Buy and Sell: Week 8

Buy and Sell for Fantasy Football in Week 8

Kyle McCarthy
Trade Talk 4 Weeks Ago

Week 7 of the fantasy football season was the week of the rookies. Chargers rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden II recorded 164 receiving yards, the third-most ever by a rookie tight end in a single game, trailing only Jackie Smith (212 yards in 1963) and Mike Ditka (190 yards in 1961). And Giants rookie QB Jaxson Dart continues to impress with a four-touchdown day against one of the best defenses in football.

Both Gadsden and Dart posted top 10 fantasy performances across all positions in Week 7. In total, eight rookies (Quinshon Judkins, Travis Hunter, Cam Skattebo, Kyle Monangai, Tyler Warren, Chimere Dike) finished inside the top 50 in fantasy scoring for the week, which is pretty cool to see.

Week 7 also featured some dreadful offensive performances, including two of the three worst success rates in any game this season, with the Raiders at 12% (!) against the Chiefs and the Dolphins at 24% against the Browns. The 0-7 Jets joined in on the fun as well, posting the ninth-worst offensive success rate of the season at just 29% against the Panthers.

With Week 8 approaching, let’s laser in on a few key players to buy and sell for your fantasy football lineups.

 

BUY

Oronde Gadsden II (TE – LAC)

TE1: 9 Targets, 7 Receptions, 164 Yards, 1 TD

Gadsden broke out in a massive way in Week 7 against the Colts after hinting at a full-time role at TE in Week 6. He ran a season-high 69.2% of the team’s routes in Week 6, catching seven of eight targets for 68 yards with Quentin Johnston (hamstring) out. That was an encouraging sign, and following it up with a historic performance in Week 7 suggests Gadsden could be something special. There’s no shortage of target competition in Los Angeles for the fifth-rounder from Syracuse, with longtime target hog Keenan Allen, second-year standout Ladd McConkey, and the team’s leader in receiving yards on the season, Quentin Johnston, all vying for looks.

 

It’s worth noting that the game environment against the Colts was somewhat unusual for the Chargers, with Justin Herbert attempting 55 passes, the third most in a single game of his career. Gadsden, however, boasts a strong analytical and athletic profile as a converted college wide receiver. He totaled 975 receiving yards as a 19-year-old WR before switching to TE and recording 934 yards in his final college season. He fits the Darren Waller mold of a dynamic, vertical receiving tight end with strong ball-in-hand ability and has impressed the coaching staff since they drafted him and observed his work over the summer. Gadsden has all the makings of a league-winner and is well worth a heavy investment on the waiver wire this week.

Upcoming schedule: vs. MIN, at TEN, vs. PIT, at JAX, BYE

 

Travis Hunter (WR – JAX)

WR9: 14 Targets, 8 Receptions, 101 Yards, 1 TD

Another rookie who broke onto the scene with easily his best performance as a pro was second overall pick Travis Hunter. Head coach Liam Coen made it clear that Hunter would see more designed targets and first-read looks in Week 7 against the Rams. That claim appeared fraudulent in the first half, with no catches and just three targets in the opening 30 minutes, but Hunter delivered a monster second-half performance. The two-way rookie has finally begun running a full route share on offense, logging more routes than any other player in the league over the past two weeks, with 91.

With Brian Thomas Jr. battling injuries and struggling through a disappointing season, Hunter is poised to be the Jaguars’ No. 1 wide receiver moving forward. Over the past two weeks, he has commanded a higher first-read target rate (27.3%) than Thomas (23.6%), according to Fantasy Points Data Suite. While many of his targets have come underneath, with an 8.5 aDOT, Hunter is starting to earn more volume down the field over the past two weeks, racking up 167 air yards in the past two weeks after totaling 199 over the first five games. Everyone knows about his elite athleticism and rare contested-catch ability. The combination of a safe floor designed underneath targets and the untapped upside of downfield opportunities makes Hunter a screaming buy in fantasy.

Upcoming schedule: BYE, at LV, at HOU, vs. LAC, at ARI

 

Brashard Smith (RB – KC)

RB14: 14 Carries, 39 Yards | 5 Targets, 5 Receptions, 42 Yards

A third rookie joins the Week 8 buy list as Brashard Smith logged his highest snap share and saw his most significant workload of the season in Week 7 against the Raiders. He played 34.6% of the snaps, handled 34.1% of the rush attempts, and ran 22.5% of the routes, all season highs for the seventh-round rookie. While 11 of his 14 carries came in garbage time, all five of his receptions came during the flow of the game. The usage is encouraging and closely mirrors the Jerick McKinnon role that proved so fantasy-friendly in the Kansas City offense a few seasons ago. Smith’s 18.4 expected fantasy points were easily the most of any Chiefs running back in a game this season, with the next closest being Isiah Pacheco, who had 11.6 expected points in Week 6.

