Week 7 was another bloodbath, losing Brandon Aiyuk and Chris Godwin to season-ending injuries, along with Mike Evans who is expected to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. In addition, DK Metcalf, Jayden Daniels, and Deebo Samuel are all at risk of missing week 8, leaving massive holes in our fantasy football lineups as we officially enter into the 2nd half of the regular season. If your free agent pool is barren and your starting lineup needs help, it’s time to get creative. Below are three players I’m buying and selling to help make a push for the fantasy playoffs.
BUY
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)
In my opinion, Malik Nabers is the most obvious buy candidate in all of fantasy football. Most managers probably aren’t selling him low, but he hasn’t been fantasy-relevant for three straight weeks after missing two games with a concussion and putting up a dud in week 7, finishing outside the 40 WRs. It’s possible some managers will see a rookie’s hot start as an outlier and look to move him in fear of Daniel Jones holding him back, or even worse, Drew Lock taking over at QB for the Giants. If there is a manager in your league feeling this way, who is 1-6 or 2-5 and feels they need to win immediately, you need to check on the price of Nabers.
Despite a terrible week 7 performance, Nabers still projects to be a top-10 WR for the rest of the season, with top-3 upside:
- Nabers commanded a 42.1% 1st-read target share in week 7, the 5th highest on the week.
- He is one of only nine players to be targeted on 30+% of his routes run
- As per Jacob Gibbs, catchable air yards are worth 52% more fantasy points than raw air yards. Nabers averages 70 catchable air yards per game, 5th highest in the league only trailing A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Nico Collins, and DK Metcalf. That’s some good company.
Nabers has a tough matchup in week 8 vs. the Steelers, so it is possible he underwhelms again, but if he bounces back, the buy window is closed for good. I am not taking that risk and am looking to buy him right now. Upcoming schedule: PIT, WAS, CAR, BYE, TB
Season-long leaders in catchable air yards per game:
85 — DK Metcalf
84 — Nico Collins
75 — Justin Jefferson
74 — A.J. Brown
70 — Malik Nabers
69 — Tee Higgins
69 — George Pickens
64 — Terry McLaurin
62 — CeeDee Lamb
62 — Drake London
61 — Jauan Jennings
61 — Amon-Ra St. Brown— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 22, 2024
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
Rhamondre Stevenson’s value has never been lower. He ‘lost’ his starting job in week 4 to Antonio Gibson after an abysmal week 3 performance, highlighted by fumbling issues, then missed week 6 with an injury, returning in week 7 only to finish outside the top 40 RBs in a blowout loss to the Jaguars. Since week 3, Stevenson only has one top 36 weekly finish creating the ultimate buy-low opportunity. Unlike Nabers, it is very likely managers are looking to move him, especially those who are panicking and need to win right now.
It’s been ugly for Stevenson the past five weeks, but there is enough hope that I feel confident in the Patriots’ lead RB being a useful fantasy asset for the 2nd half of the season as he gets healthier and the offense gets better:
- Stevenson is still the lead back and his stranglehold on the job is arguably even stronger after Gibson failed to impress in week 6 and is now also dealing with a minor injury.
- Stevenson has finished RB13 or better in 50% of games this year and is a borderline RB1 when he receives 16+ touches. For this to happen, he needs to hang onto the ball and avoid negative game flow like what happened in week 7. The Patriots have one of the easiest strengths of schedule going forward, which should limit the number of blowouts.
- Drake Maye has been impressive in his first two career starts and should elevate the entire offense, providing Stevenson more scoring opportunities, while also keeping the team more competitive.
The payoff for acquiring Stevenson could be huge as his schedule from week 12 onwards is full of RB-friendly matchups, which includes the Dolphins, Colts, Cardinals, and Bills. Upcoming schedule: NYJ, TEN, CHI, LAR, MIA
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)
All Miami Dolphins are an obvious buy at the moment with Tua Tagovailoa expected to return in week 8, however, it’s the week 7 usage that actually makes De’Von Achane a player I’m looking to acquire to help win my leagues. With all three running backs (Achane, Raheem Mostert, and Jaylen Wright) active and finishing the game healthy, Achane was the clear starter, playing 58% of the snaps vs. 33% for Mostert, including all 10 snaps in the two-minute drill, 60% of 3rd down snaps vs. 40% for Mostert, while doubling Mostert in routes run.
Some managers may be blinded by Achane only receiving four more carries than Mostert while also ceding goal-line snaps and a majority of short-yardage work, which makes this backfield a true RBBC. That is something you should try to take advantage of. Achane was never going to be a workhorse in this offense, but the community still decided his ADP should be in the second round, and his week 7 usage is exactly what we were hoping for when we drafted him. 17 touches in this offense while dominating the receiving work is more than enough for Achane to provide top-10 RB production going forward, assuming he and Tagovailoa both remain healthy. That is far from a guarantee, but we play to win, and in order to win, you need to take chances on players who have true game-winning potential. Achane is one of those players.
