Buy and Sell: Week 4

Buy and Sell for Fantasy Football in Week 4

Kyle McCarthy
Trade Talk 11 Hours Ago

Week 4 of the NFL season is here, and there are some highly intriguing players who are exciting to think about. Some players we like may have had duds in Week 3 for a variety of reasons, but that can create a buying window in some instances.

Then, on the other hand, as the effects of the long season start to kick in and injuries inevitably hit, what players emerge, and how do their roles evolve? We are already starting to see some teams work through that with some injuries that have taken place. It opens the door for some young players to make an impact immediately and stamp their name.

It’s also vital to watch the games to get as much context as possible for players. The box score is not always reflective of what transpired in the game, and some weird things happen for players in poor fantasy games that can be explained by getting eyes on it. Let’s get to some names that we are buying and selling for Week 4.

 

BUY

Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR)

WR48: 8 Targets, 3 Receptions, 48 Yards

 

Tetairoa McMillan may not have had a big fantasy day, but he still looked the part and had a highlight catch that made the rounds on social media. The 22-year-old has established himself as Carolina’s alpha, earning a team high in targets in each game so far in his career with 9 in Week 1 vs. JAX, 10 in Week 2 vs. ARI, and 8 this week. He physically imposes himself after the catch, and his YAC ability has been a legitimate strength so far, ranking 14th among receivers in that area with 74.

His ability to win in contested catch situations is well-known, and he’s shown the ability to win vertically in the short time he’s played. Opportunities for explosive deep shots down the field should likely come, and have a good probability of hitting. While it hasn’t been the smoothest of starts for third-year QB Bryce Young, he had the second-highest Big Time Throw rate (7.9%) in the second half of last season, only behind Lamar Jackson, per PFF. Otherwise, he should continue to feast on routes in the intermediate depth of the field as the only true threat at receiver for Carolina. He was drafted to be an alpha from Day 1, and all the returns are positive. Week 3 was an odd divisional game with McMillan having a dud day, but it can be used to target him in a trade, potentially. Upcoming schedule: at NE, vs. MIA, vs. DAL, at NYJ, vs. BUF

 

J.K. Dobbins (RB – DEN)

RB14: 11 Rushes, 83 Yards, 1 TD | 2 Targets, 1 Reception, 0 Yards

 

J.K. Dobbins has found a nice fit with Denver and has gotten off to a productive start to the year. He’s scored almost the same number of points in each game, with 14.8 PPR points in Week 1, 15.5. in Week 2, and 15.3 in Week 3. The Denver offense is going to continue to be very fantasy-friendly for the running backs with an elite offensive line and the combination of Bo Nix‘s willingness to check down and Sean Payton’s offense historically favoring running back targets. Dobbins is owning the snaps in the backfield currently, and it will be interesting to see where it lands moving forward. He earned 71% of the snaps in Week 3, up from 47% in Week 2. He also saw an uptick in routes run, going from 25% to 41%. Dobbins has drawn two targets in every game so far, but his 19-yard rushing touchdown came when Nix stepped up and lateraled a checkdown to Dobbins out in the flat, where he made a tremendous play to burst up the sideline, stay in bounds, and find the end zone.

He will continue to be heavily involved in passing downs for his prowess as a pass protector, plus he is quite capable as a receiver. In addition to a favorable workload and situation, he is maximizing his touches with premium efficiency. Dobbins has a 17.1% Explosive Run Rate, which ranks fourth out of 41 running backs, and a 34.1% Avoided Tackle Rate, which ranks 10th per FTN Fantasy. He’s tied for second in the league with three rushing touchdowns as he has goal-line duties locked down. Dobbins doesn’t have the long speed to create the breakaway runs needed for a monster upside case, but he is a legit good back in a very positive situation. Rookie R.J. Harvey figures to see more touches at some point in the year and will likely continue to be worked in in the near term. Sean Payton has supported multiple running backs for fantasy before, and it’s a matter of whether this version of the Broncos offense could support that. Dobbins should continue to score a healthy amount of points and be a weekly plug-and-play option. Upcoming schedule: vs. CIN, at PHI, at NYJ, vs. NYG, vs. DAL

 

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB – WAS)

RB26: 8 Rushes, 26 Yards 1 TD | 1 Target, 1 Reception, 5 Yards

 

Jacory Croskey-Merritt didn’t quite take over the Washington backfield following Austin Ekeler‘s unfortunate season-ending injury in Week 2. He did, however, lead the team in snaps at 41% while running the most routes at 23%, and also tied Chris Rodriguez for two goal-line carries. Croskey-Merritt, or more commonly known as “Bill,” is super sudden and juiced up with great vision as a runner. He’s able to run for power as well, frequently churning his legs and falling forward for extra yardage. His per-touch peripherals are all outstanding, showing explosive run ability and a proficiency for avoiding tackles.

