Buy and Sell: Week 5

Buy and Sell for Fantasy Football in Week 5!

Kyle McCarthy
Trade Talk 2 Months Ago

The first month of the 2025 NFL season has come and gone. The final games of September across the league had plenty of intrigue, including the undefeated Chargers getting upset by the winless Giants in rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart’s first start. Unfortunately, injuries were also a big story as they struck a few big names in Week 4, notably Malik Nabers and Tyreek Hill.

Two wide receivers that were top-15 by ADP on most platforms are both done for the season in the same week. That obviously shifts the fantasy landscape significantly moving forward. How will the Dolphins redistribute their targets? What will the Giants’ offense even look like over an extended period of time without Nabers?

Parsing through the signal and noise of early-season football is the challenging part. We are looking for high-upside bets early in the year that could pay off at the end of the season. So with a month of information and data, I will provide a few buy and sell recommendations. Let’s get to the players.

 

BUY

Stefon Diggs (WR – NE)

WR18: 7 Targets, 6 Receptions, 101 Yards

Stefon Diggs ran the most routes of the season so far at 84.2% as he continues to work his way back from his ACL injury. Diggs dominated targets in his first game with close to a full route share, earning a monster 44% Targets Per Route Run (TPRR). More positively, it also came on a higher than average 13.0 aDOT, showing the ability to win downfield. The connection between Diggs and QB Drake Maye is building as they hit on multiple explosive plays, including a back-shoulder throw for 30 yards on 4th down.

Maye has also been playing some really good ball and may be taking that second-year leap. For the season, he is fourth in EPA/Play (0.289) and fifth in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) (8.7%), per RBSDM.com. And if you exclude a shaky Week 1 performance against the Raiders, he ranks first in both categories. He’s been a highly accurate thrower and has consistently moved the ball for New England. Diggs is still working his way back to full health, but he’s been a target hog nearly every step of his career. Before getting injured last year in Houston, he was operating out of the slot opposite an alpha in Nico Collins and a rising receiver in Tank Dell and was still able to earn a 25% TPRR and eight targets per game. It was a lot of underneath catches, but his role was starting to grow right as he got injured. In a New England wide receiver room that is barren of talent, Diggs has the runway to be the go-to receiver for potentially the next star QB in the league. There’s legit top 20 WR upside for the rest of the season.

Upcoming schedule: at BUF, at NO, at TEN, vs. CLE, vs. ATL

 

Troy Franklin (WR – DEN)

WR35: 8 Targets, 4 Receptions, 55 Yards

Troy Franklin had a decent rebound in Week 4 after letting many fantasy managers down with a stinker in Week 3. He was a hot add after breaking out for 100 total yards and a TD on nine targets in Week 2. But on a positive note, Franklin has operated alongside Courtland Sutton as the team’s two primary pass catchers. Franklin’s lowest route rate came in Week 1, where he was still full-time at 73.2%. The next three games were: 90%, 92.6%, and 83.3% in Week 4. No other Denver pass catcher has been higher than a 61% route rate in a game this season, per FTN Fantasy.

That’s significant for Franklin because Sean Payton likes to rotate his receivers historically. But Franklin is locked into a near-every-snap role and is getting schemed up plenty of looks. It’s been an ideal mix of designed targets and rushes to take advantage of his dynamic YAC ability, but also plenty of deep shots to use his vertical juice. He had 114 air yards in Week 4 and just missed on a few big plays. To be fair, Franklin did drop two of them. But the usage has still been exciting. For the season, he’s matched Sutton in targets (27) and has the fourth-highest red zone target share in the league (43%). There’s real contingency upside if Sutton were to miss any time as well. If Franklin was dropped after last week, I’d definitely be buying into him as a legitimate fantasy contributor with upside, with a wave of bye weeks looming.

Upcoming schedule: at PHI, at NYJ, vs. NYG, vs. DAL, at HOU

 

Harold Fannin Jr. (TE – CLE)

TE31: 6 Targets, 2 Receptions, 24 Yards | 1 Rush, 1 Yard

We are buying another player who ran the most routes of the season this past week, with Harold Fannin Jr. For the first time this season, Fannin played more snaps and ran the same number of routes as fellow tight end David Njoku. The high in routes came after Cedric Tillman left early with an injury and has now been placed on IR. While the production was modest for Fannin, he ran 71% of the routes while drawing six targets. He could have had a much bigger day, but just missed on a couple of plays downfield that could have made the final line look better.

Fannin’s involvement in the offense has been steady from the start of his career, and now an injury to a key starting receiver in Tillman could open the door for head coach Kevin Stefanski to lean into his young stud even more. Not to mention, Cleveland has a new quarterback in the huddle with rookie Dillon Gabriel set to start in Week 5 against Minnesota in London. The rookie-to-rookie connection will be exciting to watch.  You never know with rookie QBs, but Gabriel is almost assuredly an upgrade over Joe Flacco at this stage. He has the worst success rate (35.4%) out of 35 qualified QBs this season. Gabriel is a good athlete with excellent underneath accuracy, which bodes well for Fannin, who is a monster with the ball in his hands. He’s forced the most missed tackles (11) out of any tight end this season, per PFF. He was a generational player at Bowling Green, with his 2024 season being one of the best TE seasons in CFB history. And now he’s a 21-year-old (turned 21 in July) rookie who is doing the same stuff in the NFL. It’s worth noting the Browns’ shift to using Quinshon Judkins more and perhaps establishing a run-heavy mindset, but Fannin is still a good bet if he is running full routes. He can be a top 8-10 TE the rest of the way pretty feasibly.

