Buy & Sell: Week 2

Buy and Sell player recommendations following Week 1.

Kyle McCarthy
Trade Talk 4 Weeks Ago

Week 1 always brings a variety of surprises, some good and some bad. We just got a ton of data points for the fantasy season, even though it is just one week. The challenge in fantasy football is not to overreact to all the action, but also not to totally wave it away.

We remember Isaiah Likely as the player everyone rushed to pick up after Week 1 last year, only to not become a real impact starter the rest of the way. And of course, Puka Nacua in 2023 is the one that everyone will be searching for. Unfortunately, there likely is no Puka Nacua this year. But we can take a look at a handful of players and evaluate which direction they’re trending after Week 1.

 

 

BUY

Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)

QB5: 25-for-34, 318 Passing Yards, 3 TDs | 7 Attempts, 32 Rushing Yards

Herbert torched the Chiefs in Brazil on Friday night, totaling 350 yards with three touchdowns. The Chargers’ franchise quarterback sliced and diced Steve Spagnuolo’s defense with a 62.8% passing success rate, best in the league through Week 1. One of the most important elements to pay attention to with Herbert and the Chargers is their pass volume. Head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have always leaned into the run, but Herbert is not Colin Kaepernick.

The Chargers finished bottom 10 in pass rate overall last season, but they trended more towards the pass in the second half of the year. It’s forgotten by some that Herbert was dealing with plantar fasciitis going into the season and had an ankle sprain during the season, limiting his mobility and forcing them to rely more on their running backs. As Herbert got healthier, they trusted their stud quarterback and were second-highest only behind the Bengals in early down pass rate after their bye week in Week 5, per RBDM.com.  That has continued into 2025 as the Chargers had the highest PROE of any team at +15.2%, per NFLElo.

Another factor with Herbert that has seemingly been unlocked with this coaching staff is using his ability as a runner and scrambler. Herbert is a great athlete at 6’6″, 236 pounds, and he and Roman have been adamant this offseason about how he wants to run more and that there will be more designed quarterback runs.

Week 1’s game with the Chargers marked the 10th time in Herbert’s career that he’s had more than five carries in a game, with four of those coming in the last two seasons. In addition, the receiving core, with a certified dude in Ladd McConkey, is in as good of shape as it has been in his time in the NFL. With the Chargers expected to maintain a high pass rate and Herbert showing more willingness to run, he’s positioned to smash his QB15 ADP and potentially return closer to the form of his first two seasons, when he finished as QB9 and QB2 overall. Upcoming schedule: at LV, vs. DEN, at NYG, vs. WAS, at MIA

 

TreVeyon Henderson (RB – NE)

RB25: 5 Attempts, 27 Rushing Yards | 6 Targets, 6 Receptions, 24 Receiving Yards

It was a solid yet unspectacular debut for TreVeyon Henderson, finishing with 11.1 PPR points. He trailed Rhamondre Stevenson in snap share, with Stevenson at 63.4% compared to Henderson’s 32.4%. On a positive note for the rookie, Stevenson was totally ineffective with his touches, finishing with seven carries for 15 yards.

The Patriots’ offense as a whole struggled to move the ball, but when they were searching for answers, it felt like they went to their explosive 2nd round pick in the pass game often. You would like to see more than five rush attempts here in the future, but the usage was really exciting for his first career game. Eventually, he will work his way into a larger role as the season goes on. The New England passing attack has a dearth of viable weapons and will struggle at times this year. However, it’s very bullish to see six targets out of the gate for Henderson, and he could be among the leaders in targets at his position. Upcoming schedule: at MIA, vs. PIT, vs. CAR, at BUF, at NO

 

Elic Ayomanor (WR – TEN)

WR87: 7 Targets, 2 Receptions, 13 Receiving Yards

Ayomanor earned the No.2 starting wide receiver role opposite Calvin Ridley to open the season. That alone makes him worth monitoring as a fourth-round rookie, and seeing seven targets in his debut is an encouraging sign against the Broncos. He earned volume downfield with the most unrealized air yards (120) and was top 10 among all wide receivers in first-read target share (36.8%), per Fantasy Points Data.

