With one-third of the season under our belts, we’ve seen enough to know who the high-powered offenses are and which players have meaningful roles within their team. Two blockbuster WR trades took place this week with Devonte Adams going to the Jets and Amari Cooper signing with the Bills. Similar to NFL teams, fantasy managers should be looking to make moves to put their team in a better position to win their matchups. Keep in mind that we are far enough away from draft day that the price of a player’s ADP should no longer factor into their buy or sell price.
BUY
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA)
Metcalf comes off two consecutive weeks with four and three receptions for 55 and 48 yards, respectively. These are two of his three (out of six) games in which he failed to break 10 fantasy points in PPR. He has not recorded a touchdown since Week 3, landing him outside the 26 WRs with at least three TDs. Support for his teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba is growing across the fantasy community as there is a general sense the second-year wideout is due for a breakout.
The argument for DK: the 6’4″ 235-pound true X-receiver has accumulated the 4th-most receiving yards in the NFL. Per Fantasy Points Data, Matcalf’s 79.8 Catchable Air Yards per Game is third behind only Nico Collins (84.4) and Malik Nabers (81.0). He’s tied for the most completions of over 20 yards with eight in these first six games. Last week against the 49ers, he had a 52-yard touchdown nullified by an illegal shift penalty, another touchdown incomplete by his toe landing an inch out of bounds, and a 35-yard target that could have resulted in a 50-yard touchdown had Geno Smith not underthrown him.
Remember that Seattle has mostly played top-half defenses: DEN, DET, NYG, and SF. Some owners may be starting to peg him as a boom/bust, but make no mistake – DK is a defacto WR1 for your roster that has simply had some misfortune and tough matchups in the early season. Upcoming schedule: ATL, BUF, LAR, BYE, SF.
Tee Higgins (WR – CIN)
After missing the first two weeks of the season with a hamstring injury, Higgins has only eclipsed 15 fantasy points in PPR once in the four games he’s played. Currently the WR34, he’s averaging just 7.0 yards per target with his only two touchdowns coming in the same game during a shootout against Baltimore. Meanwhile, Ja’Marr Chase is back to his high-level production as the WR2 overall with 565 yards and 5 touchdowns on the season.
Chase isn’t going anywhere, but Higgins’s role and his quarterback are improving. The Bengals have historically struggled through the first few weeks in each of their last few seasons, yet Joe Burrow has led this team to the 6th most passing yards and 3rd-most passing touchdowns in the league. In the past three games, Higgins has outpaced Chase in targets (31 to 24), with twice as many first-read targets this past week (six to three). Chase’s first-read target share has steadily decreased over the past three seasons: 37.3% in 2022, 30.7% in 2023, and 25.4% in 2024. Higgins is also seeing 9.7 Air Yards per Target, compared to Chase’s 8.7 AY/T. Higgins also leads the Bengals in targets inside the red zone (6) – despite missing the first two weeks.
These statistics show that Higgins is being involved more often and in a meaningful way, and Chase’s production comes after the catch. Burrow’s capability provides this offense with plenty of meat to go around, even with Chase sporadically breaking off big plays. Upcoming schedule: CLE, PHI, LV, BAL, LAC.
Josh Jacobs (RB – GB)
Having shares of Jacobs myself, I can say firsthand that he has been a frustrating disappointment to have drafted as an RB1. He’s averaging only 11.9 points/game and barely averaging two targets a game. With AJ Dillon and MarShawn Lloyd out with injuries, Emmanual Wilson has gotten secondary duties behind Jacobs. Despite dominating the backfield’s share of snaps and rushes, Jacobs only has one touchdown on the season – the same as Wilson.
This slow start to the season seems to have established a floor for the former league-leading rusher. Matt LaFleur has moved on from splitting backfield work, allowing Jacobs to take on a 65% snap share and 66% rush share. He’s averaging 20 touches per game on an offense that ranks 3rd in rush attempts and 2nd in rushing yards on the season. The outlier here is that the Packers’ 3 rushing touchdowns land them as 24th in the league. Jacobs has all nine of the Packers’ rush attempts inside the 10-yard line, with six of them coming inside the 5-yard line. He’s getting the goal line work and he has the 5th-most rushing yards of any RB in the league. The touchdowns will come, so now is the time to buy in on this top-10 scoring offense’s leadback while you still can. Upcoming schedule: HOU, JAX, DET, BYE, CHI.
SELL
JK Dobbins (RB – LAC)
Coming out of the gates hot, Dobbins started the year with two consecutive games of over 20+ points in PPR. He’s currently the RB15, averaging 15.8 points a game via his 438 rushing yards and 3 TDs on the season. Returning from a Week 5 BYE, Dobbins put up another solid game as the RB14 with 18.2 points. Given his ADP was in the 12th round, he may be the current best return on investment from draft day. Jim Harbough and Greg Roman prefer to run the ball, ranking 3rd in the league with 52.4% of their plays being on the ground. Combined with the high volume, the Chargers’ revitalized offensive line has allowed Dobbins to return to form after rehabbing his torn Achilles from Week 1 in 2023.
