Buy & Sell Week 5

Buy-Low and Sell-High player recommendations following Week 4.

Jesse Maida
Trade Talk 5 Days Ago

We are officially past the quarter-way point of the fantasy football regular season and have enough data to identify some real trends. This week’s article highlights three wide receivers I’m buying who can be real difference makers this season at a fair price and three players I’m selling: one sell-high, one sell-low, and a quarterback who is the current face of the NFL but no longer a fantasy asset.

 

BUY

 

George Pickens (WR – PIT)

 

This is likely your last chance to get George Pickens at a reasonable price. His value has certainly increased since being featured in this column two weeks ago, but it’s about to skyrocket as all signs point to lift off. Pickens is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season, securing seven receptions on 11 targets for 113 yards (all-season highs). However, it should have been so much more. Not only did he have an egregious fumble at the Colts’ five-yard line, but Pickens also dropped a wide-open touchdown. This could have easily been a top-three weekly finish for the Steelers’ #1 receiver.

Additionally, the advanced data supports that we should expect more production similar to Week 4 vs. what we saw in Weeks 1-3:

  • As per Fantasy Points Data, Pickens ranked sixth in average separation score heading into Week 4, which Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception also backed. Despite poor fantasy production in Weeks 1 and 2, Harmon described Pickens as “one of the most impressive wide receivers in the NFL through two weeks,” highlighting his 80%+ success rate vs. both man and press coverage.
  • Pickens ranks third in targets and first in yards among wide receivers without a touchdown in 2024. His expected touchdowns through four weeks is 1.97, and we should expect this touchdown rate to improve.
  • Pickens ranks as the WR17 in expected PPR points per game vs. WR35 in realized fantasy production.

I expect Pickens to be a top-24 wide receiver the rest of the way with top-15 upside if Justin Fields continues to improve. Upcoming schedule: DAL, LV, NYJ, NYG, BYE.

 

Rashid Shaheed (WR – NO)

 

Chris Olave will be a popular buy-low player this week (and I agree) but I have my eye on another Saints wide receiver who can be acquired for much cheaper. As someone who stashed Rashid Shaheed in my home dynasty league in October of 2022, I’ve watched way more tape of the speedy Saints wide receiver than I’d like to admit. I’m no NFL scout, but it was clear to me from the very beginning that he is very good at football! Normally you would have to “buy high” on a player who was drafted very late with current ranks of WR21 in PPR and WR19 in 0.5 PPR through four weeks. However, Shaheed still has this stigma of a boom/bust deep threat and you should certainly check with the manager of your league to see if they feel the same way.

It’s harder to defend Shaheed as a player who isn’t boom/bust after the Week 3 goose egg he left in your lineup, but I’ll do my best:

  • Shaheed had a 31% target share in Week 4 and hasn’t had a target share below 22% in any game this season. For reference, he only reached 20% target share twice in 2023, and three times in his rookie season (very low volume passing attack).
  • Shaheed set a career-high in Week 4 with 11 targets, more targets than Olave. He also ran more routes and had more air yards than Olave, while also carrying the ball twice for 14 yards.
  • Through four weeks, Shaheed now has target shares of 22%, 27%, 26%, and 31%, and air yard shares of 47%, 46%, 51%, and 52%.
  • In Week 4, Shaheed had an average depth of target of 10.8 yards versus 18 yards in Weeks 1-3 as we saw Derek Carr utilize the short passing game versus the Falcons.

Shaheed has actually scored more fantasy points than Olave through four weeks this season and in their last 23 games together, Shaheed averages only 10 yards per game less than Olave, despite being nowhere near as involved in the offense for a majority of those contests. This is not a knock on Olave, but rather a case for Shaheed as a consistent player you can trust in your flex. The Saints offense is highly consolidated, which is exactly what we want for fantasy football. This consolidation combined with a career-best usage, and potentially being used more in the short passing game has me bullish on Shaheed. As a bonus, the next two matchups project for a game flow where the Saints should have to pass the ball, with the Chiefs on deck who currently rank 23rd in passing yards allowed per game. Upcoming schedule: KC, TB, DEN, LAC, CAR.

 

Dontayvion Wicks (WR – GB)

 

Fantasy football Twitter’s favorite year-two breakout finally got the playing time we were all hoping for. Dontayvion Wicks was thrust into a full-time role after the Packers fell behind 28-0 and lost Christian Watson with a high-ankle sprain, finishing with a 76% snap share (second highest of his career), catching five balls on a whopping 13 targets, with two touchdowns. Similar to Shaheed mentioned above, you would usually have to “buy high” on a player in this situation but I’ve seen so many excuses already discounting Wicks as a legitimate long-term fantasy option; “Doubs is the guy you want”, “he got all his points in garbage time”, “he played horrible and struggles with drops”, “Watson is not going to the IR and will be back soon”, “Watson being hurt is better for Jayden Reed than Wicks”, etc. Be thankful these excuses are keeping his value lower than it should be.

If you weren’t able to grab Wicks off waivers this morning (or he’s already rostered), I’d encourage you to check on his price because he was one the most obvious breakout candidates this offseason for a reason; it was just a matter of playing time. If you aren’t familiar with Wicks, as a rookie, he ranked 30th among all wide receivers in PFF receiving grade, and had a first down or touchdown on 50% of targets, while posting elite first-down-per-route-run metrics (which is quantifiably more stable and better at predicting fantasy points than yards per route run as per Ryan Heath at Fantasy Points). Wicks can ball and here’s what happens when he actually gets the opportunity to do so:

  • Led the team with a 26% target share once Watson was ruled out in Week 4.
  • Averages 21.2 fantasy points in his three career games when playing more than 70% of snaps.
  • Ranks second in the NFL in end zone targets per route at 5.63%.
  • Currently ranks fourth among all wide receivers with a minimum of 60 routes in average separation score.

