Buy and Sell: Week 9

Buy and Sell for Fantasy Football in Week 9

Kyle McCarthy
Trade Talk Yesterday

Week 8 of the NFL season was one of the least eventful in recent memory. With six teams on bye, it was a limited slate with 13 games. And 12 out of 13 were double-digit margins of victory. The only close game was likely the least suspecting, with Aaron Glenn and the Jets finding their elusive first win in a thrilling 39-38 shootout against the Joe Flacco-led Bengals.

Perhaps we should have seen something like this coming, as eight of the 13 matchups featured a spread of a touchdown or more. But to see it to this extent was pretty shocking. The injuries to the QB position leaguewide certainly play a big factor.

The scoring environment in today’s NFL is quite interesting with some of the new rule changes. While plays and drives are down league-wide, scoring has climbed to its highest level since the record-breaking 2020 season, and turnovers are at an all-time low. Starting field positioning has never been better because of the new kickoff, and as a result, we are seeing more points scored, but fewer yardage totals. Touchdowns are incredibly important in fantasy football, go figure. With that, let’s get into a few players to buy and sell as we roll into Week 9.

 

BUY

Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF)

WR7: 7 Targets, 6 Receptions, 88 Yards, 1 TD

Shakir broke out in 2024, pacing the Bills in all receiving categories. It was a relatively modest line as the Bills lived by the dreaded “everybody eats” motto, catching 76 of 100 targets for 821 yards and four touchdowns, finishing as WR37 in PPR points per game. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady manufactured a ton of touches and designed screens to get the ball in his hands, an area where he excelled. He had just a 5.5 aDOT, but the 25-year-old earned volume with a 27% targets per route run (TPRR) and established himself as one of the best YAC threats in football, ranking only behind superstars De’Von Achane and Ja’Marr Chase in total YAC last season (597 yards).

Since Week 5, Shakir has started to get back to that form. He had at least six receptions in seven of 15 games last season, and after hitting that mark only once in the first five games this season, he’s done it twice in their last three games. He’s posted a 30% TPRR and 2.41 yards per route run in that time. The 30% TPRR is tied for sixth highest out of 97 WRs (minimum 60 routes), with Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Zay Flowers, while his YPRR is 18th, just behind Justin Jefferson (2.42). His elite YAC ability was on display in Week 8 against the Panthers with a 54-yard catch and run TD on a short catch. His +106 YAC over expectation is second only to D.K. Metcalf, and his 14 missed tackles forced this season are the best in football, ahead of YAC monsters like Chase and Deebo Samuel Sr. Shakir could be ready to rack up receptions here over the second half of the season as the focal point of the Bills’ quick passing attack with Josh Allen.

Upcoming schedule: vs. KC, at MIA, vs. TB, at HOU, at PIT

 

Kimani Vidal (RB – LAC)

RB8: 23 Carries, 117 Yards, 1 TD | 2 Targets, 1 Reception, 10 Yards

Vidal has taken full advantage of rookie Omarion Hampton going on injured reserve. Since becoming the lead back in Week 6, he’s posted the sixth most rushing yards (261), the fifth highest explosive run rate (10%), and the 10th highest yards after contact per attempt out of 31 running backs with at least 25 carries. And there is some real uncertainty as far as Hampton’s status to return when he is first eligible.

Vidal’s usage has mirrored that of an RB1 for fantasy, and his blend of athleticism and an exciting prospect profile helps create the efficiency and upside we want to see. The return of stud tackle Joe Alt, along with the general health of the Chargers’ offensive line in Week 8, was massive and will be important to maintaining some of Vidal’s per-touch effectiveness. Factor in the fifth-easiest strength of schedule for the rest of the season, according to RotoViz’s Strength of Schedule streaming app, and Vidal looks like a strong bet to be an impact player in the second half.

Upcoming schedule: at TEN, vs. PIT, at JAX, BYE, vs. LV

 

Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR)

QB4: 21-for-33, 182 Passing Yards, 5 TDs | 2 Carries, 1 Yard

The Rams have played much more aggressively this season. They are playing at the fourth-fastest pace this season, with a 25.3 seconds per snap, plus Sean McVay is letting Stafford rip it a little more often. Since Week 4, the Rams have a +7% pass rate over expected (PROE) and a 66.1% early down pass rate. Only the Chiefs are higher in that span (66.9%). And funny enough, the QB1 in points per game since Week 4 is Patrick Mahomes (27.5), and Stafford is QB2 (23.4).

