Well, national TE Week surely lived up to its name with 17 TDs going to TEs, including Kyle Pitts and Cade Otton scoring twice each! It’s a great sign to see some resurgence of points being scored across the league that translate to fantasy production. By this point in the season, though, you should be setting yourself up for the long haul. Maybe you’re under 0.500 and looking to make needed moves to have a chance at playoffs. Maybe you’re either in the middle of the pack or at the top of the standings trying to set yourself up with a championship-winning roster. Whatever the case, now is the time to strike some deals and put yourself in a better position to win those matchups!
BUY
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)
Burrow is the QB20 over the last three weeks, throwing for just 3 TDs in that span. In the last two games, he’s rushed for 12 total yards and averaged 13.9 fantasy points across those two games. The Bengals are now 3-5 and grasping at straws to claw their way back into the playoff picture.
I covered this past week’s game against the Eagles for our What-We-Saw Series, and I must say Burrow looked as good as ever despite the minimal fantasy output. He’s one of the best pocket passers in the league, with the 5th best QBR across QBs with 60+ pass attempts on the season. More importantly, his mobility was very impressive as he extended plays with his legs before eventually finding a receiver downfield. Let’s not forget he ran for 55 yards and a TD on only four attempts against the Giants a few weeks ago.
These past few games, he’s played top-end defenses and was without his leading target to that point: Tee Higgins. With their backs against the wall to string together wins for their playoff hopes, the return of Higgins, and an inefficient backfield, the Bengals will have to rely on their star QB. Burrow’s quietly thrown for the 5th most passing yards and 3rd most TDs (15) with only 3 interceptions. Upcoming schedule: LV, BAL, LAC, BYE, PIT.
Calvin Ridley (WR – TEN)
Currently the WR52 in PPR, Ridley’s owners may be looking to cash out after his production against Detroit. In the four games he played before last week (between weeks 3 through 7), his 23 targets yielded only 5 receptions for 56 yards as the WR110. He scored a single touchdown on the season back in Week 2, which was the only other week that he put up more than eight fantasy points.
Mason Rudolph might have thrown 2 interceptions against a high-end Lions defense, but he showed he could provide the support to Ridley that Will Levis could not. With Deandre Hopkins going off to Kansas City, Ridley immediately saw 15 targets. The Titans were losing the game and had to rely on throwing the ball, but will now face the 5th easiest strength of schedule for receivers for the remainder of the season.
More specifically for Ridley’s case, he has the highest percentage of his team’s targeted air yards in the league at 47.8%. He’s averaging 15.5 air yards per target, 7th highest in the league, right behind Terry McLaurin (15.6 AY/t). These are the same statistics used for the case of buying George Pickens in previous editions of this article back in Week 3 and Week 5. Ridley’s massive offseason contract, combined with Hopkins being traded away, has paved the way for Ridley to continue seeing an incredible target share with a more reliable QB and a much easier schedule down the stretch. Upcoming schedule: NE, LAC, MIN, HOU, WAS.
Rachaad White (RB – TB)
The focus in Tampa Bay’s backfield has been on Bucky Irving, who’s admittedly been an explosive option that the Buccaneers are lucky to have. And then came along Sean Tucker, who put up 136 yards and a touchdown in Week 6 in White’s absence, leading head coach Todd Bowles to say the backfield would be a three-headed dragon for the rest of the year. Split backfields are usually something to avoid in fantasy, and while White finished as the RB4 last season, he is currently only the RB25.
Has White been a less efficient runner than his counterparts? Sure. But that’s not what led him to be a high-end RB1 last season. He was tied for the 2nd highest rushing volume of any RB last year but only yielded the 17th most points from those rush attempts and 32nd in yards per attempt. White’s production comes through the air, where last season he procured nearly exactly as many fantasy points from receiving as he did rushing.
It’s been a slower start to the year for his receiving work as Chris Godwin and Mike Evans had been lighting it up, but the door is open for White now with both of those receivers slated to miss significant time. As other teams like the Jets, Bills, and Ravens have traded for receivers, it’s a little odd that the Buccaneers have not looked to add depth at a position they’ve been reliant on this season. In these last two weeks without their star receivers, White has seen 6 targets in each game for 109 yards and 3 TDs. He had 0 receiving touchdowns until these last two weeks and was averaging less than 4 targets per game.