Wicks earns targets at a very high rate, especially end zone targets, consistently generates elite separation, and now has an opportunity to be a full-time player for a high-powered offense. Yes, Wicks may be a one-week wonder but these opportunities don’t come around too often. Get Wicks before it’s too late. Upcoming schedule: LAR, ARI, HOU, JAX, DET.

 

SELL

 

Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)

 

Patrick Mahomes is no longer an elite fantasy asset and his performance dating back to the middle of 2023 does not even justify a roster spot in 12-team leagues. After another poor performance in Week 4, finishing as QB17, Mahomes now has only one top-12 weekly finish in the last 13 weeks and has not registered a top-six weekly finish since Week 7 of 2023. If his name wasn’t Patrick Mahomes, he would be sitting in free agency.

The fact he’s not in free agency is exactly why you should try and sell him, especially after the Chiefs expect Rashee Rice to miss significant time, perhaps the entire season. Mahomes is one of the few players you may be able to trade due to his brand name alone as he is no doubt still a superstar and face of the NFL. If you can acquire any player that will improve your starting lineup for Mahomes, even your FLEX (or 2nd FLEX), that is a trade I would do immediately. Mahomes’ production is below replacement level, meaning you can easily find equivalent production on waivers with quarterbacks like Andy Dalton, or in the cases of Sam Darnold, Fields, and Geno Smith, you can get more fantasy points than what Mahomes is giving you now.

Trading quarterbacks is usually difficult in one-QB leagues but check in on the Anthony Richardson manager and see if they’re frustrated. Do the same with the Kyler Murray manager, and even the Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins, and Justin Herbert managers (if they haven’t moved on already). If there’s anyone that can turn it around it’s Mahomes, but with two tough matchups ahead and a bye in between, he’s more likely to be a roster clogger until at least Week 8.  Upcoming schedule: NO, BYE, SF, LV, TB.

 

D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI)

 

D’Andre Swift managers were given a gift in Week 4 after three straight duds to start the season, providing a perfect sell-high opportunity. I actually quite like Swift as a player and have always been a believer in his talent, I would just rather explore if there’s a chance to acquire a more consistent player in my starting lineup because I’m not betting on this receiving usage going forward. Swift had a 30% target share, resulting in seven targets for 72 yards in Week 4, compared to a 52% target share, 6 receptions, and 51 receiving yards combined for DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze. Swift scored 14.2 PPR fantasy points through the air in Week 4, versus 10.4 fantasy points in the first three weeks. I am betting on Week 4 being an outlier.

Swift’s Week 4 opponents, the Los Angeles Rams, rank dead last in rushing yards allowed per game and total points allowed through four weeks which I suspect could have aided the breakout. The Bears offensive line improved versus. the Rams but this is another trend I’m not willing to bet on. Through three weeks, Swift was arguably the worst running back in the league when looking at advanced metrics, highlighted by his abysmal yards after and before contact (see below). It is worth noting that Swift’s upcoming schedule is friendly, so there could very well be more “sell high” opportunities, but this past week may just be his best week of the season. Upcoming schedule: CAR, JAX, BYE, WAS, ARI.

 

Rachaad White (RB – TB)

 

Unfortunately, not all “sells” can be a “sell high”. Selling low on your early-round draft picks is not optimal, but in the case of Rachaad White, I think his value can go a lot lower. Last offseason, the fantasy community was overly high on UDFA Sean Tucker due to the inefficiency of White’s rookie season. This offseason, some people doubled down on White’s inefficiency yet again, touting Bucky Irving as a legitimate threat for the RB1 role, while others referenced Tucker, rolling their eyes, saying “not this again”. Through four weeks, it appears we have a 1A/1B situation, with both Bucs running backs totaling 49 yards on 10 carries in Week 4. However, these running backs are trending in opposite directions with Irving seeing season-high usage, which correlates to White having season-low usage. White was dealing with food poisoning late in the week which could be the reason for his season-low 58% snap share, but Irving earned more touches regardless of White’s health.

For the third season in a row, White is once again one of the least efficient backs in the NFL, and with a capable teammate finally in the backfield, his workhorse role is no longer justified. White has not only already lost the workhorse role, but potentially the red zone work too with decreasing pass game usage:

  • White had played 100% of Tampa Bay’s red zone snaps through three weeks but Irving handled all five of Tampa’s red zone rush attempts in Week 4.
  • White’s route participation rate fell to 46% in Week 4, down from 60% in Week 3 and 70% in 2023.
  • White also saw most of his touches in garbage time. At one point the backfield touches were 9-4 for Irving, with six of White’s carries coming in the fourth quarter with the game out of hand.

A bet on White rebounding is a bet that his illness is the reason for his usage dip. That’s not a bet I’m willing to make with White currently dead last in the league in yards per carry at 2.8 (min 30 attempts). If White isn’t going to score points on the ground, then he must remain a weapon in the passing game, but Irving is an extremely capable receiver himself, currently with a comparable PFF receiving grade of 65 versus 71 for White. Irving even has a better pass-blocking grade than White, albeit, on a limited sample. White is still valued as a top 25-ish PPR running back rest-of-season and I’d be looking to move him immediately before the value is completely gone. Upcoming schedule: ATL, NO, BAL, ATL, KC.

 

Photos by Icon Sportswire | Feature Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)

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