The pace and pass rate numbers are notable to point out as they are a distinct change from how McVay has operated since Stafford came to Los Angeles in 2021. Before this season, from 2021 to 2024, the Rams played at the sixth slowest pace (27.1 seconds per snap) and had a positive PROE in a season once in four seasons, +2.7% in their 2021 Super Bowl season. They’ve already had two games with a PROE above 10% this season after not exceeding 5% in a game last season. And they’re airing it out for good reason with two star WRs on the outside in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. That duo has played out as well as you could have imagined, and Stafford peppers both of them with targets. It’s worth noting that this change hasn’t come as a result of them struggling to run the ball. In fact, the Rams are the number one rushing team in football by success rate (47%). The offense is just clicking on all cylinders right now, and Stafford is captaining the ship. I’m buying him as a potential top 10 fantasy QB rest of season.

Upcoming schedule: vs. NO, at SF, vs. SEA, vs. TB, at CAR

 

SELL

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB – NYG)

RB32: 10 Carries, 39 Yards | 3 Targets, 2 Receptions, 14 Yards

Tracy should be the top waiver add this week, and rightfully so. It comes with the unfortunate news of Cam Skattebo going down with a gruesome injury that you never want to see. Tracy undoubtedly gets a big value boost moving forward, but I’d expect him it be more fringe RB2 levels of scoring for fantasy. The 25-year-old had poor peripherals as a runner last season as a rookie, and that’s continued this season, albeit in a limited sample of 45 carries. His 44.3% success rate was bottom 10 out of 46 RBs with at least 100 carries last season.

The former WR at Purdue took over as the starter for an injured Devin Singletary in Week 5 last season and didn’t give it back. From that point forward, Tracy was RB20 in PPR points per game (14.3). He earned a real workhorse role with over 17 opportunities (rushes + targets) per game and scored six total touchdowns on 68.3% of the snaps. The Giants’ offense is more exciting now with rookie Jaxson Dart, but there will be plenty of growing pains. And Singletary played only 16% of the snaps in Week 8 against the Eagles. Tracy should provide a reliable floor, posting eight top 24 RB performances last season, but if you can sell high for a WR2-type player, I’d capitalize on that.

Upcoming schedule: vs. SF, at CHI, vs. GB, at DET, at LV

 

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)

RB4: 1-for-1, 4 Passing Yards, 1 TD | 18 Carries, 133 Yards, 2 TDs| 3 Targets, 2 Reception, 14 Yards

Hall is still one of the most electric runners in the NFL when he is right. He lit up the porous Bengals defense in Week 8, which is the only team to allow over 1,000 rushing yards to opposing running backs so far this season. They are allowing a whopping 28.2 PPR points per game, with the Titans being the next closest at 24.6. Hall has gone over the century mark for rushing yards three times already this season, compared to once all of last year. However, there have also been as many games with inefficient rushing lines and limited activity as a receiver to offset that, resulting in four games with less than 10 PPR points.

The lack of receiving is a direct result of the QBs he plays with. Justin Fields has actually gotten much better at taking his checkdowns, but he still takes sacks and scrambles at one of the highest rates in the league. In addition, the Jets’ rest of season schedule is not too favorable for running backs, ranking fifth-worst according to the RotoViz Strength of Schedule streaming app. A potential trade would obviously throw things for a loop depending on the destination, but if you can sell Hall for a solid WR1 or something similar, it’s worth exploring.

Upcoming schedule: BYE, vs. CLE, at NE, at BAL, vs. ATL

 

 

Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)

WR36: 6 Targets, 4 Receptions, 67 Yards

Sutton and second-year WR Troy Franklin have had similar levels of usage this season, with the latter actually out-targeting him in five out of eight games this season. Additionally, Franklin has finally turned some of his expected fantasy points into actual fantasy points, with 42.9 PPR points over the last three weeks compared to Sutton at 28.1. Franklin has been the only non-Sutton WR to run close to a full route share in every game this season, and with a strong prospect profile, he’s beginning to shine and become a favorite target for Bo Nix, who was also his college QB at Oregon.
It’s unfair to say that Franklin has surpassed Sutton as Denver’s WR1, as Sutton has been as reliable and consistent a fantasy scorer as nearly any WR since the start of last season. The Broncos’ offense looks to be getting into form, but they do feature a good crew of weapons, and in a game where they racked up 44 points against the Cowboys in Week 8, Sutton was only able to accrue 10.7 fantasy points, which is a tad concerning. Now could be an ideal window to cash out on Sutton and target a high-upside RB in return.

Upcoming schedule: at HOU, vs. LV, vs. KC, BYE, at WSH

 

 

 

Photo by Fred Kfoury III, Andy Lewis | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@CarbonFoxGFX on Twitter/X)