Thursday night’s matchup between the Ravens and Bengals was what we had hoped for – but the same can’t be said for many of the remaining games, as Week 10 was one of the lowest-scoring weeks of the season. Nonetheless, we are approaching the home stretch of the regular season for fantasy, and you may be approaching your league’s trade deadline. Even if you’re someone who doesn’t like to make a lot of changes to your team, you should evaluate your position and how you expect your players to perform down the stretch. Hopefully, you’re a playoff contender and looking to set yourself up to win those playoff matches! Maybe you’re in a competitive position and need to scrape together a few more wins to earn that playoff spot – whatever the case may be, there are always ways to improve your chances than simply moving players between your bench and starting lineup. This week’s edition of Buy & Sell highlights three WRs to buy low and three RBs to sell high!
BUY
CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
That’s right – CeeDee is a buy, not a sell. With the Cowboys’ offense sputtering through most of the season and now Dak Prescott landing on IR, Lamb owners might be panicking that their top-end draft pick is burnt toast. His 8.4 fantasy points on only 21 receiving yards this past week is his lowest output of the season, which some would think correlates with the first week having Cooper Rush behind center. The reigning WR1 from last season’s perceived value is as low as can be.
We’re all aware of the sun blinding Lamb from a potential touchdown, which, if he had seen the ball and made the grab, would have landed him with around 16 fantasy points. This also would have come against the Eagles, whose defense should stop being seen as the Swiss cheese it was last season and start being recognized as a top-end unit this year. Here are the PPR fantasy outputs from some of the top WRs when facing the Eagles:
- TB, Chris Godwin = 12.9 points
- CLE, Amari Cooper = 8.2 points
- NYG, Malik Nabers = 8.1 points
- JAX, Brian Thomas Jr. = 6.2 points
- DAL, Ceedee Lamb = 8.4 points
When Cooper Rush was at the helm between Weeks 2-6 in 2022, Lamb’s fantasy points in PPR were as follows: 15.1, 22.7, 21.7, 10.3, 12.7. He averaged 9.8 targets per game during that stretch, which aligns with the 10 targets he saw this past week. Backup QBs tend to lean on their go-to guys, and we’re all well aware of the skillset and abilities of the current WR5. All of the noise around the Cowboys losing, Jerry Jones’s interesting press conferences, and now an underperformance has depressed CeeDee’s value well below where it should be. Dallas’s rushing efficiency is among the worst in the league, and Mike McCarthy will be pressed to get some more wins under his belt to secure his future – so expect this offense to be throwing the ball, even with their backup QB.
Will Lamb be a top 5 WR for the rest of the season? Maybe, maybe not. But that’s not the price you’ll have to pay to acquire him. With the volume he’ll be expected to see, he should be seen as the safest WR2 with a massive upside you can get. His remaining matchups aren’t anything to shy away from, either. Upcoming schedule: HOU, WAS, NYG, CIN, CAR.
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)
After starting the season red-hot, Nabers hasn’t been able to place higher than WR24 in any of his last four games since suffering a concussion in Week 4. Despite the 42 targets over these past 4 weeks, he only has 26 receptions and is averaging a far from stellar 5.3 yards/target. He also hasn’t found the endzone since Week 3. The Giants just lost in Germany to the worst defense in the league, so managers may be looking to offload this rookie for a more reliable asset.
There must be something to it when your thoughts align with our lead analyst, Marco Enriquez, who has buying Nabers as his first Move to Make for Week 11. Marco’s buying points are the best signs to follow: target share and upcoming matchups. Add onto Macro’s point that Nabers has yet to post a game below a 29% target share, Nabers is accounting for an astounding 41% of the Giants’ targeted air yards. This ranks 6th among all pass catchers, behind only Calvin Ridley, George Pickens, Terry McLaurin, Justin Jefferson, and Tyreek Hill – pretty good company.
We can’t deny the situation is less than ideal with New York losing their LT, Andrew Thomas, and having a liability at QB with Daniel Jones or potentially even Drew Lock. But time and time again, the talent bubbles to the top regardless of whether the player’s team is winning. Last season, D.J. Moore was WR6 in Chicago, and Davante Adams was WR10 in Las Vegas. Despite missing two weeks, Nabers still has the 2nd most targets and 3rd most receptions of pass catchers in the league. That volume and his talent are about to be combined with one of the easiest schedules for pass catchers. Upcoming schedule: BYE, TB, DAL, NO, BAL.
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAX)
It’s tough to follow those two superstars, but a hidden gem is another LSU rookie wideout. Similar to Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr. started the season on fire but has since cooled off by putting up back-to-back weeks as the WR59 and WR75. He’s only seen 11 targets over the last three weeks to amount to 7 receptions for 94 yards. His saving grace was a touchdown against Green Bay in Week 8, but there are more parallels to Nabers’ situation. The starting QB is in question as Trevor Lawrence is expected to miss time with a shoulder injury, and the team has been one of the least efficient scoring offenses in the league. Christian Kirk was placed on IR with a broken collarbone, so BTJ managers were likely hoping to see a spike in his target share, to no avail.
From Weeks 1-7, BTJ was the WR7 but unfortunately suffered a chest injury that nearly sidelined him for Week 9’s contest against the Eagles. The skid over the last two weeks can be attributed to some difficult matchups, first on the road in Philadelphia and then at home against Minnesota with Mac Jones’ first start. Despite the recent skid, BTJ still has the 11th most receiving yards among pass catchers in the league. He has yet to see a game below a 26.7% target share among the team’s WRs, so he remains, at minimum, the team’s 2nd option even with Evan Engram’s increased target share. Between these two, BTJ has accounted for 25.6% of the team’s targeted air yards compared to Engram’s 9.5% targeted air yards.
