Well, that was certainly a week of NFL Football.
I can’t say that many of the outcomes for Week 2 were predictable; a multitude of so-called “contenders” dropped the ball (some in blowout fashion), while teams like the LA Chargers and Minnesota Vikings are 2-0.
On top of that, a brutal slew of injuries hit fantasy rosters like a wave, taking out the likes of big names such as Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Tua Tagovailoa, and Isiah Pacheco for extended periods of time, while players such as Joe Mixon, Justin Herbert, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Evan Engram enter Week 3 with varying degrees of questionability.
It’s brutal – Fantasy Football always is. But for every door that closed this past weekend, another one opened for new and exciting players to show what they can do.
With that, here are my Week 3 picks for Booms and Busts.
Booms: Week 3
Jauan Jennings, WR – San Francisco 49ers
Week 3 Matchup: at Los Angeles Rams (vs. WR – 22nd)
Last Week: at Minnesota Vikings (vs. WR – 18th):
4 Targets, 2 Receptions, 37 Yards (18.5 Average)
A week removed from his 5-64 stat line against the New York Jets on Monday Night, Jennings fell back to Earth a bit with a middling outing in Week 2. The entire 49ers offense was poor, however, so it’s hard to fault just him on the afternoon. The game against the Vikings was close throughout, but the Niners just couldn’t get much going positively against a surprisingly stout Minnesota defense.
It also probably didn’t help that news had broken a few days prior that All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey would be put on IR due to an injury deemed more serious than it was initially believed to be. How badly that affected the gameplan on the road remains to be seen, but San Francisco simply didn’t look like what we’ve come to expect from Kyle Shanahan‘s squad. Then, to add injury to insult, Deebo Samuel went down in the waning minutes of the game and is likely going to miss multiple weeks with a strained calf. The injuries are mounting so early in the year, and the expectations to perform for the NFC Champions are high regardless.
For those reasons, enter Jauan Jennings.
The seasoned veteran has long been a favorite of Shanahan as a physical slot receiver but has never been the focal point with the number of stars that have typically been available to the Niners’ offense. That won’t be the case for the immediate future, and while Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle remain healthy, the former is still struggling to adjust after his hold-out training camp experience, while the latter is likely to be the defensive game plan for Week 3’s opponent LA Rams.
Jennings looked tough and found himself open several times in Week 1 against the Jets, and Brock Purdy appears to trust him when he does target the slot man. The offensive game plan sans two superstar options is sure to be different for the Niners, but it’s likely that Jennings is heavily involved on the road, especially with the Rams’ 22nd-ranked defense against receivers (and a litany of injuries on their team as well).
DJ Moore, WR – Chicago Bears
Week 3 Matchup: at Indianapolis Colts (vs. WR – 26th)
Last Week: at Houston Texans (vs. WR – 19th):
10 Targets, 6 Receptions, 53 Yards (8.8 Average)
After two weeks, it’s been pretty clear to all of those watching the Chicago Bears that there are some grand problems for the offense. The line has struggled to protect rookie phenom Caleb Williams, the running game is stagnant at best, and the trio of superstar receivers hasn’t yet established themselves with their young QB. That ends here in Week 3.
The situation was evident on a national scale against the Houston Texans on Sunday Night, and for that reason, I fully expect HC Matt Eberflus to adjust and put his offense in a position to win. What better way to do so than against a struggling Colts team helmed by an inexperienced semi-rookie QB? With the media hype surrounding Chicago these days, the Bears have to act and act fast to ensure Williams comes along in his progression as a player.
That could start with the talent available on the roster at receiver. Of the three studs that Chicago brought in via trade, draft, or free agency, DJ Moore has appeared to have the greatest trust and connection with Williams. He’s seen a total of 18 targets over two weeks, and while it hasn’t quite materialized in terms of yardage and scores, you have to walk before you run. Moore is the most talented and (while Keenan Allen remains out) most experienced option for Williams, and I think he’ll continue looking his way early and often, hopefully leading to bigger results.
The Colts are middle of the pack in terms of covering opposing wideouts, and their pass rush likely takes a hit with the news that DeForest Buckner is IR-bound. With Williams clean in the pocket and Moore open on his routes, I fully expect fireworks and a positive spin in the media for Chicago come Monday.
Jaylen Warren, RB – Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 3 Matchup: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (vs. RB – 11th)
Last Week: at Denver Broncos (vs. RB – 21st):
9 Carries, 42 Yards (4.7 Average) | 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 19 Yards (9.5 Average)
Jaylen Warren started the season off shaky, being brought back from injury slowly in Week 1 before seeing a much larger workload last week in the win at Denver. Now that he appears to be healthy, it’s clear the Steelers intend to use him more and more going forward, and the production is sure to go up with it, potentially beginning in the home opener against the Chargers this week.