Despite Irving’s efficiency on the ground, White should be expected to continue being used as a check-down option or even in the slot. He has the second most yards after the catch of any running back, ahead of Alvin Kamara and Breece Hall. His YAC/reception is the 3rd highest rate across all positions, behind Bijan Robinson (2nd) and Chris Godwin (1st). If he continues to see passing work like he has the past two weeks, he should rocket back into the bonified RB1 caliber back that he was last season. Upcoming schedule: KC, SF, BYE, NYG, CAR.
SELL
Jordan Love (QB – GB)
Love’s trade value might have taken a small hit with his groin injury that has him listed as day-to-day, but he’s still averaging 19.6 fantasy points in the games he’s played. With the committee of receivers around him, Love has thrown for over 1,500 and 15 touchdowns in the five full games he’s played (neglecting this past week).
The most concerning thing about Love is obviously his mobility. After suffering a sprained MCL at the end of the game in Week 1 against the Eagles, he managed to make a skeptically quick recovery and only miss two games before returning in Week 4. Even though the groin injury is seemingly short-term, Love’s time to throw is 20th in the league. This results in him making throws under pressure that are either inaccurate or ill-advised throws. His receivers have bailed him out on a number of these, but this is the reason why he’s thrown 9 interceptions in only six games (at least 1 per game). This is tied for the most interceptions in the league, and he missed 2 (really almost 3) games. His QBR is 19th in the league at 91.8, lower than that of Trevor Lawrence (93.9).
He’s had enough yardage and touchdowns to offset these mistakes, but they’ve come against a schedule that ranks 13th in fantasy points allowed to QBs. His remaining schedule ranks 30th. He has a 61.7% completion rate, 31st among QBs with 60 or more passing attempts. These are major red flags that signal unreliable QB play that he has been lucky to have been working out against an easier schedule, and he doesn’t have the rushing ability to add to his production. Upcoming schedule: DET, BYE, CHI, SF, MIA.
Darnell Mooney (WR – ATL)
Mooney is the current WR13, logging 500 yards and 4 TDs across these first 8 weeks of the season. He’s coming off an 18.6-point game from 86 yards and a touchdown on only 4 receptions. Kirk Cousins and the Falcons have thrown for the 5th most passing yards and 66th most receiving touchdowns in the league.
The main issue with Mooney is his consistency, or rather lack thereof. While his 110 fantasy points land him at the 13th most, they mostly come from big games in Weeks 5 and 8, where he finished as the WR3 and WR13. In the remaining games, he failed to break WR18 and finished as WR33 or worse in 4 games. He’s a classic case of a boom/bust asset, which makes starting him a risky play every week.
Atlanta’s remaining schedule is 20th in points allowed to WRs, and in the last four weeks, Kyle Pitts has nearly doubled the number of targets he saw in the first four weeks. Despite being targeted 60 times this year, Mooney has only 37 receptions. This 61.7% completion rate is 92nd among WRs with at least 20 targets. Look to sell this unreliable asset to someone needy at WR. Upcoming schedule: DAL, NO, DEN, BYE, LAC.
Evan Engram (TE – JAX)
Engram’s trade value took a major jump with the recent injuries to Brian Thomas Jr. and Christian Kirk. Even though he’s only played four games, he’s averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game, which is the 11th most across all TEs. He’s caught 19 of his 20 targets in the past 3 weeks for 173 yards and a touchdown that came this past weekend.
While I’ve come across statistics that show Engram’s productivity increases significantly during the weeks that Kirk is injured, those weeks in previous years have two major factors: Calvin Ridley and Travis Etienne. Of course, Ridley isn’t on the team anymore, and Etienne has been hurt himself, but the reason for Engram’s success during those periods is that the Jaguars were still able to keep defenses honest with the run game and have a wideout that spread the secondary levels.
The Jags are middle of the pack (14th) in rushing yards from scrimmage, mostly due to being 22nd in rushing attempts. Thomas Jr. has replaced Ridley’s role out wide, but now that he’s out, opponents will likely be able to key in on Engram as the team’s number-one target. It may be slightly more difficult to sell Engram off after all the TE success this past weekend, but some managers may have high expectations for the reigning TE2. Upcoming schedule: PHI, MIN, DET, BYE, HOU.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Feature Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter)