If you’re not first, you’re last. As we approach the season’s midpoint, the playoff picture of your league begins to form. Those lucky enough to be in that picture are looking for any advantage over their league-mates, however small. One of the most popular ways to gain this advantage over your opponents is to look ahead to the fantasy playoffs and identify the teams/players with the most favorable matchups. Luckily for you, we already did the work!
To identify matchup strength, I used many different stats depending on position. The greatest indicator of future fantasy performance for an offensive player is looking at what the team they are playing has allowed to their position. Thus this was used as the highest weighted factor when calculating the strength of schedule for all positions. PFF‘s team grades were also used for rush defense, coverage, or overall defensive score, dependent on position. I assigned numerical values 1-32 that corresponded to the team’s current standing vs. the rest of the NFL, with one being the worst and 32 being the best. (Example: Carolina allows the most fantasy points to opposing RB: value 1, Kansas City allows the least: value 32) Once all stat lists had their numerical values, I took each team’s average of the values to assign an overall positional matchup score to each team. Those positional matchup scores were used to calculate an overall matchup score across the playoff weeks, which was the foundation for the rankings below. All matchup scores were computed using fantasy playoff weeks 15-17. Enough with the boring stuff, let’s dive in!
Quarterback
Panthers, Titans, Raiders, & Giants: BLECH
This isn’t how I intended to begin this article. While my calculations indicate that these four teams have the most quarterback-friendly playoff schedules, I doubt that fantasy managers will be eager to stash players like Bryce Young or Mason Rudolph for the playoff weeks. Nevertheless, I need to present the facts so that readers can make informed decisions. If you find yourself in a pinch toward the end of the season, you might consider using quarterbacks from these teams as weekly fill-ins.
Arizona Cardinals: New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, Los Angeles Rams
One of the biggest advantages a quarterback can offer fantasy managers is a high success rate rushing the ball. Since entering the league in 2019, Kyler Murray has averaged a hair under 40 yards per game on the ground to go along with 28 touchdowns in 73 games. This immense rushing production provides fantasy managers with a safe floor and a massive ceiling. When forecasting the fantasy playoffs, it’s easy to see why Murray and the Cardinals lead this list of positive matchups. Starting the playoffs against the defunct New England Patriots is a great matchup for Murray, with the Pats historically struggling against mobile quarterbacks and the team currently offloading talent to try and stockpile picks as part of their rebuild. The only team with a worse point differential than the Patriots this year is the Cardinals’ second playoff matchup, the Panthers. The Panthers have been a wonderful matchup for quarterbacks in 2024, with the second-worst sack rate in the NFL and the 32nd-ranked PFF defense. Carolina is allowing the fifth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and Murray will look to take full advantage. While the Cardinals are ending the fantasy season against the division rival Rams, Murray will look to repeat his Week 2 performance against LA, where he put up 28.5 fantasy points and finished as QB1 on the week. This abundance of favorable matchups will benefit Murray’s managers who are fortunate enough to reach the playoffs.
Dallas Cowboys: Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Philidelphia Eagles
The Cowboys 2024 season has been a major disappointment through eight weeks. After giving quarterback Dak Prescott a $240M extension, the team has started 3-4 with Prescott on track to have career lows in almost every major passing category. These lows have translated to a QB19 ranking and a measly 16 fantasy points per game, both a far cry from Prescott’s QB3 20.7ppg performance in 2023. Fortunately for fantasy managers and the Cowboys, Prescott faces three of the weakest defenses against quarterbacks over the three playoff weeks. The Panthers and Buccaneers have weaknesses against the pass, allowing opposing quarterbacks to average over 20 fantasy points per game. The Bucs are currently the #1 matchup for fantasy quarterbacks, with opponents scoring over 40 fantasy points in two games and clearing 25 in another two. The matchup against the Eagles presents a significant challenge for fantasy managers. However, Prescott has demonstrated in the past that he is well-acquainted with the Eagles’ defense. In two games against Philadelphia in 2023, he surpassed over 600 passing yards and did not commit any turnovers. 2024 has been a disappointing year for Prescott’s performance, but the fantasy playoffs will offer a fresh start if he can meet expectations against weaker opponents.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Los Angeles Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Carolina Panthers
Baker Mayfield is fantasy football’s #2 scoring quarterback through eight weeks, with only one weekly performance under 19.8 fantasy points. This elite consistency from Mayfield ensures he remains a top-12 weekly option, even after losing his top two pass catchers, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. If you’re a Mayfield manager and you make it to the playoffs, overcoming the challenging Week 15 matchup against the Chargers will position you to have one of the highest-scoring quarterbacks over the final two weeks of the season, putting you on the path to success. Dallas’ defense has a chance to improve going forward with the return of their elite pass-rush duo, Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence. The readdition of these key pieces could make things more difficult for Mayfield, but the Dallas pass defense has been anything but sound, allowing opposing quarterbacks to score the sixth most points per game of any team. If you’re paying attention, you’ll notice all three Panthers opponents made the list, primarily due to their terrible performance against opposing quarterbacks. Anticipate Mayfield’s rise into the top five options for Championship week, his performance is sure to impress!