To be clear, Najee Harris is still the frontrunner out of this backfield, and with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith running things, Cordarelle Patterson will still (frustratingly) get his share of the pie. Neither has been particularly lights-out, however, and Warren hasn’t had a chance so early in the year to show what he can do when 100%. There were flashes of untapped potential in what the young RB brought to the table late last year, and now that his training camp injury is behind him, there’s room to make the most of the opportunities given in this run-first offensive scheme.
The Chargers under Jim Harbaugh look many times better than the Staley-led squads of the past, and this is reflected by their hot start to the year. That being said, they haven’t beaten anyone expected to contend, and Pittsburgh is a different animal. The woes of QB Justin Fields in the passing game are evident, but the Steelers invested heavily in their offensive line over the offseason & draft and fully intend to run the rock regardless of opponent. With the Chargers fielding a middle-of-the-pack run defense, it’s sure to be a favorable afternoon for Warren and company to feast.
Busts: Week 3
Carson Steele, RB – Kansas City Chiefs
Week 3 Matchup: at Atlanta Falcons (vs. RB – 5th)
Last Week: vs. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. RB – 17th):
7 Carries, 24 Yards (3.4 Average)
Carson Steele was probably the hottest waiver wire pickup of the week.
After the unfortunate news that Isiah Pacheco would miss 6-8 weeks with a broken fibula, there was a scramble among fantasy owners and Chiefs fans to identify who the next man up would be in the Kansas City backfield. With Clyde-Edwards Helaire on the PUP and only Broncos cast-away Samaje Perine as competition, preseason standout Steele was deemed to be the best possible fit to help Patrick Mahomes move the offense on his quest for three in a row.
The situation is positive for Steele to produce on paper, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that outcome will come to fruition. Steele is a rookie, running off of limited touches so far this season and doing little with them in meaningful action. He’s also not an avid pass-catcher, something Mahomes and Andy Reid often call upon in this scheme. He’s likely to get a share of early downs and short yardage situations with his size (6’0″, 228 pounds), but his potential will be limited given how much trust (or lack thereof) he has to this point. I fully expect Perine to get the nod in the immediate future, and with the last-minute pickup of free agent Kareem Hunt, the Chiefs may be preparing for a committee approach that could strap Steele down even further.
Add in a physical Atlanta Falcons defense that ranks 5th against RBs, and the rookie’s starting debut may just be a forgettable affair down in Georgia.
Mike Evans, WR – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 3 Matchup: vs. Denver Broncos (vs. WR – 1st)
Last Week: at Detroit Lions (vs. WR – 31st):
6 Targets, 3 Receptions, 42 Yards (14.0 Average)
As explosive as Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay offense have been, Evans himself fell back down with a quiet performance – especially when compared to fellow wideout Chris Godwin. It wasn’t the worst of outings, certainly, but it was a big difference when compared to the 5-61-2 showing Evans posted in Week 1.
It has been a point of gossip year in and year out whether this is finally the season Mike Evans ages out and drops off. With the amount of success Tampa Bay has found themselves in the post-Tom Brady years, he has been pushing the clock forward and producing at a very high level. I don’t fully expect 2024 to be the year he fades down the stretch, but against Detroit, the numbers just didn’t materialize, and I predict they’ll drop even further against a top-ranked Broncos pass defense.
Evans is sure to draw the eye of Pat Surtain in coverage, and while Denver doesn’t exactly feel like an elite shutdown defense, they’ve been extremely stingy to the wide receiver position (possibly what happens naturally when facing a vertically challenged Steelers team the week before). My expectation is Godwin continues to Boom while Evans continues to Bust, at least for one more week.
J.K. Dobbins, RB – Los Angeles Chargers
Week 3 Matchup: at Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. RB – 7th)
Last Week: at Carolina Panthers (vs. RB – 29th):
17 Carries, 131 Yards (7.7 Average), 1 TD | 1 Target, 1 Reception
What has Boomed must now Bust – ’tis the way of the NFL.
A week removed from his explosive 131-yard performance, Dobbins is riding high while producing at a monstrous pace to start 2024 off strong. He has been a fantasy stud in both outings in his first season under Jim Harbaugh as a Charger and looks to continue his streak of high production in a road matchup with Pittsburgh this weekend.
As high as I (and most others) have been on Dobbins, there’s likely to be some regression entering the matchup against a stout defense ranked 7th overall against opposing runners. Pittsburgh knows what LA wants to do, and with QB Justin Herbert hobbled by an ankle injury and the Chargers WR corps being unproven, the Steelers are sure to key in on the run game and Dobbins specifically.
It also doesn’t help that, despite the numbers, Harbaugh is still electing to utilize a committee approach with Gus Edwards. Both backs split touches and snaps almost evenly, and even with Edwards doing far less with his shares, he’s still vulturing opportunities that could be given to Dobbins to excel with instead.
I expect a low-scoring affair out in the Steel City on Sunday, and that’ll put a damper on what Dobbins has typically been able to do for fantasy owners.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)