Buy and Sell: Week 16

Buy and Sell for Fantasy Football in Week 16!

Kyle McCarthy
Trade Talk 4 Hours Ago

Week 15 was a nostalgic one for football fans, highlighted by seeing Philip Rivers back on the field. The weekend was packed with wild comebacks, starting Thursday night when Kirk Cousins and the Falcons erased a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to stun the Bucs, briefly putting Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes in jeopardy, until the Panthers blew it on Sunday against the Saints.

Then the Bills pulled off a shocker in New England, spotting the Patriots a 21-0 lead before scoring touchdowns on five straight drives to pull closer to a potential sixth consecutive division title. The toughest moment of the week came when another quarterback went down with an injury. The face of the league for the past eight years, Patrick Mahomes, tore his ACL against the Chargers, creating another parallel between him and Tom Brady, with both QBs tearing their ACLs in year nine of their careers.

Shifting back to fantasy, the first week of the fantasy playoffs likely brought chaos across leagues, as Trevor Lawrence (44.3 points) and Kyle Pitts (45.6 PPR points) delivered historically great performances, two of the top four individual outings of the season. With that, we’ll dive into a few players/performances I’m buying as we head into the second week of the fantasy playoffs.

 

BUY

Kenneth Gainwell (RB – PIT)

RB9: 13 Carries, 80 Rushing Yards | 7 Targets, 7 Receptions, 46 Receiving Yards

Kenneth Gainwell has quietly emerged as one of the league’s most underrated running backs. After signing a one-year, $1.79 million deal with the Steelers this offseason, he’s put together an outstanding season. The 26-year-old has arguably been Pittsburgh’s most important offensive weapon on a unit in desperate need of playmakers. Gainwell has been Aaron Rodgers‘ best friend, as he is one of three running backs to lead their team in receptions, along with superstars De’Von Achane and Christian McCaffrey.

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Via Sam Hoppen

Gainwell is a sneaky league-winner. He just racks up high-value touches, which is everything we want for RBs in fantasy. Gainwell is one of four RBs to post four top 12 weekly finishes over the past five weeks, along with James Cook, Travis Etienne, and Achane. In addition, the former Eagle is one of only five RBs this season to have at least 50 receptions and six total touchdowns, the others being McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and Achane. He’ll still share touches with Jaylen Warren, but he’s handled most of the receiving work and has logged more carries inside the 10-yard line over the past five games, eight to seven. Continue rocking with Kenny G as your RB2/FLEX to finish out the season.

Upcoming schedule: vs. MIN, vs. LAC, at WSH, at NYG

 

Gunnar Helm (TE – TEN)

TE9: 4 Targets, 4 Receptions, 49 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Gunnar Helm is one of the few bright spots for the Titans’ young crew of weapons on offense. The rookie hasn’t quite fully taken over as the full-time TE over Chig Okonkwo, but his role has expanded as the season has gone on. Helm has a 29% targets per route run since Week 11, which ranks second among all tight ends over that span (minimum 75 routes), ranking as the TE15. He leads the team with 21 receptions despite only posting a 43% route share in that time.

Helm isn’t an overwhelming athlete, but he’s smooth at the catch point and has been a reliable target for fellow rookie Cam Ward. His 13.6% catch rate over expectation is the highest in the league among qualified tight ends, per Next Gen Stats. Helm is emerging as a potential streamer in deeper leagues as the regular season comes to an end, but there’s also plenty to like about his profile heading into next season.

Upcoming schedule: vs. KC, vs. NO, at JAX

 

Tyler Shough (QB – NO)

QB16: 24-for-32, 272 Passing Yards, 1 TD | 8 Carries, 32 Rushing Yards

Tyler Shough is another rookie making positive strides as he gets more reps. In six starts, he’s completed 69% of his passes for 226 yards per game, with six touchdowns and six turnovers (four interceptions, two fumbles), while adding 33 carries for 126 yards and two rushing scores. His rushing ability has made him especially appealing in fantasy, and he’s also been impressive attacking the intermediate areas of the field as a passer. The 26-year-old rookie has been a legitimate fantasy option over the past three weeks, ranking as the QB8 in total fantasy points.

