With the NFL’s trade deadline behind us, we no longer have to question whether a player may have their team bring in competition for snaps, rushes, or targets. There were a few trades at fantasy-relevant positions that took place just before the deadline: Mike Williams to Pittsburgh, Jonathon Mingo to Dallas, and Khalil Herbert to Cincinnati. Just like the NFL, your fantasy league’s trade deadline may be quickly approaching. We should have a sense of the players we know we can rely upon, but there are still some who are underperforming and overperforming. This week’s edition of buy/sell features three running backs to buy-low and three receivers to sell-high.
BUY
Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA)
Last season’s RB5 in PPR is currently RB50, partially attributed to missing three games early in the season and Miami already having their bye week behind them. De’Von Achane has been lighting it up, correlating strongly with the return of Tua Tagovailoa. Mostert’s trade value is as low as can be as he’s averaging just 8.7 fantasy points per game and has only scored two touchdowns in his five games played, both during the same game. All the attention on this team is focused on Tua, Achane, and Tyreek Hill.
What’s being overlooked around this offense is not how Tua has revitalized the passing game but how Miami has figured things out on the ground. It’s known that the Dolphins’ offense leans heavily into throwing short screens and then trying to beat the defense over the top with Tyreek – on the season, they’ve only run the ball on 47% of their plays. But with the return of Tua, that percentage is up to 50% over the last three games, and 52% of their plays were kept on the ground last week against Buffalo. That’s the 8th highest rate of running plays over the past three weeks behind the known run-heavy teams: PHI, WAS, PIT, DET, SF, ARI, and BAL.
The Dolphins have also been more efficient on the ground upon Tua’s return because defenses can no longer pack the box and dare Tyler Huntley to throw the ball. Last week, Mostert’s 5.6 yards/carry was his most efficient game of the season. Achane may be more explosive in the middle of the field, but Mostert also has a well-defined role as the goal-line back. Despite the missed time, he has over twice as many carries inside the 20 as the next Dolphin (9 carries compared to Jaylen Wright’s 4, which came while Mostert was inactive). This red zone usage is what led him to a successful fantasy season last year with 18 touchdowns, regardless of Achane’s workload. We never hope for anyone to suffer injuries, but the path to a bigger role can be considered in the event of injuries around them. Mostert’s ceiling would take a significant jump should Achane miss any time. As this offense returns to reaching its high-scoring potential, this is a cheap RB2 you should be able to acquire for pennies on the dollar. Upcoming schedule: LAR, LV, NE, GB, NYJ.
Chase Brown (RB – CIN)
After duking it out in a timeshare with Zack Moss through most of this season, Chase Brown got a game under his belt as a bell-cow following Moss’s unfortunate injury. He made good use of it, too, going for 120 yards on the ground plus another 37 yards on 5 receptions. This stint as the lone rusher in Cincinnati seems to be short-lived, though, as the Bengals just acquired Khalil Herbert in a trade with Chicago. But even coming off the big week, he’s RB20 in points per game since Week 6.
It was evident that Brown was slowly taking over the role of the clear lead RB. Brown’s rush share through the first 8 weeks was as follows: 25%, 25%, 37%, 50%, 80%, 77%, 83%, 80%. Khalil Herbert hadn’t earned a touch in Chicago since Week 3, and he was a healthy scratch this past weekend. He was simply the odd man out behind D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson, so Herbert poses no threats to Brown’s role and production.
This past week against the Raiders could have been nuclear if he found the endzone, but Joe Burrow threw for all 5 of the Bengals touchdowns. I included Burrow as a “Buy” in last week’s edition of this article, not only because of his talent but also because of the position the Bengals are in. At 4-5 and in a competitive division, they will need to string together some wins to have a chance at playoffs and will lean on their key players to do so. This isn’t the most efficient running team in the league, but it’s prudent to follow the volume on a high-scoring offense that seems to have shaken off the rust from the first few weeks. Upcoming schedule: BAL, CLE, BYE, PIT, DAL.
David Montgomery (RB – DET)
Monty is currently the RB16 in PPR, though he’s coming off three straight weeks of less than 15 fantasy points. Since Week 6, he’s been the RB27 on a points-per-game basis at 12.1 PPG. Last week, he had 17 carries for 73 yards but without a touchdown, and he was only given 9 carries in each of the two weeks prior. Owners of Montgomery may be stubborn to hold onto him, but if there’s ever a time to get him while his value is cheapest, now is that time.
