Buy and Sell: Week 14

Buy and Sell for Fantasy Football in Week 14!

Kyle McCarthy
Trade Talk Yesterday

Week 13 was a wild one, beginning on Thanksgiving Day with underdogs going 3-0 and continuing on Black Friday when the Bears upset the Eagles on the road. Then on Sunday, we had one of the more surprising results of the season with the Panthers taking down arguably the best team in football in the Rams as 10-point underdogs. Carolina continues to be the most compelling team in the league.

With the fantasy playoffs just one week away, most leagues’ trade deadlines have already passed. Still, we can take a look at a few players and performances I am buying and selling as we head into Week 14.

 

BUY

Adonai Mitchell (WR – NYJ)

WR6: 12 Targets, 8 Receptions, 102 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Adonai Mitchell posted the best game of his career in Week 13 against the Atlanta Falcons. It was the most targets, receptions, and yards that he’s ever had in a game, and he also found the end zone for the first time. Mitchell was acquired by the Jets from the Colts at this year’s trade deadline. The 52nd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft was buried on the depth chart behind Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs in Indianapolis and had some frustrating moments when he did get the opportunity to play, including dropping the ball before crossing the goal line in the Colts’ 27-20 loss at the Rams in Week 4.

Mitchell has all the talent and opportunity to be an impactful player for fantasy down the stretch. He has elite athletic traits (9.97 RAS) and has looked like the Jets’ No. 1 wide receiver since being acquired with Garrett Wilson (knee) out. Mitchell has run 75.9% of the team’s routes since Week 11, which only trails John Metchie III, and has been a dominant target earner with a 30% targets per route run. His 30% TPRR ranks ninth among all players during that time (minimum 50 routes), per Fantasy Points Data Suite. Mitchell is widely available (3% owned in Yahoo) and is worth a heavy FAAB investment this week. Wilson is eligible to return in Week 15, but there’s no guarantee that he will be ready.

Upcoming schedule: vs. MIA, at JAX, at NO, vs. NE, at BUF

 

R.J. Harvey (RB – DEN)

RB2: 13 Carries, 35 Rushing Yards, 2 TDs | 4 Targets, 3 Receptions, 27 Receiving Yards 

Since J.K. Dobbins (foot) went down, R.J. Harvey has seen his role increase as expected. He’s played 53.1% of the snaps, handled 54.4% of the team’s carries, and run 28.1% of the routes, averaging 14.5 expected PPR points per game, ranking 16th among running backs since Week 11. The rookie handled all three carries inside the 10 and punched in two goal-line touchdowns in Week 13 against Washington. That’s notable because in Week 11 against the Chiefs, Harvey had just one of three carries inside the 10, with Jaleel McLaughlin handling the other two and scoring a touchdown. McLaughlin was still involved with seven touches, but hasn’t been above a 20% snap share in either game.

Harvey’s rushing efficiency and advanced metrics haven’t been great, but the usage looks promising. He’s staying involved as a pass catcher with three receptions in both games with Dobbins out. That’s been a common way for head coach Sean Payton to get the explosive rookie. We saw Harvey get matched up with a linebacker and score on a wheel route in Week 9 against the Texans. The rookie second-rounder has the game-breaking speed that we look for in fantasy at the running back position, and Harvey has the runway to be a potential league winner down the stretch. Harvey scored 25 times last season at UCF and has eight already in 12 games as a rookie, and we could see him rack up the touchdowns over the final five games.

Upcoming schedule: at LV, vs. GB, vs. JAX, at KC, vs. LAC

 

Terry McLaurin (WR – WSH)

WR8: 14 Targets, 7 Receptions, 96 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Terry McLaurin has had an injury-plagued season, playing in just five games so far. But he returned in Week 13 against the Denver Broncos and looked fantastic. The 14 targets tied a career high for the 30-year-old wideout, and he posted season-best marks in receptions and yards in a tough matchup against Pat Surtain II and an elite Denver secondary. I wouldn’t expect that sort of target volume moving forward, but he’s always been a solid target earner. McLaurin looked healthy and fast, consistently winning off the release and also finding soft spots in zone coverage. He had a 30-yard touchdown wiped out due to a penalty during overtime, but made up for it later on the same drive.

Most importantly, McLaurin made it out of the game healthy and feeling good. His presence unlocked everything in Washington’s passing attack, with his vertical presence opening up underneath windows for Zach Ertz and Deebo Samuel. Washington’s offense moved the ball better than almost every team against the Broncos’ defense this season, and they could get second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels (elbow) back next week against Minnesota. McLaurin looks as good as he has looked in a while and should be in for a strong final five games of the season.