Acquiring BTJ is a long-term play, with another difficult matchup against Detroit followed by the BYE week. The matchups to follow are much more favorable, especially during fantasy playoffs, where Jacksonville plays the Raiders, Titans, and Colts to close out the season. You may be able to get away with waiting a week to make your move on him if this isn’t the last week for trading in your league, but you run the risk of him bouncing back with a good game this week (albeit unlikely, but possible). Upcoming schedule: DET, BYE, HOU, TEN, NYJ.
SELL
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR)
Hubbard is the RB6 on the season and may have been the steal of the draft for his returns on investment. He’s averaging just over 16 fantasy points per game in PPR, as he’s been handling 79% of the carries out of Carolina’s backfield. Hubbard was RB2 on the week as he put up close to 25 points from a 153-yard stampede with a touchdown against the Giants. He also just got a nice contract extension, well deserved for how great he’s been for this struggling Panthers team.
I included Hubbard as a Sell in the Week 6 edition of this article, admittedly somewhat prematurely, as he’s been performing well since that point in the season. The selling point remains the same, though: the Panthers are a low-scoring offense that Hubbard has a large share of for the time being before Jonathon Brooks makes his debut. Volume has been the key to Chuba’s success, as this past week’s 28 carries was the most he’s seen all season and thus follows his highest rushing yard performance (playing against the Giants’ poor run D in Germany helps some, too).
Hubbard has seen the 5th most carries of any RB this season. Even as the team is often playing from behind and needs to rely on the passing attack later in games, Chuba is 9th in targets to RBs. It’s worth noting that most of his passing work came earlier in the season, as his 11 targets from Weeks 7-11 are 18th among RBs. The amount of volume that Brooks will take away is unknown, but it will be more than zero. Chuba has been awesome, but his value is at its peak. Try to sell the RB6 for a more reliable “low-end RB1 to high-end RB2” such as Chase Brown (RB13), David Montgomery (RB14), Kenneth Walker (RB17), or Josh Jacobs (RB19). Upcoming schedule: BYE, KC, TB, PHI, DAL.
Kareem Hunt (RB – KC)
The 29-year-old vet was signed to the Chiefs, and he immediately took over the backfield and became a waiver winner. Hunt is the RB8 since Week 5, as he’s yet to post a game below 13.3 fantasy points since then. He’s coming off a week as the RB9 where he had his season high in targets (10), receptions (7) and receiving yards (65). Similar to Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, and James Conner, who are all top 10 RBs, maybe we need to stop fearing an age cliff for RBs 29 and older.
I had slated Hunt as a sell this week in hopes of beating the eventual news, but alas, today, it was announced that the team is expecting to designate Isiah Pacheco to return from IR this week. Unlike Brooks potentially taking a small share of what should remain Hubbard’s backfield, we should expect that once Pacheco is good to go, Pacheco will take over the majority of the work. Even though Hunt’s produced well in fantasy, he’s yet to post a game above a 65% snap share. Pacheco saw 80% of snaps in Week 1, then 66% in Week 2 when he left the game early with his injury.
With Pacheco’s news being announced today, the trade value of Hunt takes a minor hit. With that said, Pacheco isn’t expected to play for another few weeks at minimum, so Hunt owners can look for teams that are on the bubble of making fantasy playoffs and need a reliable RB2 to help get them over the line. If you own Hunt, you likely got him off waivers. I would recommend selling him depth at WR, potentially a player that has a favorable schedule in Weeks 15-18, to potentially turn your waiver pickup into a playoff matchup-winning flex option. Upcoming schedule: BUF, CAR, LV, LAC, CLE.
James Cook (RB – BUF)
The RB11 in PPR is averaging over 16.5 points per game and has placed as the RB12 or higher in 5 of the 9 games he played. Cook is the clear RB1 on the Bills by commanding 61% of the rushes from RBs, and the team is currently the 2nd highest-scoring team in the league with an 8-2 record.
The reasons to sell: inconsistency, a difficult upcoming schedule with a bye, and Josh Allen. The four games that Cook didn’t finish as a top-12 RB were all outside of a top-23 finish. His usage is erratic, with four games having 17-20 carries and the remaining five between 9-12 carries. On the season, the Bills run the ball at the 11th-highest rate at 47% of their offensive plays. Over the last three games, they’ve run the ball at only the 21st-highest rate, dropping down to 42% of their plays. The reason: they’ve been in closer games and have to rely on passing the ball. The Bills struggled to a 30-20 win over the Colts last week and squeezed out a 30-27 win against the Dolphins on a walk-off 61-yard field goal the week before. When the Bills are in competitive games, they lean on Josh Allen (and who wouldn’t). The problem is Cook isn’t heavily involved in the passing game, as he only has two games with more than 4 receptions or more than 30 receiving yards and only 1 receiving touchdown on the season. Cook ranks 29th in targets to RBs and 39th in yards per completion.
The upcoming schedule is brutal for any RB, let alone for one where opportunities are expected to be taken away. This offense may have lost Dalton Kincaid for this week but may be getting Amari Cooper back. Cook was a decent draft pick for his ADP and may have won you a few weeks throughout the season, but the signs point toward him stalling out down the stretch. Upcoming schedule: KC, BYE, SF, LAR, DET.
Photos by All-Pro Reels/Flickr and John Byrum/Icon Sportswire | Feature Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Bsky/Twitter)