Booms & Busts: Week 14

Three players who will boom and bust in the final week of fantasy football's regular season!

Fantasy football is one of the harshest punishments we impose on ourselves. The fun and excitement of your best pickups or, at the apex, a fantasy championship will always triumph over that heart-crushing feeling we have when it’s only a few weeks from the end of the regular season. Teeth gritting, rummaging through the waiver wire for any form of life, in a week closer to the end than the beginning of the season, and still not feeling like anything is known. I felt this deep down in my gut when just earlier today, I sighed and picked up a rising but unexciting season of Brandin Cooks, only to go back into the player pool page earlier today to see that someone had outright cut Jakobi Meyers (in this league, he’s currently the 14th ranked wide receiver). Forgetting that sometimes some player’s weaknesses or another dominance, we hope to find some shimmering speck of gold to lead us into a tight win and move along.

That’s why looking through the players who are going to “boom” and the ones who are going to “bust” is so very important. Just this past week, I got to take my victory lap as Bucky Irving had the best game of his pro career, dominating touches and finishing with one of the best running back lines of the week. Hitting on a take is one of the best feelings in fantasy that can be experienced by all of us, and I hope to help you find another diamond in the rough to get you to the playoffs this week. Let’s see who’s potentially on the come-up for a big Week 14!

 

Booms: Week 14

 

Cade Otton, TE- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 14 Matchup: Oakland Raiders  (30th Overall against Tight Ends)

 

Cade Otton had an extremely productive run for 7 weeks, where he was averaging 60 yards per game, averaging a little over 7 targets per game as well. Peppered in that period were his only 4 touchdowns of the season. Unfortunately, between the extended production of Bucky Irving and the return of Mike Evans, Otton has taken a back seat, where over the past three weeks, he’s averaging 6 targets a game but has only had a combined 65 yards over the three weeks. It’s very clear that when Evans is back in the equation, Otton becomes the third or fourth option. As a tight end for most teams, that’s anticipated, but Otton was reliant on being a workhorse type tight end, dominating on consistent targets.

Understandably, Otton may not be at the top of our lists after the past three weeks, but it’s a bye-dominated week, and we need to find diamonds in the rough. Otton has a great matchup against a Raiders squad that has allowed the second-most targets and receptions this season. This matchup likely won’t be that competitive, as the Bucs should have their way with the Raiders, but I would still expect that between 7 and 10 targets are possible, and with that much potential in a key matchup, Otton could get himself back into the top 5 tight ends of the week production.

 

Drake London, WR- Atlanta Falcons

Week 14 Matchup: Minnesota Vikings (31st Overall against Wide Receivers)

 

Drake London was an enigmatic receiver who had a huge pedigree behind him after being drafted 8th overall in 2022. Expected to be the player to build their offense around, London instead spent two years mired by the quarterbacking of Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and then finally Taylor Heinicke. Finally, it seems as if maybe this was more of the reason for London’s inconsistency and inability to break out more than anything else. In the past 3 weeks, London has averaged 13 targets per week and 81.3 yards per game. While Kirk Cousins retains the job for now, it remains to be seen if the rising cache of Michael Penix will cause him to take the field next week, next month, or the next quarter that Atlanta plays, depending on how poorly Cousins performs.

The good news is that while Cousins struggles, the only thing that hasn’t been able to be capitalized on by London is an outpouring of touchdowns. London saw two of his top three target shares over the past three games, and there isn’t much more needed to prove that London is the motor for this offense. Making it an even better opportunity for us, London is facing a team that is allowing 182 receiving yards a game (only second most to Detroit.) London will have an opportunity to continue on his past few games of dominance against a struggling secondary that will likely sieve targets to him.

 

Tony Pollard, RB- Tennessee Titans

Week 14 Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars (31st Overall against Running Backs)

 

Tony Pollard was marked washed when he left Dallas. Which is fair, with the disarray going on in Dallas, everyone wants a scapegoat. While Pollard found himself on a new squad that isn’t inherently good at collecting wins, it seems as if he may not have been the problem there in Dallas. While the Cowboys are trying to figure out how to fix themselves, in another season where they find their starting quarterback injured, Pollard is quietly inching towards his third straight 1,000-yard rushing season. The snapshot of inefficiency,  Pollard backed up a 119-yard rushing game against Houston (7th against the rush) with a 35-yard rushing game against the Commanders (18th against the run.)

This is not a sure-shot opportunity, but Pollard has a track record and is facing a team that just lost their starting quarterback, and is rounding the toilet bowl in hopes of a number-one pick, so I don’t foresee them putting up much of a battle in this game. Pollard can disappear in games where they’re facing superior competition, but this is going to be a much smaller foe in Jacksonville, and I could see Pollard getting upwards of 15 to 17 carries, as they likely will be up late in the game, and will milk the clock down. The Jags are offering up over 103 yards per game this season to running backs, so we can likely chalk this up to a solid Pollard line.

 

Busts: Week 14

 

Gus Edwards, RB- Los Angeles Chargers

Week 14 Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs (1st Overall against Running Backs)

 

Gus Edwards spent his entire career in Baltimore, valiantly backing up everyone who was starting. J.K. Dobbins started his career in Baltimore with a high level of pedigree but was quickly dashed by injuries. When Edwards was one of the first players off the free agency map, it looked like Edwards might have a chance to start, but Dobbins joined the Chargers just a month later, I’m sure, with a mighty friendly wave to see his old buddy. Edwards was immediately the number two rusher behind Dobbins due to a lack of electric rushing ability and less upside. Dobbins was having a very successful season (he was around the 14th-best rusher of the year when he went down.) Gus Edwards will get the chance to rush more, but unfortunately, that’s not likely going to do us any favors. Many fantasy teams may need to use him this week, but the bar for expectation should remain relatively close to the ground. Edwards was the “lead rusher” last week and had his best yards per carry (5.3), but that was on six total touches. Buzzy backup Kimani Vidal didn’t do much either, and while the Chargers left the game victorious, it left us with as many questions as we came in with.

The Chargers go up against the horseshoe-holding Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead with a solid 8-4 record, likely looking to win a game on the shoulder of their jump-started quarterback. Justin Herbert has had a resurgence, and while last week was a very unexciting defensive slog, there’s a shootout feeling in the air for this one. Edwards likely will not have the yard per carry numbers he had last week, and while he could end up with a few more carries, the encroaching Chiefs defense likely won’t leave much room for him to work, and with his trodding rushing style, this is a recipe for disaster.

 

Travis Kelce, TE- Kansas City Chiefs

Week 14 Matchup: Los Angeles Chargers (3rd Overall against Tight Ends)

 

I had a premonition two weeks ago that Travis Kelce was going to beast out in a cake matchup against the Carolina Panthers. Imagine my face when we saw Noah Gray THIEVE two tight-end touchdowns against the lowly Panthers. I won’t be taking that call back, but this week, Kelce is not going to have a cakewalk against the Chargers’ secondary.  The Chargers have given up .08 Touchdowns per game to the position, and this is one scenario where the Chiefs will likely have to pull out a win in this AFC monster matchup without the help of their renowned tight end. The Chargers will likely crack down on Kelce as their first option and force Patrick Mahomes to prove he’s capable of doing this without his stud pass catcher. The Chiefs are having a tough time finding weapons that work consistently, and now they’re in flux due to the return of Isiah Pacheco and the inefficient corpse of Kareem Hunt battling it out for carries.

The Chiefs offense has decided to pepper the ball over the field and only had one receiving touchdown last week, and as it did with all their games, it went to Justin Watson after he won the spinny wheel game of “Whose the goal line receiver of the day?” We’ll see very little happening in this game on midfield receiving, where the tight end happens to thrive, and instead, it likely will be a game of spread-out targets where they try to get more work to Pacheco to get him back into the mix.

 

Garrett Wilson, WR- New York Jets

Week 14 Matchup: Miami Dolphins (1st Overall against Wide Receivers)

 

Garrett Wilson is living in a football nightmare. Wilson’s career at receiver has been highlighted by some of the biggest head-scratchers at quarterback as he attempted to get his career started. Here’s a comprehensive list of who has passed the ball to Garrett since his start with the Jets:

Zack Wilson

Joe Flacco

Mike White

Trevor Siemian

Tim Boyle

Chris Streveler

Well, it’s a good thing he got potential Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers to come through and throw him the ball, you would think. Unfortunately, Wilson is dealing with the slow crashing of Rodger’s end-of-career outputs and the added target dispersion from Davante Adams coming over from Las Vegas to play with his buddy Aaron. Wilson hasn’t had a season to talk about, and it’s making some question if his career will ever fully take off while he’s in New York. Since Adams came over from Las Vegas, Wilson had one game over 100 yards receiving, and in the rest, averaged 50 yards per game. It’s clear while the team said that Adams coming over wouldn’t keep Wilson from being their stud receiver, the lie detector would prove THAT is a lie.

It gets worse. Wilson is going to face the toughest defense against the pass in Miami, and he’ll likely face a shadow most of the game from Jalen Ramsey. On the season, the Dolphins are allowing a minuscule 124 yards per game to receive cores, and unfortunately, there’s not much to be gained from playing Wilson here. In a week where there are plenty of great receivers out, you can play Wilson, but keep your expectations to a top 30 receiver at best.

 

Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on IG & Threads, @kuwasemiller on Bluesky)

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