Buy and Sell: Week 12

Two of the four highest single-game passing yard performances this season came from unsuspecting characters in Week 11. Jacoby Brissett completed an NFL record 47 passes for 452 yards against the 49ers, and Bryce Young continued to torment the Falcons with 448 yards in an overtime win.

The Bills and Buccaneers also delivered a back-and-forth matchup filled with lead changes, where Josh Allen took over with a monster six-touchdown day. Not to be overshadowed, Sean Tucker exploded for 144 total yards and three scores on the other side. There were a handful of breakout performances mixed in, but overall, it wasn’t the best day for fantasy across the league. Several backup running backs stole touchdowns, while some of the season’s biggest stars delivered disappointing duds.

With Week 12 approaching, the fantasy playoffs are near. Let’s dive into a few players and performances that we are buying and selling as we head into the home stretch.

 

BUY

Jameson Williams (WR – DET)

WR8: 7 Targets, 4 Receptions, 88 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Williams was one of the bigger disappointments in the first half of the season. He had an ADP around the fifth to sixth round during draft season, and from Weeks 1-7, the 24-year-old ranked as WR60 in PPR points per game (8.3). Williams was seeing just over four targets per game, and it was clear that most of his routes were clearing out the defense for Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs to feast on targets underneath. Williams earned decent volume on some of these layup targets last season, which allowed him to get the ball on the run and utilize his world-class speed. However, he was deemphasized early this season with three other great players to feature.

However, since their Week 8 bye, there’s been a meaningful shift. Offensive coordinator John Morton spoke around that time about  needing to do a better job of getting Williams involved, admitting that “he’s failed him.” Since then, Williams ranks as the WR3 in total PPR points per game (60.2) behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Drake London. The 2022 first-round pick has seen a spike in targets on horizontal routes in this time, averaging 4.3 targets per game, and has produced 184 receiving yards on them, the most among all wide receivers since Week 9. Compared to the first seven games, Williams averaged 1.9 targets per game on these routes and had 198 total yards in more than double the number of games, per Fantasy Points Data Suite. Getting Williams on the move on these crossing routes is the best way to utilize his strengths as a player, and Dan Campbell taking over the play-calling duties has led to that being a featured piece of the offense. Factor in the surprising news of LaPorta being placed on injured reserve last week with a back injury, and there’s one less mouth to feed in Detroit, and Williams is likely to benefit the most from his absence. Six of Detroit’s final seven games will be played in domes, and they own the second-easiest wide receiver schedule by RotoViz’s SOS Streaming App. There’s potential for Williams to be the highest-scoring Lions wide receiver over the rest of the season.

Upcoming schedule: vs. NYG, vs. GB, vs. DAL, at LAR, vs. PIT

 

Bhayshul Tuten (RB – JAX)

RB20: 15 Carries, 74 Rushing Yards, 1 TD

We’ve been waiting all season for Tuten to see an uptick in snaps and opportunities, and it came in Week 11 against the Chargers. The rookie fourth-rounder did get banged up and left with an ankle injury, but he told reporters that he should be all good. Tuten outcarried Travis Etienne 15 to 12 before exiting early and punched in a goal-line touchdown. In the first three quarters, he played 42.9% of the snaps compared to Etienne at 51%, handled 45.2% of the running back carries to Etienne’s 38.7%, and ran 20% of the routes versus Etienne at 45%. It is very much trending towards a two-mam backfield, and there could be plenty of running back usage for both of them to be impactful for fantasy.

Head coach Liam Coen produced one of the highest value backfields in the league last season with Tampa Bay, with Bucky Irving and Rachaad White both finishing in the top 24 RBs in PPR points per game. Tuten brings a level of explosiveness that Coen hasn’t ever had in his backfields, posting a 4.32 40-yard dash time with a 1.48 10-yard split. Those are elite speed and burst numbers that compare favorably to superstar back Jahmyr Gibbs. The rookie had a 20% explosive rush rate in his first game with 10 or more carries, per FTN Fantasy. Tuten is the more talented and juiced-up runner than Etienne at this stage, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the rookie lead the backfield in touches over the final stretch of games.