The results were clearly not there, as the Titans were unable to sustain any drives against the vaunted Denver defense, with a league-low 22.8% offensive success rate. The next closest team is the Texans at 36.5%. As Cam Ward gets more comfortable and faces easier defenses, the opportunities should be there for Ayomanor. He had an intriguing prospect profile at Stanford with ideal height, weight, and speed measurables, and was projected as a day 2 pick by many scouts. He may not be picked up off the wire this week because of the lack of stats, but now is a good time to stash him. Upcoming schedule: vs. LAR, vs. IND, at HOU, at ARI, at LV

 

SELL

Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)

TE4: 4 Targets, 4 Receptions, 48 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

Kincaid found the end zone early in 2025 after scoring only two touchdowns in all of 2024. In a 41-40 thriller against the Ravens, Josh Allen attempted 46 passes, which would have been his highest all of last year. Kincaid saw four other players earn more targets than him in a massive volume game for Allen that feels more rare these days. Since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator halfway through the 2023 season, Allen’s pass attempts per game have dropped considerably as they’ve moved to be more run-heavy. He dropped from roughly 34 attempts per game in his career through 2023 to 28 per game last season.

Kincaid also played only 49.4% of the snaps in what will likely be one of their highest passing volume games of the year. Including games where he left early with injury last season, he had a snap share of less than 50% in five of 13 games. The Bills’ passing attack has adopted the “everybody eats” mindset that is fine for reality football, but not ideal for fantasy football. We want consolidated passing attacks with projectable volume, and Buffalo has transitioned into a spread-out and lower-volume passing attack. They were incredibly efficient last year and will continue to be, but replicating that level of efficiency will be challenging. Upcoming schedule: at NYJ, vs. MIA, vs. NO, vs. NE, at ATL

 

James Conner (RB – ARI)

RB16: 12 Attempts, 39 Rushing Yards | 4 Targets, 4 Receptions, 5 Receiving Yards, 1 TD

It was a fine game for Conner as he found the end zone and caught some balls, but second-year back Trey Benson was involved more and looked dynamic. After playing only 12% of the snaps and getting 64 rush attempts as a rookie, Benson handled eight carries and 33% of the snaps in Week 1 against the Saints. He broke off a 52-yard run and was held in check outside of that, but the coaching staff has made it evident throughout the summer that Benson will see more touches this year.

Conner is in his age-30 season now, and while he’s ripped off multiple productive campaigns in a row, the wall hits eventually for these aging backs. I don’t think Conner loses his role as the main guy or anything barring injury, but he commanded nearly all of the running back touches last year and finished RB15 in PPR points per game. He likely won’t have that same usage this year, and he’d have to make up for it with high efficiency. Conner has historically been an efficient player, but he doesn’t have breakaway runs for long touchdowns, and again, it comes back to his age. Upcoming schedule: vs. CAR, at SF, vs. SEA, vs. TEN, at IND

 

Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)

WR1: 9 Targets, 7 Receptions, 143 Receiving Yards, 1 TD 

This is more of a “depending on what you can get” type of name to sell after a monster game to open the season for Zay Flowers.  Flowers is an awesome player who earns volume and is juiced up with the ball in his hands, but the Baltimore offense is extremely efficient and also run-heavy that which limits the upside of the pass catchers.

Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are so dominant that it’s easy to forget that the Ravens crew of pass catchers is incredibly deep and talented as well. Flowers has proven to be the primary target hog for Baltimore since being drafted in the first round in 2023, but there are multiple other really good players at wide receiver and tight end that offensive coordinator Todd Monken has to figure out how to find touches for. It can be a frustrating cycle, as there will be games like Sunday night against Buffalo, where Flowers goes berserk, but Lamar Jackson only threw 19 passes, and nobody else on the Ravens had more than two receptions. The floor is lower than you’d like it to be, given the construction of their offense. Upcoming schedule: vs. CLE, vs. DET, at KC, vs. HOU, vs. LAR

 

 

Photo by Mike Nowak, Michael Owens | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@CarbonFoxGFX on Twitter/X)