His efficiency is almost anomalous, ranking 6th in Rush Yards over Expectation per Attempt at 1.63 RYOE/Att per Next Gen Stats – in an outlier tier along the likes of Chuba Hubbard, Jordan Mason, and Tank Bigsby. This may be partially due to being the only running back with 3 rush attempts going for over 40 yards.
The other running back brought over from Baltimore, Gus Edwards, was placed on IR this week due to an ankle injury. This opened the door for rookie Kimani Vidal to play in his first game as a pro. It could have been expected for Dobbins to continue seeing the majority of the workload – 73% snap share compared to Vidal’s 24% snap share – but the rookie shined in his debut. He only saw 4 carries for 11 yards, but provided something Dobbins does not in his pass-catching. The rookie brought in both targets for a total of 40 yards and a touchdown. Among 2023 RB prospects, Vidal ranked 1st in PFF’s pass-blocking grade, 2nd in rushing yards (1,661), and 2nd in broken tackles (94).
Dobbins has yet to play in more than 8 games since his rookie season in 2020. While injuries are somewhat unpredictable, his history puts him at a higher risk of missing time going forward. Even if he stays healthy in the near future, Vidal’s workload is expected to increase. This was a low-cost draft pick that provided incredible returns for the start of the year, so thank him for his service and send him on his way before his workload and efficiency show any signs of regression. Upcoming schedule: ARI, NO, CLE, TEN, CIN.
Amari Cooper (WR – BUF)
The second big-name WR trade of the day was Buffalo acquiring Cooper from Cleveland. There are plenty of statistics to substantiate that Deshaun Watson has been a hindrance to his production this season. Now, Cooper joins one of the top QBs in the league on a much more efficient offense so the public perception of this trade immediately skyrockets expectations of this underperforming asset.
While it is undeniably true that Josh Allen is a far better QB than Watson and that Cooper hasn’t been able to realize his full potential on the Browns, there are strong reasons to doubt that he is walking into rock-solid WR2-level production. Looking at the Bills’ target share, Dalton Kincaid’s 31 targets outpace the receiving room of Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, and Curtis Samuel (21, 20, 19, and 17 targets respectively). The Bills are 27th in the league in passing attempts through these first 6 Weeks, averaging less than 27 pass attempts per game. Cooper finished as the WR20 in PPR last year, though that required 128 targets (8.5 targets/game). Assuming his yardage and touchdown rates stay the same as last season, he would have to walk into a 32% target share to get back to producing his ~15.1 fantasy points per game.
Sure, he may see some improved efficiency on the better team, but it is unlikely to expect him to walk right into being the team’s leading target above Kincaid (who again is only seeing a 19.5% target share). Last season for the Bills, Stefon Diggs saw a huge hit to his target share and production when Joe Brady took over as the Bills’ offensive play-caller. This is not an offense that feeds a single player, and not a high enough volume passing team to rely upon a minimal target share.
Amari Cooper is a talented receiver who will certainly contribute to this offense to some effect, but expectations of his fantasy output should be tempered. If you drafted him and have held on through his darkest days, you can cash out now for a higher value and known asset to hopefully make up for the horrid past few weeks. Upcoming schedule: TEN, SEA, MIA, IND, KC.
Caleb Williams (QB – CHI)
The first-overall pick from the 2024 NFL draft has finally put together two solid weeks scoring 23.6 and 28.6 fantasy points. His passer rating per Next Gen Stats has increased from an average of 62.5 over the first three weeks to 119.0 the following three weeks. All signs point toward a rookie QB getting better, right?
Yes, Caleb has looked a lot better these last few games; however, they came against the Jaguars and Panthers who are literally the two worst defenses in the league. The issues on Chicago’s offensive line are still there, but most importantly his schedule is about to get much more difficult. He has yet to play any division rivals – the Vikings, Packers, and Lions rank as the 2nd, 13th, and 5th best defenses respectively. He’ll have to play each of those teams twice, with the fantasy playoff schedule of Weeks 14-17 against the 49ers, Vikings, Lions, and Seahawks.
Even with the easiest part of his schedule behind him, Caleb ranks 13th in passing yards. He’s tied for the 9th-most touchdowns, but he’s also thrown the 8th most interceptions. His 4.4 Average Completed Air Yards is 29th among QBs, behind Will Levis and Bryce Young (4.5 and 4.8 ACAY). Caleb’s 65.3% completion rate is 20th in the league. And finally, while he’s seen as a mobile QB, he has the 11th most rushing attempts among QBs but is one of only three of those 11 without a rushing TD (the other two are Brock Purdy and Daniel Jones).
To recap: he showed he could put things together against bad defenses but generally hasn’t been a very impressive passer, he doesn’t get the production on the ground to make up for it, and his schedule is about to get much more difficult. Upcoming schedule: BYE, WAS, ARI, NE, GB.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Feature Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)