Buy and Sell: Week 6

Buy and Sell for Fantasy Football in Week 6

Kyle McCarthy
Trade Talk A Month Ago

Week 5 of the NFL season brought numerous wacky outcomes with more double-digit comeback wins (6) than the rest of the season combined (5), credit to Scott Kacsmar on X for that note. Those games were: Giants at Saints, Broncos at Eagles, Dolphins at Panthers, Titans at Cardinals,  Commanders at Chargers, and capped with the Chiefs at the Jaguars on Monday night.

It fittingly capped with one of the strangest games of the season as Trevor Lawrence made one bonehead mistake after another. But he orchestrated a rather chaotic game-winning drive and capped it with a rushing touchdown after getting stepped on by the center, falling down again, and then scurrying to his left to find the end zone with 23 seconds remaining.

What a way to propel us into the second month of the NFL season. There are some leaguewide trends to make quick note of as we move past the quarter mark of the season. Play volume is down league-wide, but scoring is up a bit from last year. Week 5 saw the highest league average offensive success rate of any week so far.

NFL Weekly Offensive Averages (Weeks 1-5)

 

Will that continue? Who knows. But we’ve clearly rebounded after Week 1 acted as an extension of the preseason for most teams. With that, we can lead into a few fantasy buy and sell recommendations heading into Week 6. Let’s dive in.

 

BUY

Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)

WR8: 9 Targets, 6 Receptions, 110 Yards, 1 Touchdown

The case for Waddle was thought to be relatively straightforward once Tyreek Hill went down. Waddle was expected to immediately take over as the de facto No. 1 target in the passing game, and it played out that exactly that way in Week 5 against Carolina. He led the way with a 28% TPRR and 144 air yards, fifth most on the week. Before Week 5, the one game for Waddle without Hill was making the rounds on Twitter this week. He blew up for 142 yards and a touchdown on eight catches (nine targets) in that game. The final line was pretty darn similar in his second game without his speedy teammate. But we also have his 104 catch rookie season without Hill, when he dominated volume and finished as WR13 in total PPR points. The 26-year-old looks fully prepared to be the focal point of the Miami passing attack and is primed for monster spike performances in the coming weeks.

There was a slight bit of hesitation about whether Waddle was ready or capable of upgrading to No. 1 WR status, or if he best operates off of another alpha. The early returns look very favorable and paint Waddle as a clear buy-high in all formats. The emergence of Darren Waller is worth mentioning, and it could negatively impact Waddle in the red zone because Waller has scored three times already. But another viable receiving option should help keep Miami as an offense to be invested in for fantasy purposes, as their porous defense will create a ton of shootout-style game environments.

Upcoming schedule: vs. LAC, at CLE, at ATL, vs. BAL, vs. BUF

 

Jayden Daniels (QB – WSH)

QB16: 15-for-26, 231 Passing Yards, 1 TD | 8 Rushes, 39 Yards

In case you needed a reminder of just how good Jayden Daniels is, his return to action against the vaunted Chargers defense essentially served as his introduction to the 2025 NFL season. Against a Chargers defense that led the league with a 38% success rate going into the week, Daniels and the dominant Washington run game led the offense to a 97th percentile success rate (57%). He was solid in their Week 1 win over the Giants, but facing that rabid Packers defense four days later was a challenge. After banging up his knee in Washington’s Week 2 tough loss at Lambeau Field, Daniels missed two games and 23 days in total.

Week 5 in Los Angeles marked the homecoming game for Daniels, who grew up roughly 70 miles away in San Bernardino, CA. After knocking some rust off on the first couple of drives, Daniels converted a crucial 3rd and 16 to rookie WR Jaylin Lane to sustain a drive for Washington, which eventually led to their first touchdown drive. He was dialed in from that moment on, frequently connecting with Deebo Samuel in the intermediate range of the field and using his dynamic rushing ability when necessary. Plenty of people had concerns with him wearing a knee brace during the game, but you wouldn’t have known with how smooth and sudden he moved in and out of the pocket. He had a handful of incredible throws in the game too, including a 50-yard bomb to Luke McCaffrey to set up a field goal to tie the game at 10-10 before the half. Daniels is a clear buy as a top 3 fantasy QB for the rest of the season with how Washington’s offense could explode here over the coming weeks. Top WR Terry McLaurin is hopeful to return in Week 6 against the Bears on Monday night, as well as stud RG Sam Cosmi. They also gave rookie RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Bill) his biggest workload of the season, and he looks like a budding star. This has been one of the league’s best offenses without arguably their three best players (Daniels, McLaurin, Cosmi) for multiple games. With Kliff Kingsbury’s offense centered around Daniels’ unique skillset, if his fantasy manager has any sort of doubts about his health or worries of a sophomore slump, swoop in and take the opportunity.

Upcoming schedule: vs. CHI, at DAL, at KC, vs. SEA, vs. DET

 

Michael Carter (RB – ARI)

RB9: 18 Rushes, 51 Yards, 1 TD | 5 Targets, 5 Receptions, 22 Yards

Michael Carter announced himself as the starting running back for Week 5 during an interview earlier in the week, and he produced a great day for fantasy managers who relied on him. Carter is in line to be the primary back for multiple weeks now with Trey Benson on IR and James Conner out for the season. He played 57.6% of the snaps, handled 62.1% of the rushing attempts, and ran 54.3% of the team’s routes, all of which were highs among Cardinals running backs. His 23 touches were the fourth most of any running back in the week. Yes, he was very inefficient, averaging just 2.8 YPC, but you love to see the volume.