It’s important to note that Kareem Hunt suffered what appeared to be a serious injury early in the game. He was eventually able to return, but still logged limited snaps overall. Smith’s role in the offense is unique and will be interesting to see how it trends game to game with star WR Rashee Rice now back in the fold as well. But Andy Reid has made a concerted effort to get the rookie the ball in space, using his explosiveness in the short game as an extension of the run attack. This version of the Chiefs’ offense feels like the fully realized form the team has envisioned since assembling all of their weapons. Smith has legit value moving forward as a flex play with the potential for more if Hunt or Pacheco misses time.

Upcoming schedule: vs. WAS, at BUF, BYE, at DEN, vs. IND

 

SELL

Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)

RB4: 25 Carries, 84 Yards, 3 TDs

Judkins looks great overall as a runner and took advantage of Miami’s abysmal run defense with a massive fantasy day. Part of labeling Judkins as a sell stems from how previous running backs have consistently tormented Miami’s defense. Another key factor is his limited receiving ability in an offense that will likely struggle to move the ball and score points most weeks. Jerome Ford has operated as the primary receiving back and has run more routes than Judkins in all but one game this season. That could certainly change, but it wasn’t a big part of Judkins’ prospect profile as well. Despite scoring 31 points in Week 7, it was mostly driven by Tua Tagoviloa’s complete ineptitude on the other side and gifting Cleveland with excellent field position on multiple occasions. On a down-to-down basis, the Browns were still bad with just a 34% success rate.

To play devil’s advocate, Cleveland does have a favorable runway of opposing defenses, ranking fifth easiest according to RotoViz’s Strength of Schedule Streaming App. Cleveland’s defense is among the league’s best, which should keep them competitive in a lot of games. But the team context plus the lack of upside in the pass game isn’t ideal. If you can sell Judkins for a high-volume WR like Chris Olave or Zay Flowers, that’s a move I’d consider depending on the rest of the roster.

Upcoming schedule: at NE, BYE, at NYJ, vs. BAL, at LV

 

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – JAX)

RB34: 8 Carries, 44 Yards | 3 Targets, 1 Reception, 11 Yards

Etienne has cooled off significantly after a hot start to the season. After averaging 106.5 total yards per game on roughly 17 touches and scoring three touchdowns over the first four games, he has dropped to 56 total yards per game on about 13 touches and hasn’t scored in his last three outings. That decline shows up in the advanced metrics as well, as he posted the fifth-highest explosive run rate (7.7%) over the first four games (minimum 25 carries) but hasn’t recorded a single explosive rush of 15 or more yards in his last three. He was also forcing missed tackles at a solid rate early on, tying for 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.17), but he hasn’t forced a single one in his last three games.

It hasn’t yet resulted in Etienne losing his role as the primary back for Jacksonville, but it’s trending in the wrong direction. His 54.1% snap share in Week 7 was his lowest of the season, with rookie fourth-round pick Bhayshul Tuten recording his highest snap share of the season at 28.4%. Tuten hasn’t been overly impressive on his opportunities, but is a prospect that this new regime intentionally targeted with one of the first selections on day three of the NFL draft. With their bye week hitting in Week 8, it would not be a surprise to see the rookie get a post-bye bump in opportunities.

Upcoming schedule: BYE, at LV, at HOU, vs. LAC, at ARI

 

 

Rome Odunze (WR – CHI)

WR63: 6 Targets, 2 Receptions, 31 Yards

Odunze’s production has dipped since Chicago’s Week 5 bye as the team has shifted toward a more run-heavy approach. It’s a small sample, but the Bears’ pass rate has fallen from 56.5% before the bye to 46.8% after. They were slightly below expectation in their first four games with a -2% Pass Rate Over Expected, which has dropped further to -6% over the past two. It could be somewhat game-dependent, as both matchups were played in rainy conditions and the Bears controlled the game flow against New Orleans. However, Odunze’s usage has dipped since the bye. He averaged over eight targets per game with a 32.1% first-read target rate through Weeks 1–4, but has seen just 11 targets in two games since, with his first-read target rate dropping to 17.9%.

The second-year wideout should still produce solid numbers in an improving offense, but likely not at the WR1 level he showed over the first four games. Meanwhile, rookies Luther Burden and Colston Loveland are both earning more opportunities as their snap shares continue to rise. Burden, in particular, has flashed explosiveness every time he’s touched the ball, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see head coach Ben Johnson find more ways to get him involved in the coming weeks. It’s a quietly crowded offense that may lean more on the run game as second-year quarterback Caleb Williams continues to work through some growing pains.

Upcoming schedule: at BAL, at CIN, vs. NYG, at MIN, vs. PIT

 

 

 

Photo by Fred Kfoury III, Andy Lewis | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@CarbonFoxGFX on Twitter/X)