Injuries and bye weeks. Oh boy. Now it’s time for actual fantasy football season, when those who put in the grit of battling injuries and bye weeks separate themselves. We can complain about losing Saquon Barkley to a hamstring issue or Lamar Jackson to a sprained ankle, or we can buckle up and see what moves we can make to get back on track, or how we can keep building off early-season success.
BUY
Bhayshul Tuten, Running Back, Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 4: 17 carries, 73 yards, 2 targets, 2 receptions, 18 yards
The box score is nothing to lose our minds over. 11.1 PPR points is fine, but I think we’ve all hoped for a little more from Tuten so far. We’re waiting for that true breakout game, and just haven’t seen it yet. Plenty of peripheral numbers, however, point to a breakout happening for Tuten, signaling now is the time to trade for Tuten before it’s too late. First off, the NJ native had two touchdowns called back on holding penalties, one being a 44-yard run and the other from 3 yards. It very easily could have been an explosive day for Tuten in Cincinnati, but instead these two holding calls keep Tuten as an affordable buy opportunity.
More importantly, multiple underlying metrics for Tuten are all going in the right direction, according to Joe Metz of fantasylife.com. Tuten’s snaps, rush attempts, routes, targets, and utilization score (Dwain McFarland’s data point) were all at a season high in Week 4, with most of those metrics steadily increasing throughout the young season. The goal line role isn’t there yet for Tuten, but the Week 5 matchup for Tuten is advantageous. The Jaguars face the Eagles in London on Sunday morning, who give up the seventh-most rushing yards per game to Running Backs and provide the second-most opportunities per game to Running Backs across the league. With how poor the Eagles’ offense has played lately, this could be a positive game script for Tuten, where the Jaguars have plenty of chances to run the ball and control the clock. Get Tuten on your roster before the price isn’t as feasible.
Schedule: vs Eagles (London), vs Texans (London), BYE, vs Colts, @ Ravens
Josh Allen, Quarterback, Buffalo Bills
Week 4: 253 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 5 carries, 4 yards, 1 rushing TD
It’s crazy to me that I’m even writing Josh Allen‘s name, but if there was ever a time that Allen could be had in a trade it’s now. It’s still going to cost you, and it’s not going to be easy, but if there’s a way you can take advantage of Allen’s lower outputs in Weeks 3 and 4 and you can get him on your roster, it should at least be looked into. Now, Allen still had around 17 and 18 standard fantasy points in Weeks 3 and 4, respectively, but the Allen manager could be frustrated knowing they likely spent a third-round pick on him. They want more than what you can find on the waiver wire.
The caveat to buying Josh Allen is the record of his manager. 1-3 or worse, and it’s a go. They may be panicking that they spent too much draft capital on a quarterback and want to recoup some of the value they missed out on at the WR or RB position. This is probably a move more so for a 3-1 or a 2-2 team with a strong point total so far that’s looking to find that piece to really put them over the top. Moving Brock Purdy and an RB or WR, whichever position you have more depth at ideally, is a realistic trade example. Trading for Josh Allen would be the blockbuster transaction of the year in your league, but don’t be afraid to do it if you’ve had a good start to the season and can afford to trade an RB or WR. Also, the Bills travel to LA in Week 5 for a Monday night matchup against the Rams, which sits at a high point total of 54.5, depending on where you look, meaning we might see Allen throwing a lot more. Buying Allen before he has a 35 or 40-point total may give you a good sale price before he turns back into the elite producer that he is at quarterback.
Schedule: @ Rams, @ Raiders, vs Ravens, @ Vikings, @ Jets
Michael Wilson, Wide Receiver, Arizona Cardinals
Week 4: 13 targets, 7 receptions, 95 yards
Usually I focus on buy-low candidates, but plenty of reasons exist why it’s time to get in on Michael Wilson even if the price is a bit steep. Let’s start with the targets. The Stanford product has 30 of them over the past two weeks, an outrageous number that alone needs to put Wilson on your radar as a trade target. That’s 21 more targets than Marvin Harrison Jr. between Weeks 3 and 4, showing who is much more of the focal point of this Cardinals offense. Obviously, quarterback Jacoby Brissett has much greater trust in and chemistry with Wilson. Speaking of Marvin Harrison Jr., ESPN’s Adam Schefter mentioned Harrison as a player who may be traded ahead of the deadline.
I can’t think of a player who could benefit more from a change of scenery, maybe in NFL history, than Harrison Jr. Not that Harrison commands much volume, but trading him would consolidate this offense even further, giving a potential boost to Wilson’s fantasy stock.
