The injury bug seems to have spread a plague infecting nearly every fantasy roster out there. It hurts to lose a player to injury early in the season, especially those who were a high draft capital pick. You may need to decide whether to play the long game by picking up a short-term “duct-tape” player off waivers to hold you over for a few weeks, or cut your losses by selling your big-name player for depth. Winning the championship requires flexibility because, more often than not, the winning roster is vastly different than it looked on draft day.
BUY
George Pickens (WR – PIT)
Pickens may be flying under the radar after a disappointing Week 2 where he only had 2 receptions for 29 yards. If you watched this game, you’d know that he actually hauled in a 51-yard catch nullified by a hold, a touchdown retracted because of Van Jefferson’s OPI, and he drew a 37-yard DPI. Week 1 was a similar story with another big catch nullified by a ticky-tack OPI.
Last season, his 22% target share yielded over 1,100 yards at 18.1 yards/rec with a more crowded receiving room around him and Kenny Pickett at QB. Through these first two weeks, he’s seen 55% of targets and 53% of the Steelers’ total targeted air yards (4th-most of any WR behind Calvin Ridley, Malik Nabers, and Devonte Adams). This Steelers team is raising some eyebrows by starting 2-0 and leading the AFC North. Say what you will about Justin Fields, but this QB isn’t afraid to throw it deep and there’s only one guy he’s going after. Upcoming schedule: LAC, IND, DAL, LVR, NYJ.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS)
There was some uncertainty in Washington’s backfield after the team replaced Antonio Gibson with Austin Ekeler this offseason. Robinson fell to RB29 (91st overall) on draft day, and that draft price seemed to be justified after the two backs shared snaps close to 50-50 in Week 1.
This past weekend, Robinson started gaining an edge over Ekeler with a 60% snap share compared to Ekeler’s 43%. Rush attempts also favor Robinson by a large margin, going for 173 yards on 29 attempts versus Ekeler’s mere 48 yards on 10 attempts. The argument that Ekeler is used as a pass catcher isn’t substantiated as both backs have gotten the same number of targets (7) through these first two weeks. Some of Robinson’s efficiency this past weekend can be attributed to poor defense by the New York Giants, but Kliff Kingsbury is starting to show some favoritism toward the undeniably more explosive, younger RB. Upcoming schedule: CIN, ARI, CLE, BAL, CAR.
Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA)
Given an oblique injury that sidelined him last week and potentially another week or two (as the team is being cautious), some managers may be looking to move away from Walker to find a replacement. If you have depth at RB and can hold your roster over a week or two until he returns from injury, Walker is set to provide high-end RB2 production with upside for the remainder of the season.
Zach Charbonnet stymied Walker from an RB1 season last year as he finished as the RB19 averaging only a 57% snap share. Ryan Grubb has done an impressive job righting the ship as Seattle’s offense is far more efficient and off to a 2-0 start. Meanwhile, Charbonnet looks as though he’s gotten worse since last year averaging just 2.3 yards/carry. That’s the 5th-worst rushing efficiency of the 47 RBs with at least 10 attempts (ahead of Trey Benson, Rachaad White, D’Andrew Swift, and Javonte Williams). Now is the time to buy Walker while other managers may be pivoting, and set yourself up for the rest of the season. Upcoming schedule: MIA, DET, NYG, SF, ATL.
SELL
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)
As I’m sure we’re all aware, the Rams lost both star receivers, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, to long-term injuries. While Kupp and Nacua managers scramble to fill their WR slots in their rosters, Kyren managers may be overlooking the impact it has on the Rams’ run game. Kyren averaged over 5 yards/carry last season as the Rams’ passing game was at its peak. Kyren averaged just 2.8 yards/carry while Nacua was hurt in Week 1. This decreased to just 2.1 yards/carry last week as Kupp too went down with an injury.
Matt Stafford has the fourth-most pass attempts through these first two weeks, but this offense may have to lean on the run game without their key receivers. Knowing this, defenses will load up the box and prevent this run game from going anywhere. Out of those 47 running backs with at least 10 rush attempts, Kyren has seen the 14th-fewest percent of snaps with 8+ defenders in the box. The Rams also have four offensive linemen on IR and another set to miss at least two weeks. McVay is a talented coach, but this 0-2 team has some tough defensive matchups ahead of them and the vibes could not be much lower. Upcoming schedule: SF, CHI, GB, BYE, LVR.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)
The LSU teammate connection between Chase and Joe Burrow has served fantasy managers extremely well with three consecutive WR1 seasons. Chase has averaged over 135 targets for 1,239 yards and 9.67 touchdowns over the start of his career. There’s no doubt he’s a top-tier talent in the league, which is why he was drafted as the WR4.
Through these first two games, Chase has only been targeted 11 times (on pace for just 93 targets on the season). The contract disputes over preseason may have raised some caution regarding the atmosphere in the locker room, but more concerning is his quarterback. After last season’s injury, Burrow has been seen both on the sidelines and the field massaging that recently repaired wrist. Chase’s frustrations made their way onto the field as he drew an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty by yelling at the ref after a completely legal tackle. Cincinnati is off to a very slow 0-2 start and there doesn’t appear to be any signs indicating an upswing any time soon. Upcoming schedule: WAS, CAR, BAL, NYG, CLE.
Xavier Worthy (WR – KC)
The speedy rookie receiver exploded onto the scenes with two highlight-reel touchdowns in his first NFL game. I nearly included him as a Sell in last week’s Buy&Sell article, but needed to see another week to better understand his role in this Chiefs offense. Worthy is a classic case of a boom-bust player, where he could win you weeks with a big performance in one game and then follow up with a dud the next.
Yes, he’s fast, but a receiver who only gets three or four targets a game cannot be a reliable starter on your fantasy roster. The injury to Isaiah Pacheco may have a similar impact on Worthy as the injuries to Kupp and Nacua will have on Kyren – a lack of rushing efficiency will negatively impact the Chiefs’ passing game. The best quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes spread the target share around as they’re able to find anyone who’s open. Rashee Rice has also been proving to be Mahomes’ preferred target. Upgrade this rookie to a more reliable WR2, or target a higher talent that may be missing time due to injury. Upcoming schedule: ATL, LAC, NO, BYE, SF.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Feature Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)