It seems as though many teams and players were shaking off the rust through the first few weeks of the regular season. There was higher quality play, closer matchups, and key players being more involved across the league. This isn’t to say that what we saw at the start of the season should be discounted by any means, but rather that this past week may have changed the trajectories of certain players and teams compared to what originally thought. This edition of Buy/Sell includes three receivers to buy low and three running backs to sell high.
BUY
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
We all know who he is and don’t need a bunch of stats to back up his skill. After Tua Tagavoila suffered another concussion in Week 2, Hill’s production took a major step back, averaging just four receptions per game since that point. Tua is on IR until at least Week 8 and may not be expected to play for another few additional weeks. Tyreek owners may be looking to sell him due to a lack of confidence in Miami’s ability to get him the ball and an upcoming Week 6 bye, providing the perfect opportunity to obtain him at a reasonable cost.
Miami runs a complicated offense, as was seen by Tyler Huntley’s struggles in his few games as the starter. There is optimism though, as Tyreek had six receptions on nine targets this past week against New England. Miami also released Tim Boyle, potentially freeing up a roster spot for the acquisition of another QB. Raheem Mostert returned to the field this past week, and Devon Achane is not expected to miss more than a game with the concussion he incurred this past week. The combination of Miami’s returned strength in the running game, Huntley’s improvements, and Tua’s return for the second half of the season provide immense upside for the reigning WR2. Upcoming schedule: BYE, IND, ARI, BUF, LAR.
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
I view Sutton as very similar to Terry McLaurin – a talented receiver, the clear number-one receiver on their team, but had their careers limited by poor quarterbacks. While Washington found a gem in Jayden Daniels, it has been a slow start to the season for Bo Nix and the Broncos. Through these first five weeks, Sutton has yet to finish as better than WR29 in PPR as Denver’s offense ranks 28th in total yards and tied for 29th in passing TDs (3) on the season.
The Broncos have competed against strong defenses with good secondaries through their first four games (SEA, PIT, TB, NYJ) until playing an average Raiders defense this past week. As a result of an easier matchup and improvements in their rushing game, Nix had his highest completion rate (70%) on the season and two of his three passing TDs. On the season, Sutton has accounted for:
- 41 targets (tied for 13th-most among all pass catchers) for a 25.6% target share
- 5 receptions of 20+ yards (tied for 12th-most among all pass catchers)
- 45.8% of the team’s targeted air yards – 6th-most among WRs with 13 or more targets and ahead of Mike Evans, Nico Collins, and Malik Nabers.
With an improving QB, a more favorable upcoming schedule, and a massive share of this team’s passing game, Sutton is primed to yield FLEX-WR2 level production for as cheap a price tag as you can find. Upcoming schedule: LAC, NO, CAR, BAL, KC.
Jordan Addison (WR – MIN)
Addison may be flying under the radar after missing Weeks 2 and 3 with an ankle injury, and an underwhelming game against the Jets this past weekend. Minnesota flies back from London to head into their Week 6 BYE and then plays a sticky Detroit defense upon their return to action.
With Kirk Cousins at the helm in 2023, Addison finished the season as WR23 in PPR or WR21 in 0.5-PPR. The transition to Sam Darnold has exceeded all expectations as he’s led this offense to the 6th-most points scored by any team, and the second-most passing touchdowns (11). Being second in the line behind Justin Jefferson may be a blessing in disguise as defenses attempt to key in on the best receiver in the NFL. Players serving a similar role on other teams include the likes of Jameson Williams and Rasheed Shaheed, who have both seen success through this point in the season as deep threats, and big playmakers on a high-end offense. Through the three games he’s played, Addison is averaging 17 air yards per target (tied for 4th-most) and 15.9 yards per reception.
While he only brought in 3 receptions for 36 yards in London, he was targeted eight times and had big opportunities taken away by poor throws from Darnold. Darnold appeared to be shaking off a big hit to his abdomen during that game, something that should subside following the bye week. Upcoming schedule: BYE, DET, LAR, IND, JAX.