Running Back
Arizona Cardinals: New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, Los Angeles Rams
The Cardinals’ running game has been steadily progressing, with their veteran running back James Conner among the league leaders in opportunity share. Conner is doing what he seemingly does season after season, putting up back-end RB1 performances and vastly outperforming his ADP of RB20. The best part of having Conner (or maybe his handcuff Trey Benson?) on your team comes in the fantasy playoffs, with the team slated to face two of the worst run defenses in the NFL over the first two weeks. Beginning the playoffs against a Patriots’ defense currently surrendering over 150 scrimmage yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs is sure to get Conner off to a hot start. The Patriots have not yet had a game where they didn’t allow an opposing running back to score a rushing touchdown against them thus far in 2024. Following the #4 matchup for fantasy running backs with the #1 matchup in Carolina is sure to give fantasy managers a strong reason to believe in the Cardinals’ running backs. The Panthers’ defense is currently allowing 1.87 total touchdowns per game to opponent running backs, almost guaranteeing an outstanding weekly performance. While the Rams aren’t on the level of the Pats or Panthers, their defense is still allowing 12th most points to opposing running backs and ranks as a plus matchup, especially when you note that Conner’s best game of the season came against LA in Week 2. Conner will remain a weekly RB1 option through the end of the season, barring injury. However, managers should consider rostering his handcuff, Benson, who remains one of the best backup running back options in the NFL after being drafted in the third round of the 2024 NFL draft.
Carolina Panthers: Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While virtually nothing has gone right for the Panthers’ 2024 season, a lone bright spot has been the play of fourth-year running Chuba Hubbard, who is currently on pace for career highs in yards, touchdowns, and pretty much every statistical category he qualifies for. Hubbard has vastly outperformed his preseason expectations. After being drafted as RB42 according to FantasyPros consensus ADP, Hubbard is currently the RB14 in half PPR scoring. Rookie running back Johnathan Brooks’ return to practice this week should be monitored as his return could cut into Chuba’s second-ranked rush share as the playoffs approach. When looking at the playoff schedule for Panthers’ running backs, it is hard to find a downside. All three of their matchups rank in the bottom 11 in fantasy points allowed to running backs, with the Cowboys and Cardinals ranking in the bottom five. Chuba Hubbard is on pace for a “league-winning” type of season, and the fantasy playoff schedule he faces could be just what’s needed to put you over the edge and into the record books.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Los Angeles Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Carolina Panthers
In what appears to be a true committee backfield, the Bucs have no running backs in the top 25 in half-PPR scoring, while all three of their running backs are ranked between 27th and 46th at the position, with Bucky Irving, Sean Tucker, and Rashaad White each delivering usable performances throughout the year. Hopefully, before the playoffs, we see a clearer breakdown of how these three will be used together to more accurately project who can take advantage of the playoff schedule ahead. In Week 15, a difficult matchup with the Chargers could see fantasy managers pivoting off the Tampa Bay running backs for more favorable matchups. In Weeks 16 and 17, however, finding better matchups would not be possible, with the Bucs facing the two worst teams in the NFL against opposing running backs. The Cowboys and Panthers have been atrocious against the run, giving up the two most rushing yards per game and ranking bottom three in PFF run defense grade. Opposing running backs have averaged over 145 yards and more than 1.4 total touchdowns against both teams, stats that can and will excite fantasy managers. As the two usable options, at least through eight weeks, White and Irving would be smash starts for the final two weeks of the fantasy season and could help your teams to victory.