The matchup in Week 5 also can’t get any better with the Detroit Lions coming to town. Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan completely torched the Lions defense for 14 receptions, 192 yards, and two touchdowns last week. Detroit gives up the second-most fantasy points to Wide Receivers (how it is not the most??), making this arguably the most attractive matchup that Wilson will face all season. The Lions’ explosive offense forces opposing offenses to try to keep up with them on the scoreboard, and the Cardinals defense doesn’t project to offer much resistance to Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the rest of the Lions offense. This game has all the ingredients of a fantasy bonanza, making it the perfect time to try to trade for Michael Wilson before the price jumps even more.
Schedule: vs Lions, @ Rams, vs Broncos, @ Cardinals, @ Seahawks
George Pickens, Wide Receiver, Dallas Cowboys
Week 4: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 75 yards
We have a bonus buy opportunity heading into Week 5 in WR George Pickens. WR CeeDee Lamb was out of control on Sunday in Houston, coming away with 17 receptions for 189 yards. As incredible as that is, it’s not going to happen every week. Lamb out-targeted Pickens 20 to 3, something that should prove to be an outlier. Fantasy Life’s Zain Dhanani noted that Pickens still ran 92% of the routes and had 15.6 expected PPR points on 9.5 real fantasy points. Dhanani also noted that 37% of his routes were vertical patterns, a route less likely to help Pickens earn target volume, and therefore fantasy points.
The Cowboys face the Buccaneers at home on Thursday night, not the most imposing matchup that exists. Pickens’ managers could be freaking out over Lamb’s usage on Sunday, potentially giving you the chance to acquire Pickens in a trade at a reduced cost.
Schedule: vs Bucs, @ Packers, @ Eagles, vs Cardinals, @ Colts, vs 49ers
SELL
Tetairoa McMillan, Wide Receiver, Carolina Panthers
Week 4: 14 receptions, 192 yards, 2 touchdowns
Similar to buying Josh Allen, selling Tetairoa McMillan seems crazy after his incredible Week 4 performance. The Lions, however, are about as easy as it’s going to get for McMillan in terms of matchup. Wide Receiver Jalen Coker was also out with an injury, and now the Panthers have a bye week, giving Coker an extra week to get healthy. With Coker on the field, McMillan is going to have a hard time matching the absurd target share he had on Sunday night. If you’re deep at receiver and are probably at least 3-1, seeing what you can get for McMillan in a trade is worth a shot. Getting a stud running back in return, like Kenneth Walker, who is also a bye week, or a package of quality players that can add more depth and flexibility to your roster should be pretty much the only ways you move off of McMillan. Make sure it costs the person a significant amount for them to buy the second-year receiver following his best game as a pro, and after one of the best performances we’re going to see all year.
Check out this trade transaction chart on Yahoo showing recent trades involving McMillan. Not all of them are good models to go off if you’re thinking of trading him, but some of them may point you in the right direction of what a trade should look like.
Schedule: BYE, @ Eagles, vs Bucs, @ Packers, vs Broncos, @ Saints
Ollie Gordon, Running Back, Miami Dolphins
Week 4: 9 carries, 100 rushing yards, 1 touchdown, 2 targets, 2 receptions, 0 yards
If you picked up Ollie Gordon off waivers heading into Week 4 and started him, things worked out great for you. His 18 PPR points were probably more than you expected against a difficult Vikings defense, but a 53-yard run and a 12-yard run for a touchdown helped spur Gordon into the RB16 on the week in full PPR scoring. The Dolphins offense, however, is barely operable. According to JJ Zachariason of lateround.com, only six teams have had fewer touchdowns through the first four weeks than the Dolphins have had since 2016. Miami has found the end zone just a total of four times through Week 4. Selling a player on a really poor offense after a good week is the first reason to move off of Gordon. Zachariason also noted their expected points model only had Gordon for 6.9 expected PPR points this past week, not to mention the unspectacular usage. A 60% snap share, 50% rush share, and 45% route share are okay, but it’s not like the Dolphins gave him elite bellcow work. His 11.1 yards per carry in Week 4 is also not going to hold up.
Between Gordon far exceeding his expected PPR points number, the okay usage, and the fact that he’s part of the NFL’s worst offense, now is the perfect time to trade him. Plenty of teams in your league probably need help at running back. The Saquon Barkley manager is hurting. The Chase Brown manager might be panicking. If the Kenneth Walker team has had a slow start (probably not, but you never know), he’s now on a bye week, so they may look at Gordon as a guy who can provide immediate production, not that you’ll be getting Walker back in a trade. If you picked up Gordon as more of a depth piece than a guy you need to rely on, then trading him for help at Wide Receiver or Tight End is optimal. See how you can maximize your profit off a player you just picked up and is going to have a hard time maintaining his Week 4 production.
Schedule: vs Bengals, @ Jets, vs Patriots, vs Lions, @ Colts
Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire | Featured image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)