitter and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)