As previously mentioned in Mostert’s buying points, Detroit comes into Week 10 running the ball at the 4th highest rate in the league. Even in a timeshare with Jahmir Gibbs, Montgomery has averaged close to 16 PPG, and he had 3 weeks as a top-12 RB in his first five games. He’s averaging 4.4 yards per carry against the 8th highest rate of 8+ defenders in the box (among RBs with 45+ carries). He also already has 7 touchdowns on the year, which is tied for 3rd most among RBs
Detroit has scored the 5th most points in the league on the back of the second-most rushing touchdowns (14). Even with Gibbs around, this is a huge pie to have a piece of. It’s been a near 50/50 split between the two backs, but Montgomery would become a top 5 RB should Gibbs miss any time. He’s a borderline RB1 that you may be able to get for RB2 value. Upcoming schedule: HOU, JAX, IND, CHI, GB.
SELL
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)
Zay is coming off his best week of the season, putting up 127 yards and two touchdowns for 29.7 fantasy points in PPR. Averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game, he’s currently WR9 and appears to be a key piece of a high-scoring Ravens offense.
With all the moves being made around the trade deadline, the dust has settled regarding Baltimore bringing in Diontae Johnson. Zay’s huge performance came when Diontae wasn’t playing, likely due to him still learning the new playbook. While I don’t expect Dionte to necessarily jump into a huge role in this offense, he’ll still take some targets away from Flowers. Also becoming a bigger factor in this team’s aerial attack is Mark Andrews, who has slowly acquired 18 targets over the last 5 weeks compared to his 6 targets during the first 4 weeks. Andrews’ 3.6 targets per game doesn’t sound like a lot, but the Ravens throw the ball at the 3rd lowest rate in the NFL.
Zay’s current top 10 standing is on the back of 5 weeks (out of 9), where he scored over 18 fantasy points. His floor is still near zero because he had three games with 4, 2, and 1 targets, resulting in 5.3, 2.0, and 4.0 fantasy points. This was before bringing in another viable receiving option. The Ravens don’t throw the ball enough for Zay to afford to lose target share. There may be a handful of big weeks ahead for Zay, but it’s more likely that his already inconsistent production will become less reliable – time to sell him while his value is at its peak. Upcoming schedule: CIN, PIT, LAC, PHI, BYE.
Cedric Tillman (WR – CLE)
This second-year wideout exploded onto the scenes following the departure of Amari Cooper and the QB change of Jameis Winston taking over for the injured Deshawn Watson. His 56 fantasy points over the last three weeks are the most of any wide receiver in the league, with all three games being over 18 points. It’s been a combined 32 targets for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns for who was likely a waiver pickup in most leagues.
While he leads the last 3 weeks in fantasy points, his reception rate is just 66%, which is 68th among WRs in this span. We may love the personality of Jameis, but his QBR is a mere 83.4 (26th among QBs with 68+ passing attempts). Volume has been Tillman’s best friend, and the TDs have been hitting against pass funnel teams like Cincinnati and Baltimore, but the Browns are still only 27th in points scored, 24th in passing yards across the league, and face some of the best defenses in the league throughout the remainder of their season. You may not be able to sell Tillman right away with the Cleveland on bye this week, but it’s been an outlandish pace he’s set that will take a skid with the difficult schedule ahead. Upcoming schedule: BYE, PIT, DEN, PIT, KC.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)
Just like Zay Flowers, JSN is coming off his biggest week of the season. It was an awesome game from the second-year receiver: 37 points in PPR from 7 receptions for 180 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s currently the WR14 and averaging just over 14 fantasy PPG.
He’s a talented receiver on a pass-heavy team, but two main problems prevent JSN from being a reliable fantasy asset: consistency and target share. His season standing and averages are skewed by two huge weeks that he finished as a top 10 receiver, but he finished outside WR30 in the seven other weeks. In three of those seven games, he produced less than 7 fantasy points, and all three came when D.K. Metcalf was healthy. He seems to have separated himself as Geno Smith’s preferred target over Tyler Lockett the last two weeks without D.K., but the team is optimistic Metcalf will return in Week 11 following their bye.
In the first seven weeks, with all three receivers healthy, JSN had the most receptions only twice but only by 1 and 2 receptions more than D.K., and yet he finished with fewer yards than DK both of those times (65 yards combined). There are more consistent FLEX-to-WR2 level players out there, so it’s best to cash out after the big week. Upcoming schedule: BYE, SF, ARI, NYJ, ARI.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Feature Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)