New York Jets: Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills
After being drafted in the first round of fantasy drafts, Breece Hall has had a bit of an up-and-down year. While he still ranks as the RB8 in half-PPR scoring, he averages almost a full point less per game than his 2023 season and has noticeably lost work to rookie running back Braelon Allen. While Allen is receiving work, Hall remains the only running back in the NFL in the top five in both rush share and target share at the running back position. Elite volume and talent are the benchmarks of a strong fantasy running back, and the playoff schedule ahead is a cherry on top for those managers who have Hall. All three matchups offer a reason for confidence, with each team falling to the bottom 12 in points allowed to fantasy running backs. Beginning with the Jaguars, a team allowing the sixth most points to opposing running backs mostly due to a staggering six-reception, 50-yard receiving average allowed per game to the position. Allowing running backs to earn that much production through the air bodes well for Hall, who remains one of the most dangerous receivers playing running back. A team allowing even more work through the air to opposing running backs is the Jets championship week opponent, the Bills. The Bills currently rank third in points allowed to the running back position despite falling in the top 12 in rush yards allowed. These strong matchups for Hall are exactly what we want when projecting out to the fantasy playoffs. Remember to roster Allen if he is on waivers in your league, as he remains amongst, if not at the top of, a list of best running back handcuffs in the league.
Honorable Mention: Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers
Wide Receiver
Las Vegas Raiders: Atlanta Falcons, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints
The wide receiver playoff schedules were much closer than the other positions, but that didn’t stop certain teams from standing out above the pack. The first of those teams was the Raiders, whose playoff schedule includes three teams ranked in the bottom 12 of points allowed to the wide receiver position. They’re the only team to have all three playoff matchups against opponents ranked that low against wide receivers. Since the recent departure of star veteran Davante Adams, targets have opened up for Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker. They will be the ones to reap the rewards of a cakewalk playoff schedule and can be acquired for cheap or even free with Tucker, who is only rostered in 8% of Yahoo leagues, making them attractive buy candidates if you’re trying to load up for the playoffs. Opening the playoffs against the Falcons and their league-low sack rate isn’t going to scare anyone, at least not on the offensive side of the ball. While Atlanta allows lower yardage totals from wide receivers, they fall to the 12th most points allowed to the position, mostly due to allowing well over one touchdown a game. The Jaguars must have seen what the Falcons are doing on defense and wanted to emulate them as they, too, are allowing well over a touchdown per game to opposing wide receivers. The Saints have the talent on the defensive side to cause problems, but a defunct offense ranked bottom-five in time of possession over the past three weeks certainly offers plentiful opportunities to the Raiders wide receivers.
Carolina Panthers: Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Much like the Raiders above, a veteran standout departure combined with an easy playoff schedule makes Panthers wide receivers attractive buy/trade candidates leading up to the fantasy playoffs. More specifically, rookie Xavier Legette and veteran Adam Thielen. While the Panthers quarterback position doesn’t inspire confidence in the minds of fantasy managers, the schedule to end the season offers as much hope as we can hope for out of these Panthers players. The playoff schedule is very positive, with the biggest challenge facing Panthers wide receivers coming in Week 15 against the 31st-ranked PFF defense in Dallas. Arizona’s defense has been torched multiple times throughout the year by all levels of quarterbacks. Hopefully, the Panthers can take advantage of this and deliver strong fantasy performances. Tampa is a classic pass-funnel style defense, with opponents choosing to avoid their strong interior defensive line. All three matchups offer upside, and the Panthers wide receivers are available for prices that make them difficult to ignore if trying to plan for the fantasy playoffs.
Green Bay Packers: Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings
Well, here we go. Finally, a team with some wide receivers fantasy managers actually want to start… although now I think we may have too many wide receivers available. Six players have received over 20 targets through eight weeks, with four players having a game with two or more receiving touchdowns. Making start/sit decisions when four Packers wide receivers are sharing the routes ran can be difficult, to say the least. Romeo Doubs has dominated the snap share thus far when healthy, and Jayden Reed has equally dominated the slot wide receiver role. Christian Watson and Dontavion Wicks have shared the second outside wide receiver role at almost a perfect 50/50 split when both healthy for games. Doubs and Reed are weekly starters if healthy in most formats, and Watson and Wicks can offer huge boom or bust potential for managers searching for variance. The fantasy playoffs only raise the bar for what we should expect from these receivers. The Seahawks have fallen from the #1 ranked PFF defense through four weeks to league average. The Saints have been one of the worst teams overall for the 2024 season, and their lackluster pass defense remains one of the best weekly matchups you can find for wide receivers. Playing championship week against the division rival Vikings and their #32 ranked performance against wide receivers is exactly what we want with the money on the line. No matter what Packers wide receiver you roster, their contingent upside due to injury and positive playoff schedule makes them a valuable asset to hold through the end of the season.
