Week 1 is in the books! While it’s important to avoid overreacting to box scores, we have our first set of data to dissect each player’s role within their team and can try to set our expectations for how the season will progress. More attention is spent on Week 1 than any other week in attempts to make season-long predictions. If these same games and outcomes occurred midway through the regular season, fantasy managers wouldn’t be as reactionary to their player’s performances. There are players every season who boom in the first week or two but fizzle out; and conversely, there are players who are slow out the gates but have league-winning production through the end of the season.
BUY
Michael Pittman (WR – IND)
WR58: 8 Targets, 4 Receptions, 31 Yards
No one doubts Pittman is the clear #1 target in this Colts receiving room. While Anthony Richardson’s accuracy may be a minor concern, keep in mind that he started in only 13 games in college before his 4 games last season – he’s 22 years old and will continue improving as the season progresses. During this week’s game against the Texans, time of possession limited this offense’s opportunities (HOU: 40 min, IND: 20 min) resulting in only 43 plays for the Colts compared to Houston’s 76 plays. Richardson threw the ball 19 times, the least of any starting quarterback this week.
Pittman led the team in targets with 8 (42% target share) while the other receivers (Mitchell, Pierce, Dulin) were targeted with homerun deep balls, making the rest of this receiving corps boom/bust candidates. Pittman will remain the reliable go-to for Richardson with many more opportunities to come, which is bound to yield more receptions and touchdown opportunities. Upcoming schedule: GB, CHI, PIT, JAX, TEN.
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)
TE28: 2 Targets, 2 Receptions, 14 Yards
With all the hype around Isaiah Likely’s success and the disappointment from Andrews’ lack of production, Andrews’ owners may panic and try to find a replacement. Context is always the most important factor. Kansas City schematically removed Andrews from the game and Likely benefitted from check-downs (aside from the admittedly incredible TD). This game did not signal that Likely is replacing Andrews. Baltimore used 12-personnel as their base offense with both TEs on the field, and yet Andrews outpaced Likely in both snaps played (76% vs 66%) and routes run (38 vs 35). Most of Andrews’ routes were run downfield, resulting in bracket coverage from the linebackers and safeties.
This is a common theme for the Chiefs to key in on Andrews, with his five career games against the Chiefs totaling only 13 catches for 108 yards and 0 TDs (his best game was in 2021, 5 catches for 57 yards). Given the injury that sidelined him for half the games last season and the speculations that he may still be shaking off some discomfort from the car accident, it seems to be forgotten that Andrews was on pace to be the TE1 last season. If Likely were a slot receiver with the same stat line, it would be clearer that this game was nothing more than an unfavorable matchup. Upcoming schedule: LV, DAL, BUF, CIN, WAS.
Andy Holloway on X: “Need more evidence? They have a plan vs. the Ravens (and it keeps working)
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI)
RB44: 10 Attempts, 30 Yards | 1 Target, 0 Receptions
I won’t lie, it was painful typing that stat line. For those who were also unfortunate to have watched this game, the Bears’ offense was a total disaster from top to bottom with only 148 total yards and going 2-13 on third downs. With all that said, Swift was the clear lead back for the Bears by being on the field for 70% of their snaps, a 62.5% rush share from the RBs, and 20 routes run. Caleb Williams went 14/29 as he struggled to connect with his receivers down the field.
With Rome Odunze’s health in question, defenses can be expected to key in on receivers DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. I expect the coaching staff to try to manage the pressure that’s been put on Caleb’s shoulders and encourage him to find his outlets more often, increasing Swift’s target share. Despite the limited touches this first week, Swift passed the eye test and broke off an explosive 20-yard run. This Chicago offense is still working out the kinks but can only go uphill from here, and Swift will cost you next to nothing for what should be at least Flex if not RB2-level production. Upcoming schedule: HOU, IND, LAR, CAR, JAX.