Upcoming schedule: at ARI, at TEN, vs. IND, vs. NYJ, at DEN

 

Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL)

QB29: 14-for-25, 193 Passing Yards, 2 INTs | 4 Carries, 10 Yards

Jackson hasn’t quite looked like himself since returning from his hamstring injury in Week 9 against the Dolphins. While he threw four touchdowns in that game, the passing game hasn’t gotten back to the hyper-efficient level that we are accustomed to seeing, ranking 21st in EPA/Play (0.001) in that span. The star quarterback has posted back-to-back games with a below 60% completion rate for the first time since he did it in three consecutive games in the 2023 season. As Jackson gets further removed from his early-season injury, we’re banking on the Baltimore offense finding their stride.

The upcoming schedule is the most appealing element of buying Jackson right now. Baltimore plays the Jets and the Bengals twice in the next four weeks, setting Jackson up for a few explosion games where he vaults his fantasy managers into the playoffs. One concern that is worth bringing up is the lack of rushing since returning. He’s totaled just 19 carries for 60 yards in those three games. But there is still a lot to like about the rest of his season outlook, and he should certainly see better days after getting through the tough defenses on the schedule. It is easily the best rest of season schedule by RotoViz’s SOS Streaming App.

Upcoming schedule: vs. NYJ, vs. CIN, vs. PIT, at CIN, vs. NE

 

SELL

Javonte Williams (RB – DAL)

RB26: 22 Carries, 93 Rushing Yards | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 0 Receiving Yards

Williams has enjoyed a great bounce-back season in Dallas after being one of the worst starting running backs in football last season with the Broncos. He looks much healthier and fluid after suffering a brutal knee injury a few seasons ago. The workload is still among the most robust in the league, with no competition for touches, but the upcoming schedule is a gauntlet of top run defenses. The Eagles’ run defense has rounded into form lately, ranking fourth in EPA/rush since Week 8. The Chiefs have allowed the sixth fewest PPR points per game to opposing backs this season, and the Lions have allowed the second fewest.

It’s a decent opportunity to sell high on the 25-year-old and see what potential returns you can get before the fantasy playoffs approach. If you can cash Williams in for a bona fide stud WR1, I’d consider that depending on the state of your roster. The next slew of matchups could yield inefficient rushing lines and ultimately disappointing fantasy games at the most critical time of the season.

Upcoming schedule: vs. PHI, vs. KC, at DET, vs. MIN, vs. LAC

 

Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR – WSH)

WR5: 8 Targets, 7 Receptions, 74 Receiving Yards, 1 TD | 1 Carry, 3 Rushing Yards

Samuel cooled off after an electric start to the season. He inevitably got banged up and was forced to miss Week 7 due to a heel injury, and it’s feasible that it affected his play. Before his WR5 finish in Week 11, the 29-year-old recorded just 16 catches on 22 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown, along with three carries for three yards, in the past four games. His marks in Week 11 against the Dolphins were all the highest in a game since his season-best performance in Week 5 against the Los Angeles Chargers.

A great sign of Samuel’s early-season bounce back was his ability to earn volume downfield, along with his designed touches to maximize his YAC ability. In the first five weeks, the former 49er led Washington with 10 catches on 16 targets for 179 yards on throws with 10 air yards or more. Since Week 6, he had only caught one of four targets for 19 yards on such throws, limiting his production to strictly underneath throws and screens. With Terry McLaurin (quadriceps) expected to be ready to play after their Week 12 bye, Samuel’s target volume should go down. The effectiveness of the offense should see a lift, however, with a receiver who is capable of stretching the defense vertically, something Washington has sorely missed in his absence. Additionally, the rest of season schedule features multiple top defenses that could blanket the veteran wideout. The Week 11 performance could be the window to sell high.

Upcoming schedule: BYE, vs. DEN, at MIN, at NYG, vs. PHI

 

Travis Kelce (TE – KC)

TE3: 13 Target, 9 Receptions, 91 Yards, 1 TD