Chicago Bears: Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks
No team’s offense had a greater influx of talent in the 2024 offseason than the Chicago Bears. From adding veterans D’andre Swift and Keenan Allen to drafting quarterback Caleb Williams and wide receiver Rome Odunze within the first 10 picks of the NFL draft, no team was expected to make a larger leap forward. The Bears passing attack and overall offense have greatly improved as the season has progressed, and an excellent playoff schedule for the wide receivers offers even greater fantasy production at the time it’s needed most. The Vikings and Lions have been among teams considered for Super Bowl contention for most of the season, but did you know their defenses allow the most and third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers? Matchups with that much upside are exactly what we’re looking for when attempting to find advantages for the late season, and the two teams that allow the most yards to wide receivers are a great indicator of future success, in addition to the fantasy points surrendered. Championship week isn’t the best matchup versus the Seahawks, but you have to make the dance to have a chance, and the Bears WRs can help you get there.
Honorable Mention: New York Giants, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys
Tight End
Arizona Cardinals: New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, Los Angeles Rams
I’m not sure if fantasy managers have realized how good Trey McBride has been to this point of the season, where he is the #5 tight end in total points and one of only three to average 10+ half-PPR points per game. The crazy part is he is doing all of this with zero touchdowns on the year. The playoff schedule ahead can only make McBride managers more confident as the Cardinals face the easiest schedule for tight ends. The Patriots have been surprisingly stingy with opposing tight ends this year, but anytime you have a team whose offense is as bad as New England’s, there is a chance for some big games by the opposition. The Panthers and the Rams are the opposite, with both ranking in the bottom three for fantasy points and yards allowed to the tight end position. Both teams allow more than 0.5 touchdowns a game to tight ends, while the Panthers allow almost a full touchdown per game! When you have a player as talented as McBride who receives the volume he does, it is a good thing, but when they have a playoff schedule that includes matchups so beneficial in the playoffs, it can lead to fantasy championships.
Tennessee Titans: Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars
If you’re considering the Tennessee tight ends, whether Chig Okonkwuo or Josh Whyle, you must be in a deep league or a tough spot. Neither player has shown usability, as both rank outside the top 34 in points scored at the tight end position. The fantasy playoffs offer as much hope as we can expect from this group, with all three weekly matchups coming against teams ranked in the bottom eight in fantasy points allowed to the tight end position. If you need a desperation play at tight end during the playoffs, you might consider one of the Tennessee players to help your team, especially if one can emerge as a target earner before that time.
New York Jets: Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills
With the current state of the tight end position, I doubt anyone would blame you for considering a player like the Jets’ Tyler Conklin for your fantasy squad. Through eight weeks, Conklin has 0.2 fewer fantasy points than Sam Laporta and is 15 points ahead of Dalton Schultz. Both players were drafted miles ahead of Conklin in fantasy drafts this offseason, yet that hasn’t translated to increased production. With the position struggling so drastically, the fantastic playoff schedule facing Conklin and the Jets could be enough to sway some managers into rostering or even staring him. The first two playoff matchups come against teams currently allowing more than 11.5 half-PPR points to the tight end position, a bottom-six mark in the NFL. The Jags and Rams struggle to defend the short to intermediate areas of the field where tight ends usually do their best work, and Conklin will look to take full advantage in their matchups. Ending the season against the Bills is challenging, especially considering they rank in the top third of the league for tight end scoring allowed. Conklin and the Jets’ schedule may help you make your championship, but most managers will look elsewhere to maximize the position for the final week of the fantasy season.
Carolina Panthers: Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If you thought the Tennesee tight ends were the lowest-producing tight end group to make the list, then think again! The Panthers tight ends, led by Tommy Tremble and fourth-round rookie Ja’Tavion Sanders, have combined for less than 250 yards and zero touchdowns so far on the year, and with Bryce Young back under center, that doesn’t project to be improving much anytime soon. Maybe a beneficial schedule can help them in the fantasy playoffs, as Sanders was able to put up respectable fantasy performances in a couple of weeks this year. If the Panthers go back to Andy Dalton or just somehow figure out how not to be the worst team of the last 10 years, then their tight end may have a chance of providing good value in the fantasy playoffs.
Honorable Mention: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Houston Texans
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)