SELL
Stefon Diggs (WR – HOU)
WR9: 6 Targets, 6 Receptions, 33 Yards, 2 TDs | 1 Attempt, 6 Yards
One of the biggest headline trades of the offseason was the Texans bringing in Stefon Diggs. There was (and still is) a lot of uncertainty surrounding Diggs’ role on this offense among fellow receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell, and we can’t forget Joe Mixon replacing Devin Singletary in the backfield. Focusing on the receiver room, Diggs’ six targets were slightly outpaced by Dell (7) and Collins (8), but, more importantly, his average Air Yards per Target was a mere 1.6 AY/T compared to Dell and Collins averaging 16.1 and 15.8 AY/T respectively. Tank Dell was on the field the least of the three for only 51 snaps compared to Collins and Diggs with 64 and 62 snaps respectively; however, Dell had the highest rate of routes run per snap: 67% vs. 56% (Diggs) and 52% (Collins).
The story behind the stats actually comes back to Mixon, who was given 30 carries in his debut. The Texans focused on the run game but brought all three receivers on the field when electing to pass. Each receiver saw 6-8 targets, so there wasn’t really a clear #1 target established. Diggs’ production was almost entirely attributed to finding the end zone twice but was more opportunistic than a sign of reliability. Collins and Dell each saw red zone targets that simply failed to connect. This week only reaffirmed that this is a crowded room and the big games will likely rotate between the three receivers, so I would opt to sell Diggs for a more reliable WR1 while he’s being viewed as such. Upcoming schedule: CHI, MIN, JAX, BUF, NE.
Derrick Henry (RB – BAL)
RB31: 13 Attempts, 46 Yards, 1 TD | 2 Targets, 0 Receptions
“The King” was brought to a run-heavy Baltimore Ravens squad – how could this not work? Well, that question was answered with the season opener …and also by John Harbaugh on Monday. Not only did the head coach admit that Henry wasn’t brought in to be a bell cow, but we saw it on the field. Lamar Jackson was the team’s leading rusher with 16 carries for 122 yards. Henry averaged only 3.5 yards/carry, less than half that of Lamar’s 7.6 yards/carry. Henry was also on the field less than Justice Hill, who saw 43 snaps with 8 targets compared to Henry’s 37 snaps and 2 targets.
Sure, the Chiefs pose as a tough matchup, but Henry’s role couldn’t have been clearer: replacing Gus Edwards as a bruiser to come in for short-yardage gains and goalline work. Touchdowns are important in fantasy, but even with 13 TDs last season (3rd most behind Raheem Mostert & Christian McCaffrey), Edwards finished as the RB25 due to the limited rush share and lack of support to the passing game. While RB31 on the week isn’t the best selling point, there’s still value in Henry’s name and the fact he scored should help negotiations. Upcoming schedule: LV, DAL, BUF, CIN, WAS.
John Harbaugh on Derrick Henry and the run game:
"We rushed for 185 yards overall, and a lot of that is Lamar, but that's the formula. The formula is all the guys together — it's not just the one guy.
"We didn't bring Derrick [Henry] to be the guy that gets the ball 30 times… pic.twitter.com/GqsBxdw7tj
— Sarah Ellison (@sgellison) September 9, 2024
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)
RB11: 14 Attempts, 94 Yards, 1 TD | 2 Targets, 2 Receptions
Jones was one of the most underutilized weapons in the league throughout his time as a Packer as he put up 5 straight RB1-level seasons while being limited in a split backfield. It was expected that he would finally get his chance to see higher volume in Minnesota – but that does not appear to be the case. Jones was on the field for 55% of the snaps as he alternated reps with Ty Chandler. The two backs had fairly similar roles and were nearly identical in rush attempts per snap, routes run per snap, and targets. Jones looked like the same back he was in Green Bay despite missing six games last season; however, his production came off the back of some truly horrendous defense by the Giants.
Minnesota’s schedule is about to get a lot harder, so the Vikings could be less efficient on the ground and lean more on Justin Jefferson. Jones finished as an RB1 this week, but some RBs that he outperformed include Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Isiah Pacheco, Kyren Williams, James Cook, Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, and Jonathon Taylor. While I wouldn’t expect to be able to acquire almost any of those RBs in a direct trade with Jones, now is the time to capitalize on his high-finishing week. Upcoming schedule: SF, HOU, GB, NYJ, BYE, DET.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Feature Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)