Upcoming schedule: vs. MIN, at PIT, vs. MIA, at NE, BYE

 

SELL

Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI)

RB16: 19 Rushes, 43 Yards, 1 TD | 4 Targets, 4 Receptions, 31 Yards

It’s a dangerous game to suggest selling the most dangerous runner in the game, but that is what we’re doing here. Some may think of Saquon Barkley as a buy low with his slower start, but he just hasn’t looked like the same guy this season. That should have been expected to an extent after he totaled 482 touches last year and considering what we know about the season following such big workloads.

Barkley averaged less than 4 YPC in a game only twice last season, and he’s yet to exceed that mark this year. He posted a +8 Rushing Yards Over Expectation (RYOE) in Week 1, but has since been negative in every game starting in Week 2: -14, -12, -21. He had only two games with worse than a -12 RYOE in a game last season. One case against this is that his involvement as a receiver has ticked up this season. He’s averaging 17.5 yards on over three catches and four targets per game so far. Comparatively, he consistently saw four to five targets per game with the Giants and over two targets per game last season with the Eagles. If that sustains, it could help counteract some of the rushing inefficiency along with touchdowns. However, I’d still be looking to sell if possible.

Upcoming schedule: vs. DEN, at NYG, at MIN, vs. NYG, BYE

 

Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)

RB34: 13 Rushes, 77 Yards | 4 Targets, 3 Receptions. 17 Yards

Kyren Williams’ snap and rush share has been sliding of late. He played 81.7% of the snaps and handled 78% of the rushing attempts in Week 1. In Week 4, he played 68% of the snaps and had a 57% rush attempt share. Williams has still produced with 13.4 PPR PPG so far, but ceding work to Blake Corum, who has looked good, isn’t ideal. Some of Williams’ avoid tackle peripherals are favorable, but he’s not the most explosive runner.

The thesis for Williams has been and will continue to be based on volume. And if he has it, then he will most likely be fine because the lead back role in a McVay offense is a fantasy gold mine. However, it’s worth acknowledging that Williams fumbled in the fourth quarter of their Week 4 win over the Colts, but he was in on the very next drive, handling touches. Fumbles have been an issue for the Rams’ running back. His nine fumbles since 2023 are the second most by a running back. I don’t think Williams is going to outright lose his starting job, but Corum has some juice and could feasibly continue to rotate in at a 40% snap share or so. And that will limit the mass amount of volume that has elevated Williams.

Upcoming schedule: vs. SF, at BAL, at JAX, BYE, vs. NO

 

Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)

RB29: 15 Rushes, 70 Yards | 5 Targets, 4 Receptions, 2 Yards

I’ve likely been too critical of Kamara in the past, as he’s aged gracefully. The rushing peripherals were bad a few years ago, and while they are still not great, they were better last year, and he’s again looked good this year. The situation change and its effect on Kamara’s scoring outlook as one of the main reasons for me being out on him in the preseason, and that has borne out. Kamara is an outstanding receiving back, but he’s played most of his career with two QBs who peppered the running back position in Drew Brees and Derek Carr. He’s played a handful of games without either of them, but with Spencer Rattler, he is averaging by far the lowest number of targets, receptions, and receiving yards per game in his career. The fewest that he has ever had in a season are 67 targets and 47 receptions for 439 yards. He currently has just 15 targets and 13 receptions for 49 yards. That puts him on a 17-game pace of 64 targets, 55 receptions, and 208 yards.

While the Saints look like one of the two worst teams in football, head coach Kellen Moore does have their offense playing an interesting style. They are playing near the fastest pace in the league and going No-Huddle at the second-highest rate (26.1%). It hasn’t translated to much success yet with the fifth-fewest points (66) and sixth-lowest EPA/Play (-0.073) in the league. In addition, a real reason I’d be looking to sell Kamara is because of Kendre Miller. Miller is a guy that I loved as a prospect and have been impressed by anytime he’s had an opportunity. His peripherals have always been top-notch in small samples, and he looked especially electric against the Bills. He earned a carry on the first drive of the game for New Orleans and took it to the house for an 18-yard touchdown. Miller has forced 12 missed tackles on only 28 rushing attempts!  He could be working his way into making the backfield a more 50/50 type with Kamara, with how great he’s looked.

Upcoming schedule: vs. NYG, vs. NE, at CHI, vs. TB, at LAR

 

 

 

Photo by Fred Kfoury III, Andy Lewis | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@CarbonFoxGFX on Twitter/X)