Upcoming schedule: at MIN, at NYG, vs. PHI, vs. DAL, at PHI

 

SELL

Evan Engram (TE – DEN)

TE6: 9 Targets, 6 Receptions, 79 Receiving Yards

Evan Engram had his best game as a Bronco against Washington, clearing 50 yards for the first time this season. It’s been an otherwise disappointing season for the 31-year-old, who was a pretty significant offseason addition to Denver’s offense. Many expected the veteran tight end to fill the “Joker” role in Sean Payton’s offense, but that hasn’t been the case. His role has gradually increased as the season has gone along, with three of his four highest route shares coming in the past four weeks, but it still hasn’t translated to much fantasy production.

Third-round rookie Pat Bryant has seen his opportunities increase recently as well, recording his three highest route shares over the past three weeks and his two highest target totals in the past two games. Bryant had an interesting prospect profile at the University of Illinois and has shown flashes of his potential in the opportunities he’s received. Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin have been Denver’s clear top two targets all season long, so it will be challenging for Engram to be a consistent producer. I’m selling this game as a sign of improved production down the final stretch of games and him becoming a reliable starter in fantasy.

Upcoming schedule: at LV, vs. GB, vs. JAX, at KC, vs. LAC

 

Rico Dowdle (RB – CAR)

RB36: 18 Carries, 58 Rushing Yards | 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 21 Receiving Yards

Chuba Hubbard is firmly back on the map in Carolina after being written off earlier in the season. In the past two games, it’s been a near-even split between Dowdle and Hubbard. Dowdle has played 52.4% of the snaps to go with 30 touches for 153 yards from scrimmage, compared to Hubbard at 48.6% and 167 total yards and a touchdown. Dowdle was one of the best stories earlier in the year after posting back-to-back games of 200 or more total yards while Hubbard was banged up. Now that Hubbard is further removed from injury, it appears he is regaining more of the workload after starting the season as Carolina’s clear lead back.

Dowdle was still excellent for nearly a third of the season and likely lifted many fantasy managers to the playoffs. From Weeks 5-11, when he was the Panthers’ lead back, he totaled 750 yards and four touchdowns on 140 carries, along with 18 receptions (24 targets) for 177 yards and another score as a receiver. He ranked as the RB4 in total PPR points and RB6 in PPR points per game in that span. The former Dallas Cowboy was one of just nine running backs and receivers to average at least 20 PPR points per game during that time. It seems his ride as an elite fantasy running back has come to an end, as I don’t see Hubbard fading back into a depth role. Carolina will continue to be run-heavy, so Dowdle should still get volume, but Hubbard’s presence certainly limits the upside.

Upcoming schedule: BYE, at NO, vs. TB, vs. SEA, at TB

 

Derrick Henry (RB – BAL)

RB12: 10 Carries, 60 Rushing Yards, 1 TD | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 44 Receiving Yards

Henry hasn’t looked like the same player this season. He’s been much more productive since the return of Lamar Jackson, averaging 17 PPR points per game since Week 9 and 20.1 in the last three games, but the Ravens offense hasn’t been near the same caliber as previous years. Jackson isn’t fully healthy, and Henry’s efficiency and rushing metrics have been poor. His 2.1 yards after contact per attempt this season would be tied for the lowest of his career, and his 0.09 missed tackles forced per attempt ranks 34th out of 38 qualified running backs with at least 100 carries this season.

The 31-year-old has found the end zone four times in the past four games, which has helped him stay productive. But the schedule is among the hardest for running backs over the final five games, and with the current state of the Baltimore offense, it could be tough sledding for Henry as the fantasy playoffs hit. He’s also failed to crack a 60% snap share in each of the past three games despite favorable game scripts. Head coach John Harbaugh has talked up backup running back Keaton Mitchell as well, who always looks dynamic when he gets opportunities, so he could be a factor to give the Ravens a spark. According to RotoViz’s Strength of Schedule streaming app, Baltimore has the third-hardest schedule for the rest of the season. Henry could prove that to be futile as he’s historically crushed when the weather has gotten cold, but it looks tough on paper.

Upcoming schedule: vs. PIT, at CIN, vs. NE, at GB, at PIT

 

 

 

Photo by Melissa Tamez, Cliff Welch | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@CarbonFoxGFX on Twitter/X)