I’m listing Carter as a short-term buy as he will be a rock-solid RB2 until Benson returns. He should have a very high weekly floor because of his activity as a receiver. He caught five balls on five targets for 22 yards in Week 5, and in his two starts as a workhorse last season, he caught two of two targets for 11 yards and four of four targets for 16 yards. That raises the floor significantly for these replacement-level backs, as a heavy workload of strictly low-value touches is less appealing. But he gets the good stuff with the goal line work and plenty of receptions. He’s a solid buy for the next three to four games and possibly more if Benson’s knee issues linger.

Upcoming schedule: at IND, vs. GB, BYE, at DAL, at SEA

 

SELL

Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL)

TE2: 9 Targets, 7 Receptions, 49 Yards, 2 Touchdowns

I am treading somewhat lightly here, as how could you sell Jake Ferguson right now? He is lapping the tight end position in scoring right now at 86.2 PPR points, with the next closest being Dalton Kincaid at 66.7. The difference between Ferguson and Kincaid is as big as the difference between Kincaid and Kyle Pitts, who is TE13 at 46.5 PPR points. That’s pretty ridiculous. He’s swallowed up a ton of volume as an underneath safety blanket for Dak Prescott. He has not been efficient with his catches, with not one of his games averaging more than 10 yards per reception.

You could almost pass those off as rushing lines. His ball-in-hand ability hasn’t been very impressive, ranking 32nd out of 50 TEs in YAC/Reception at 3.8, and 40th in Yards/Target. And the most important factor is the health of superstar WR CeeDee Lamb, who will be back relatively soon. I am very much selling the idea of Ferguson finishing as TE1 at the end of the season, but he will score. I still very much prefer to bet on guys like Sam LaPorta or Tyler Warren for the rest of the season.

Upcoming schedule: at CAR, vs. WSH, at DEN, vs. ARI, BYE

 

D.K. Metcalf (WR – PIT)

WR7: 5 Targets, 5 Receptions, 126 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

D.K. Metcalf and the Steelers were on bye in Week 5. The last time we saw Metcalf was in London against the Vikings, and he caught a ball on a crosser and housed it for an 80-yard touchdown. The Pittsburgh offense has been pretty gross outside of their incredibly weird Week 1 game against the Jets. And even then, they only had 271 total yards. Pittsburgh has exceeded 300 total yards once and been outgained in every game this season, and holds a 3-1 record. The Steelers want to win each game in the ugliest way possible by limiting possessions and keeping the ball on the ground plenty.

For the season, they are 20th in early down pass rate and a flat pass rate over expected. Aaron Rodgers likes to play super slow, so he scans the defense before the snap, which really limits play volume. None of their games have exceeded 56 plays in a game this season, well below the league average of about 61. Rodgers began the season with 30 and 33 pass attempts in the first two games, then dropped to 23 and 22 in their next two games. And Metcalf hasn’t been earning many targets to begin with, at just 18.5% through four games. The most targets he had in a game as 7 back in Week 1. It helps that there is no other option for targets, but it’s not a fantasy-friendly offense, and he will really need those explosive plays and touchdowns to pay off in many weeks.

Upcoming schedule: vs. CLE, at CIN, vs. GB, vs. IND, at LAC

 

D.J. Moore (WR – CHI)

WR46: 5 Targets, 4 Receptions, 38 Receiving Yards

D.J. Moore and the Bears were also on bye in Week 5. It’s been an underwhelming season through four games for Moore, catching 16 of 21 targets for 173 yards and a touchdown while adding six rushes for 15 yards. He has taken a clear backseat to second-year WR Rome Odunze, who looks like he is fully breaking out. He nearly has as many receptions on the season (20) as Moore does targets (21). And he’s even been out-targeted by veteran WR Olamide Zaccheus in the early going.

In addition, rookie WR Luther Burden is primed to see a boost in playing time with the classic “post bye rookie bump.” Burden is a super-talented, early breakout WR who earned early-day 2 draft capital. Head coach Ben Johnson handpicked this guy to be a major weapon for them, and a full off week is an okay time to install some packages for your shiny new toy. The vibes between Moore and the new coaching staff have never felt that great, and it’s clear that he is not an emphasis in the Chicago offense right now. That could change, of course, because Moore is still a very talented player. And the offense looks to be really clicking at times when Caleb Williams has time and can operate in structure. But it’s not a top-of-the-league offense, and it would likely need to be close to that to support all these pass catchers. Moore still has some of that name value, and off a bye week, he could potentially be flipped for someone like Michael Pittman, who I’d rather have for the rest of the season.

Upcoming schedule: at WSH, vs. NO, at BAL, at CIN, vs. NYG

 

 

 

Photo by Fred Kfoury III, Andy Lewis | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@CarbonFoxGFX on Twitter/X)