The seventh-round rookie forced three missed tackles in the game and has been one of the most successful runners in the league on a down-to-down basis. He is one of four running backs to have a rushing Success Rate of at least 50% so far this year, including Javonte Williams, Jordan Mason, and James Cook. The coaching staff is still easing him into more responsibilities in terms of playing without the ball, something that offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury touched on specifically. He was trusted in pass protection in a few spots against the Raiders, and he held up well, which is good to see. Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols are not going anywhere and will continue to be involved, but Croskey-Merritt is already seeing the most favorable usage and has the efficiency to make up for the lack of big volume. It’s a good spot to buy because his Week 3 production wasn’t massive, but the underlying usage is positive and is likely to grow in the future. Washington has already run for over 200 yards as a team twice in three games and should be a top running team with Jayden Daniels healthy. JCM has the best chance to lead a really good offensive team in yards and touchdowns. Upcoming schedule: at ATL, at LAC, vs. CHI, at DAL, at KC

 

SELL

DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)

WR9: 9 Targets, 8 Receptions, 60 Yards, 1 TD

DeVonta Smith and the Eagles’ passing attack finally had a day when they needed it to pull out a comeback win against the Rams. Star receivers A.J. Brown and Smith led the way, combining for 19 targets and each finding the end zone. That is typically how the Philadelphia passing game has operated, consolidated around its top three stars, including tight end Dallas Goedert.

Notably, Goedert missed this game due to injury. Smith’s numbers predictably spike with him out of the lineup, earning 16 PPR points per game compared to 12.9 with him in. There’s also the obvious aspect of the Eagles wanting to play very run-heavy with Saquon Barkley. They currently have the fourth-lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation (-6.6%). The ceiling for Smith is capped to begin with because of the passing volume and Hurts’ limitations as a passer. That’s moreso been on display this season with the passing attack looking abysmal. Smith is an excellent real-life football player, but if you can capitalize on this game and part with him for the right price, then it is worth looking into. Upcoming schedule: at TB, vs. DEN, at. NYG, at MIN, vs. NYG

 

Tony Pollard (RB – TEN)

RB15: 16 Rushes, 45 Yards, 1 TD | 4 Targets, 2 Receptions. 14 Yards

Tony Pollard continues to get fed plenty of touches for a bad Tennessee team and somewhat salvaged his day with a touchdown in Week 3. I discussed in the preseason the reasons for being out on Pollard, mainly revolving around his lack of receiving and overall dead-zone back type profile. And the offense was projected to be poor with a rookie QB. Cam Ward has struggled adjusting to the speed of the NFL and has struggled to move the ball, with the offense stuck in 31st in offensive Success Rate (36.8%).

The run game has not been efficient for the Titans, and they likely won’t be in too many game situations where they are playing from ahead and running the ball to close the game out. Pollard played 92% of snaps in Week 3, and Tyjae Spears is set to return at some point soon. He could work his way into a more even split, or it could take him longer to get up to speed. Fantasy managers could again leverage the touchdown and a solid fantasy day to look for a more dynamic player. Upcoming schedule: at HOU, at ARI, at LV, vs. NE, at IND

 

Woody Marks (RB – HOU)

RB50: 6 Rushes, 27 Yards, 2 Targets, 1 Reception, 9 Yards

Woody Marks is a perfectly fine and good waiver pickup and stash for future weeks to see what happens in Houston, but I am selling that situation for the most part. I don’t see Marks having a meaningful impact in fantasy given the state of their offensive line, offensive scheme, and quarterback play. Not many players are playing well for that offense, as they failed to score 40 points in three weeks of football.

Marks didn’t have a great prospect profile as a runner and was almost purely receiving production. He has looked good on a handful of receptions and in creating yards after the catch this season, for what it’s worth. He set a season high in snap share with 49% in Week 3, so if he ascends to take over the bulk of the snaps and touches in the backfield, he could have FLEX appeal. But the touchdown equity will be low, and it’d be a lot of inefficient rushes, hopefully mixed in with multiple receptions with some efficiency. He’s worth picking up if available, but if you can sell the idea to someone else for another bet on another exciting player in a better situation, I’d do it. Upcoming schedule: vs. TEN, at BAL, BYE, at SEA, vs. SF

 

Photo by Randy Litzinger, Robin Alam | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@CarbonFoxGFX on Twitter/X)