It’s November, meaning it’s crunch time in your fantasy football leagues. We’re about six weeks from the fantasy playoffs for most people. It’s time to know if all of our research, best ball drafts, and mocks we did this past summer are going to pay off, unless we continue to grind the waiver wire and trade block. Nothing is decided yet, good or bad, so don’t give up on the season yet, and don’t get too comfortable either. Let’s explore some ways to improve your roster via trade ahead of Week 9.
BUY
Kenneth Walker, Running Back, Kansas City Chiefs
Week 8: 21 carries, 69 yards, 5 targets, 4 receptions, 15 yards
Well, there’s a chance things won’t get any worse for Kenneth Walker after the past two weeks. Facing the Seahawks and Broncos defenses, both on the road, brought Walker back down to earth after a wildly hot start. I’ll acknowledge it’s still likely going to be tough to buy Walker, considering the Walker manager is probably right in the playoff hunt, but if there’s going to be a window to acquire Walker without buying high, it’s now.
After some difficult opponents the last two weeks, the upcoming docket for Walker is not quite as daunting. Walker faces the Jets in Week 9, the 12th-easiest opponent for running backs, according to Fantasy Pros. The next three games, Weeks 10-12, the Chiefs take on the Falcons, Cardinals, and Bills, which is the third-easiest stretch for running backs. After two straight losses for the Chiefs, these next three games are must-wins for Kansas City to stay in the mix for the AFC West title and to contend for a top seed in the playoffs. Without much weaponry for Patrick Mahomes, getting the ball in the hands of their best offensive player should be a focal point over the next month or so when the matchups for Walker are advantageous. The Chiefs also already had their bye week, another small positive when acquiring Walker as the fantasy football regular season hits the stretch run.
Schedule: vs. Jets, @ Falcons, vs. Cardinals, @ Bills, @ Rams
Braelon Allen, Running Back, New York Jets
Week 8: 21 carries, 147 yards, TD, 2 targets, 2 receptions, 6 yards
This isn’t a typical buy-low opportunity that is usually recommended, but acquiring Braelon Allen is buying very high. I prefer to find players who we can acquire at a potentially reduced cost, but I don’t think we should overlook the possible impact of the trade deadline coming up on November 10th. This is the last Buy and Sell article before the NFL trade deadline, and I wanted to include at least one player that could get a boost from a move at the deadline. The Jets are 2-6 and should be sellers. What’s the point of them having Breece Hall on this roster? They have a workhorse RB1 in Allen on a cheap rookie contract. Sending Hall to a contender and making Allen their solidified top running back in another lost season makes the most sense. If that’s the case and you’ve acquired Allen, you now have a player who was involved in a frustrating split backfield who is now the unquestioned bell-cow running back.
The Jets’ record is bad, but their offense is much more competent than in past years. Between Garrett Wilson, AD Mitchell, Omar Cooper Jr., and Kenyon Sadiq, quarterback Geno Smith has some real weapons. They have the ability to put up points, which is the type of offense I want to be buying into. A team strong at wide receiver is probably the most logical team to buy high on Allen. Jameson Williams for Braelon Allen, a trade that recently happened based on the Yahoo trade value site, is a perfect example of a trade I’d be willing to shake hands on. If you went heavy at WR in your draft and can flip your third or fourth receiver for Allen, pull the trigger and take the chance that Hall gets traded, giving you a clear-cut RB1 the rest of the way along with the rest of your solid receiving corps.
Schedule: @ Chiefs, vs. Bills, @ Chargers, @ Dolphins, BYE
SELL
Blake Corum, Running Back, Los Angeles Rams
Week 8: 11 carries 73 yards, 1 TD, 1 target
Blake Corum has had a nice past two weeks, scoring 17.1 and 13.3 PPR points respectively, and finding the end zone in each contest. However, Kyren Williams has actually outsnapped Corum 169 to 83 over the past month, while Corum has outscored Williams in PPR points per game 15.2 vs 15.1, according to JJ Zachariason of lateound.com. Outscoring Williams in PPR points per game during the past four weeks, while playing 86 fewer snaps, makes Corum’s recent success a possible fluke. Zacharison noted that Corum has also scored 5.6 points per game over expectation throughout the past month, based on the Late Round expected points model.
Maybe even more of a reason to sell Corum now is his participation in the offense when the Rams are losing. According to Zacharison, Williams has played 80% of the snaps when the Rams are trailing by a touchdown or more, while Corum sees just an 11% snap share. Corum’s snap share jumps to 38% when the Rams find themselves in the lead by a touchdown or more. The Rams still have upcoming matchups with the Packers, Chiefs, 49ers, and Seahawks. Based on those opponents, it seems more likely the backfield snap share moves in favor of Kyren Williams, at least in those games, as the Rams leading by a touchdown or more may be hard to come by. Corum has been a productive RB2 or FLEX option lately, but based on his usage and expected points, selling Corum now before regression hits should be a strong consideration.
Schedule: @ Commanders, vs. Cardinals, BYE, vs. Packers, vs. Chiefs
Rashee Rice, Wide Receiver, Kansas City Chiefs
Week 8: 8 targets, 7 receptions, 53 yards, TD
While the Chiefs star running back is a buy this week, their top receiver is a sell. Rashee Rice returned in Week 8 from a hamstring injury and put up 18.3 PPR points, a nice boost to their lineups for Rice managers who had been without him. Still, this week may be a good time to sell Rice coming off a strong performance. According to Ryan Heath and Graham Barfield of fantasypoints.com, Rice is scoring 14.1 fantasy points per game on just 11.4 expected fantasy points per game, which Heath and Barfield note is a sizable margin. The four-year veteran is also just WR31 in expected fantasy points per route run, according to Heath and Barfield, a discouraging metric. Rice does appear to have recovered from the hamstring injury, but he’s also only played one game since he suffered the aforementioned ailment. Hamstrings are notoriously tricky injuries to deal with throughout the season (just look at DeVonta Smith), so Rice does carry a fairly significant re-injury risk.
If the receiver position is one of your strengths and you’re a legitimate playoff contender even with Rice missing the past couple of games, you’re the perfect candidate to sell Rice to a WR-needy team and bolster another position, all without sacrificing your edge at the WR spot. Rice may roast the Jets this week, but overall the concerns regarding the under-the-hood usage are legitimate enough to ship Rice out if it makes sense for your team.
Schedule: vs Jets, @ Falcons, vs Cardinals, @ Bills, @ Rams
Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire | Featured image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)