Shough boasts impressive athletic traits at 6-foot-5, 219 pounds, with a 9.30 Relative Athletic Score. He’s in a good offensive ecosystem under Kellen Moore and has a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver in Chris Olave to lean on. There are still plenty of things to clean up, but the bones are there for Shough to be a solid dual-threat quarterback in fantasy. He closes out the season with the easiest QB schedule by RotoViz’s SOS streaming app, with the Jets, Titans, and Falcons. Shough profiles as a high-end QB2 in Superflex for the rest of the fantasy playoffs.

Upcoming schedule: vs. NYJ, at TEN, at ATL

 

SELL

Dalton Schultz (TE – HOU)

TE7: 9 Targets, 8 Receptions, 76 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Dalton Schultz delivered his best fantasy outing of the season in Week 15 against Arizona, scoring 21.6 PPR points. It marked his first 20-point game of the year and his highest yardage since Week 9. He’s been a reliable option, ranking as the TE14 in PPR points per game, with two top-five and six top-12 weekly finishes at the position. Since Week 10, his TPRR has been a solid 22%, behind only Nico Collins (27%) and Jayden Higgins (30%), with Higgins emerging as a rising star for the Texans and seeing increased usage. Still, Schultz runs a high number of routes, posting the 10th-highest rate among tight ends at 73.9%, giving him a respectable floor.

The upcoming matchups aren’t ideal for the veteran tight end. Houston faces the Raiders in Week 16, who have given up the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to tight ends, then the Texans take on the Chargers in Week 17, who rank seventh. He’ll continue to be a fringe TE1 with a lower ceiling.

Upcoming schedule: vs. LV, at LAC, vs. IND

 

Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA)

RB57: 9 Carries, 17 Rushing Yards, 1 Target, 1 Reception, 2 Receiving Yards

It’s been a disappointing season for Kenneth Walker. We had him as a buy heading into Week 10, but he ranks as the RB36 with 9.7 PPR points per game over that time. He posted a season-low 2.9 points in Week 15, marking his sixth game under 5.4 points and his 11th in single digits. Walker ranks as the RB25 in total points this season, though it feels lower. Walker has always been a boom-or-bust style of player, but the spike weeks haven’t been there this season, with just one game of 20+ points.

The usage has been frustrating, as he’s been stuck in a near-even split with Zach Charbonnet all season, and he hasn’t done enough with the opportunities he’s received. Walker consistently gets vultured by Charbonnet on the goal line, and he’s scored just one touchdown since Week 3. He was starting to see more usage as a receiver in Weeks 11-13 with three catches in each game, but he’s caught just two balls since. With another tough upcoming matchup on Thursday night against the Rams, Walker projects as a low-end flex at best and is tough to trust.

Upcoming schedule: vs. LAR, at ATL, vs. ARI

 

Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)

QB30: 25-for-39, 225 Passing Yards, 2 INTs | 2 Carries, 5 Rushing Yards

The vibes around Joe Burrow and the Bengals aren’t great right now. He was shutout for the first time in his career last week against the Ravens, throwing two picks and posting a 58.2 passer rating, the second lowest of his career. It was Burrow’s first game without a passing touchdown since Week 6 of last season against the Giants, but he did run for a 47-yard touchdown in that game. His last game without any touchdowns came back in Week 4 in 2023 against the Titans.

Burrow could rebound in Week 16 against Miami, but it’s been a lost season for the Bengals. He looked rusty in the first half of his Thanksgiving return in Baltimore, but played well in the second half and in Week 14 against the Bills outside of two brutal interceptions on back-to-back passes. It was a struggle all day for Burrow against Baltimore in Week 16, and Miami’s defense hasn’t been bad lately, ranking 10th in EPA/Play since Week 10.

Upcoming schedule: at MIA, vs. ARI, vs. CLE

 

 

 

Photo by Melissa Tamez, Cliff Welch | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@CarbonFoxGFX on Twitter/X)