2024 WR Leaders by Average Separation Score (ASS)
+ per @FantasyPtsData pic.twitter.com/6MHbmTYBEu— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 8, 2024
SELL
Jordan Mason (RB – SF)
The obvious crux of the argument for selling Mason lies upon the return of Christian McCaffrey. The timeline of his return is not fully established, but Mason’s trade value plummets the moment any meaningful news emerges from the 49ers’ camp. The easiest comparison to make is with Cleveland’s Jerome Ford and the return of Nick Chubb. Ford was a sell candidate two weeks ago before news broke of Chubb’s return to practice. Mason is obviously a more talented running back than Ford, and on a much better offense, but the point remains that the time to sell Mason is before McCaffrey’s timeline is concrete.
There may be some recency bias from last season with Puka Nacua being a league-winner acquired off waivers after Week 1. While Mason seems to be following in the same footsteps, reports indicate that McCaffrey’s return appears more likely than not and somewhere around Week 8-10. While it’s unlikely that McCaffrey will fully supplant Mason, the perception of Mason’s value will definitely take a hit and the backfield will be shared by fantasy playoffs. He’s currently being viewed as a set-and-forget RB1, which is as high as his value can/will be for the remainder of the season. He can be traded to acquire high-end talent who has far less associated risk. Upcoming schedule: SEA, KC, DAL, BYE, TB.
Christian McCaffrey
Week 6 update
CMC pic.twitter.com/Y4ZJkGvkGa
— Jesse Morse, MD (@DrJesseMorse) October 8, 2024
Najee Harris (RB – PIT)
Najee has benefitted from a higher snap share due to the absence of Jaylen Warren, who has been sidelined with a knee injury since Week 3. He’s been the definition of consistent, averaging just over 10 fantasy points per game in PPR. He’s accounted for 68.9% of the team’s rushes from running backs and 61% of the rush yards from Steelers’ RBs. His 82 rush attempts are the 7th-most of any running back in the league.
Pittsburgh ranks 29th in yards per rush attempt despite running the ball the 3rd most of any team. Per Next Gen Stats, Najee has the 3rd worst yards over expected at -63 yards on the season, ahead of only D’Andre Swift (-70 yards) and Devon Achane (-78 yards). With Warren’s return on the horizon, Najee will see less volume on a very inefficient rushing offense. Even in PPR, he is only being targeted an average of 3.4 times per game for 2.4 receptions per game. Upcoming schedule: LV, NYJ, NYG, BYE, WAS.
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR)
Currently RB7 in PPR, Hubbard has put up three straight top-10 finishes as he’s averaged over 100 yards and four receptions in these past three contests. He’s averaging an impressive 5.8 yards/carry with +1.75 yards over expected per attempt on the season. His 393 rushing yards land him at the 5th-most among running backs.
The selling point for Chuba is a combination of the aforementioned arguments against the other two Sell candidates: he has benefited from a large share of his team’s pie and will soon be competing for rush share. The Panthers were the first team to draft a running back in the 2024 Draft, taking Jonathon Brooks with the 46th overall pick. The fantasy realm was very high on Brooks during the preseason, but he’s been recovering from a torn ACL on IR and his practice window has not yet been established. Head coach Dave Canales indicated Brooks is in the final stages of his recovery, and announced his 21-day practice window may be quickly approaching.
Andy Dalton has been an excellent replacement for Bryce Young in the passing game, and yet the Panthers rank only 27th in scoring across the league and are middle of the pack (17th) in rushing yards. Hubbard’s fantasy production comes hand-in-hand with the volume he’s been seeing. Similar to selling Mason before McCaffrey’s timeline is established, Hubbard can be sold at his peak value before Books officially comes off IR. Upcoming schedule: ATL, WAS, DEN, NO, NYG.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Feature Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)