Achane’s upcoming schedule is extremely juicy, with five favorable matchups in the next six games. The schedule does get tougher towards the end of the season, creating a potential sell-high situation before the playoffs, but only for a truly elite asset if the opportunity arises. Upcoming schedule: ARI, BUF, LAR, LV, NE
SELL
Najee Harris (RB – PIT)
Najee Harris has been phenomenal recently, finishing RB 10 and RB 17 respectively in weeks 6 & 7, creating a perfect sell-high opportunity. Despite having his best performances of the season the past two weeks, while receiving a season-high in carries (21) last week, the return of Jaylen Warren certainly limits his ceiling. Harris has played less than 50% of the snaps since Warren returned in week 6, with limited passing game usage, totaling only three targets.
If Harris continues to carry the ball 17+ times per game, the snap share could be irrelevant but when looking at the upcoming schedule, I fear that not only will the Steelers face some negative game scripts, but even in positive/neutral games, Harris’ efficiency is likely to decline. Between weeks 11-17, the Steelers have to face the Ravens twice, Browns twice, Eagles, and Chiefs. The Ravens currently allow the fewest rushing yards allowed per game, 12 yards less than any other team, while the Browns, Eagles, and Chiefs are all in the top half of the league in rush yards allowed. The Steelers play the Chiefs in week 17, the fantasy championship, which is a brutal matchup as they currently allow the 4th fewest rushing yards per game and have only allowed 4 rushing touchdowns in six games. Even the more favourable matchups on the schedule being the Commanders and Bengals pose a risk of falling behind early, which would impact Harris negatively.
Jaylen Warren
– 7.9 Fantasy Points Week 7
– Season High 51% Snaps
– 15% FAABPlayed more snaps than Najee Harris in second game back from injury.
3 Targets in two straight games- Najee minimal receiving work.
PIT offense MUCH BETTER with Russell Wilson.pic.twitter.com/gXVq2syaoT https://t.co/Ia5rOI4LXV
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) October 22, 2024
With the Giants on deck this week, it’s very possible Harris has another fantastic game allowing you to squeeze some extra value in a trade, but I’m looking to sell him ASAP. Upcoming schedule: NYG, BYE, WAS, BAL, CLE.
Tank Bigsby (RB – JAX)
Tank Bigsby has certainly lived up to his name, rolling over defenders in recent weeks, reaching 90 rushing yards in three of the last four games, including two games with 100+ yards and two touchdowns. Even when Travis Etienne Jr. returns from injury, I don’t see how the Jaguars keep Bigsby off the field. In PPR leagues, I am looking to capitalize on this impressive stretch and try to acquire a more consistent option in my starting lineup. As fantastic as Bigsby has been, I just don’t see a scenario where he completely overtakes Etienne Jr. as lead back, making him an elite handcuff with stand-alone value. This is still a very friendly fantasy role, but not one I’m counting on to help with my playoff push.
The limitations of Bigsby are in the passing game, where he is an absolute zero, with one reception, on two targets for the entire season, including an awful drop in week 7. Etienne will dominate passing work upon return, and D’Ernest Johnson will be involved as well. Without any receiving work, Bigsby will need to score touchdowns and hope to do damage on his carries in a shared backfield (maybe 12-15 carries per game).
The upcoming schedule is also horrendous for Bigsby, with five consecutive matchups against tough defenses, all of which have blow-out potential, or at best, negative game scripts for the Jaguars. As mentioned above, Bigsby is a complete afterthought when the Jaguars are trailing, which is why I’m looking to sell him right now. Upcoming schedule: GB, PHI, MIN, DET, BYE.
Diontae Johnson (WR – CAR)
The Andy Dalton honeymoon phase didn’t last long and the Carolina Panthers are who we thought they were. In the past five weeks Dionate Johnson has three top 12 WR finishes with a WR58 finish in week 5 and a WR83 finish in week 7. His floor is bottomless and his future team is uncertain as he is a likely trade deadline acquisition for a WR-needy team. I am looking to trade him before the NFL trade deadline, hoping a manager views him as a top-20 WR. If he gets traded to a team like Tampa Bay, his value could potentially increase, but that’s not a risk I’m willing to take if someone is going to give me his current value at this very moment.
Even a trade to a favorable destination would not be enough to keep him on my team. Johnson has always earned his fantasy points through target volume and I’m not willing to bet he remains top 8 in the NFL in targets on a new team, especially one he joined mid-season. If he doesn’t get traded, I fear Dalton just makes him completely unstartable, or perhaps the Panthers switch back to Bryce Young, making him a dead asset. Johnson is currently the WR20 in both Half-PPR and PPR, propelled by three massive games and if I can get a more stable player in the same tier, or even better, package another asset with Johnson to move up a tier, I am making this move immediately.
Upcoming schedule: DEN, NO, NYG, BYE, KC
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Feature Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)