The surprises kept coming this past weekend as the Panthers got a blowout win and the Commanders beat the Bengals on the road. It’s important to keep in mind that with only three weeks in the books, we have a small sample size to work with and there’s plenty of season yet to be played. We’ll continue to roll with the punches and try our best to evade the inevitable chaos.
BUY
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
Aiyuk has been one of the most disappointing assets regarding return on investment for his ADP. Even with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffery all out with injuries, high output is expected from this 49ers offense. Jauan Jennings was awesome this week, no debate. He will likely continue contributing to this offense moving forward, but there’s a rule of thumb that’s as old as time: money talks.
Aiyuk got his massive contract extension after holding out of preseason training camp. A slow start could have been expected for any player who hasn’t spent much time shaking off the rust from the offseason. Expectations for Aiyuk were raised due to the absence of this offense’s other key weapons, and he hasn’t met that high bar quite yet. Jennings may have had an explosive week, but Aiyuk still saw 10 targets and he won’t be forgotten. Brock Purdy continues to be a more than capable QB, so it’s only a matter of time before the $30 million/year WR starts earning his paycheck. Upcoming schedule: NE, ARI, SEA, KC, DAL.
Ladd McConkey (WR – LAC)
There are few who doubt Justin Herbert‘s ability as a quarterback, but it was unclear who Herbert’s primary target would be this season. All eyes may be turned to Quentin Johnston as he’s scored three touchdowns in the past two weeks and appears to have solved his training camp issues with dropping the ball.
McConkey leads the team in target share at 27% and is averaging a respectable 10.9 yards/reception. He has served as the consistent mid-range receiver, whereas Johnston’s usage is more indicative of boom/bust production – this past week he scored on a blown coverage and was only targeted twice. Additionally, rookie tackle Joe Alt exited the game with an injury, which may impact the Chargers’ tendency to run the ball. Herbert’s health is also in question as he’s dealing with a sprained ankle, so McConkey may not come at a lower price than this week. Playing the long game for the season, McConkey could be a viable weekly FLEX option with upside and should cost next to nothing to obtain. Upcoming schedule: KC, BYE, DEN, ARI, NO.
Rico Dowdle (RB – DAL)
It was an interesting offseason for the Cowboys, to say the least. As a result of major contract extensions to Dak Prescott and Ceedee Lamb, the team welcomed back 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott. After only the first few games though, all signs point toward Zeke losing the role as this team’s starting RB.
Dowdle’s rush share saw a major uptick this week from 42% in Weeks 1 and 2 to 62% in Week 3. He also played 22 snaps more than Zeke and continues to outpace him in targets, with five targets in each of the last two games compared to Zeke’s five total targets in that same span. Had it not been for Dallas playing from behind against the Ravens, this past weekend could have been Dowdle’s breakout game. Things will start clicking for this offense soon enough, and Dowdle is trending toward having a high volume share of it. Upcoming schedule: NYG, PIT, DET, BYE, SF.
SELL
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
No doubt about it, Kamara’s first three games have been incredible. Currently RB2 overall, he has provided incredible returns on his ADP averaging 20 rush attempts and 3.7 targets per game en route to 417 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns. The 29-year-old running back saw his highest snap rate and rush attempts of the season at 86% and 26 carries this past weekend.
During this game against the Eagles, the Saints’ starting center Erik McCoy went down with a groin injury. Kamara averaged just 3.35 yards/carry in his absence, compared to his previous games at 5.53 and 5.75 yards/carry. This offensive line is also without veteran OT Ryan Ramczyk for the season. While the high volume salvaged an otherwise disappointing game, his efficiency took a hit. Also taking a hit was Kamara himself, appearing to be shaken up toward the end of the game. A high workload increases his risk of injury, and missing key personnel on the offensive line will make an already difficult schedule even harder to continue at the pace he’s set. Upcoming schedule: ATL, KC, TB, DEN, LAC.
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)
Expectations for the Bears’ offense were at an all-time high after bringing in Keenan Allen and drafting Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze. Kmet comes out of Week 3 as the TE3 after a 10-reception game for 97 yards and a touchdown.
Kmet’s touchdown came during ‘garbage time’ with only two minutes left in the game, and it was the Bears’ second passing touchdown of the season. Kmet saw only six total targets through the first two weeks. It’s hard to be optimistic about this offense without addressing that abysmal offensive line. Being a tight end, Kmet may find himself in pass protection more, but at the very least his target share will take a hit upon the return of Keenan Allen. Upcoming schedule: LAR, CAR, JAX, BYE, WAS.
Christian Kirk (WR – JAX)
A resurgence this week for Kirk opens the door for obtaining a more valuable replacement. Bringing in eight catches on 10 targets landed Kirk as the WR23 this week, though consistent WR2 production does not seem likely for the remainder of the season.
Being down multiple scores against Buffalo led the game script to Jacksonville relying on passing the ball. The Jaguars have the sixth-fewest yards from passing through three weeks, as Trevor Lawrence has the second-worst completion rate of any starting QB at a mere 53% (ahead of only Anthony Richardson). Targets have been spread across this offense, with only 62% of targets going to WRs. Targets have been almost an exact even split within the receiver group as Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr., and Gabe Davis have been targeted 17, 17, and 16 times respectively. The output of this offense is a small pie to have a piece of, and Kirk is not a big enough slice to justify owning. Upcoming schedule: HOU, IND, CHI, NE, GB.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Feature Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)