We blinked and it’s Week 10 already! The league has taken shape with a lot of the cream already rising to the top. Meanwhile, some of the teams we thought were legit contenders might just be frauds (looking at you, Buffalo) while some of the squads we counted out in the early going are starting to gain ground on the rest of the league (#SKOL, Vikings)! After posting a 5-2 record for a modest 2.9 unit profit, Brett Ford (@FadeThatMan) once again has the difficult job of mining through the endless aisles of player props available for wager and attempting to find the best spots to make some money in this week’s Educated Bets. Here are your best NFL player prop bets for Week 10.
Please note: Listed lines and odds are subject to change from sportsbook to sportsbook, and may have moved since the article was written and posted.
Rashid Shaheed over 32.5 receiving yards (-115)
- One of my favorite NFL Week 10 prop bets to consider is the New Orleans Saints speedster Rashid Shaheed burning the Minnesota Vikings defense for over 32.5 receiving yards. The Vikings have been one of the most targeted pass defenses this season, and I’m not going to stop now.
- Shaheed has gone over this line in five of nine games so far this season, including four games in which Shaheed exceeded this amount of yardage on just one of his receptions.
- The Vikings defense blitzes at the league’s highest rate, increasing the probability that members of the secondary could be left on an island against Shaheed. Though Derek Carr has historically struggled against the blitz, the opportunity is ripe for him to find Shaheed on at least one deep ball.
- Through just nine games, Minnesota’s secondary has allowed 15 receptions of 30 yards or more so far this season. Speedy slot types similar to Shaheed, like Khadarel Hodge and Jayden Reed, have had success against this defense in nearly identical roles.
Mike Evans over 62.5 receiving yards (-115)
- As I was scrolling through this week’s slate looking for the best player props of Week 10, I stumbled upon this gem. Mike Evans against the Tennessee Titans. It is just…chef’s kiss good.
- Evans has reached this total in just four out of nine games so far this year, but lines up against a Titans defense that has allowed monster games to alpha wide receivers on a near-weekly basis. The Titans’ defense has allowed the second-most completions and the fifth-most receiving yards to wide receivers so far this season.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been extremely concentrated in their passing attack this season, especially lately. Evans, Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer, Rachaad White, and Cade Otton have all been mainstays in the Tampa Bay offense while no other skill position player has taken more than 10 snaps over the past two weeks.
- Evans and Godwin have combined for nearly half of Baker Mayfield‘s targets so far this season, though Evans has been far more efficient from yardage standpoint, registering more than 125 more yards on three fewer receptions.
DeAndre Hopkins over 61.5 receiving yards (-115)
- On the other side of this game, we’re going to run it back with DeAndre Hopkins gaining more than 61.5 yards through the air. Since Will Levis took over as the Titans’ starting quarterback, Hopkins has seen an uptick in targets and production.
- Levis threw to Hopkins 11 times in the Titans’ Thursday Night football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, and though Nuk only brought in four catches, he still managed to record 60 receiving yards. Levis has shown trust in the veteran wide receiver, airing the ball out for him and giving him a chance to make plays downfield.
- Tampa Bay has been a pass-funnel defense all season with a stout front seven led by defensive lineman Vita Vea. On Sunday, the team will likely be without starting defensive backs Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis, which could leave Hopkins with a matchup advantage on the outside.
- With one of the league’s best target-to-routes-run rates, especially against man coverage, and the way that the Buccaneers defense has plugged the run and forced production through the air. Hopkins should be in line for a large number of targets for the second consecutive week.
Marquise Brown over 4.5 receptions (-130)
- The return of Kyler Murray may not have an immediate impact on the Cardinals’ chances of winning, but it should definitely impact the production of their top wide receiver. Hollywood Brown will suit up alongside Murray for just the eighth time in two seasons after Murray went down in 2022, and look to pick up where the duo left off.
- In seven games with Murray under center, Brown averaged over 10 targets per game and pulled in seven catches per game as well. Since arriving in Arizona, Brown has caught at least five passes in a game on 11 occasions.
- Ranked 14th in the NFL with 77 targets, Brown has continued to get elite usage, but has managed just 42 receptions with a lot of the passes intended for him being uncatchable. Now with Murray, Brown stands to see an improvement in the passes that he receives, increasing his likelihood of catching a pass when he’s targeted.
- The Falcons defense ranks 28th in the NFL in pass defense DVOA, leaving a lot to be desired. Murray and Brown should be able to connect with ease. The only thing that might be worse than the Falcons’ defense in this game is the Cardinals’ defense, meaning that game script could favor the Arizona passing game as well.
Christian McCaffrey over 102.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110)
- The San Francisco 49ers went reeling into their bye week, losing three-straight games before mercifully receiving a week off to recalibrate. Now on Sunday, the 49ers head back to the East Coast to face the Jacksonville Jaguars.
- San Francisco began the season with five-consecutive victories. In each of those games, Christian McCaffrey recorded at least 18 carries and at least 21 touches. In the 49ers three losses coming into the bye week, McCaffrey carried the ball a maximum of 15 times and did not reach 20 total touches in any of those games. The moral of the story: feed CMC.
- McCaffrey has reached this total in five out of eight games so far this season, and 13 times since joining the 49ers in the middle of last season.
- In the two games prior to the bye week, McCaffrey was on the field for nearly every single snap. His touches were only down because the Niners allowed Brock Purdy to throw the ball 30 or more times in each contest (something he had only done four times in his career prior to those two games).
Joe Burrow anytime TD (+380)
- My biggest long shot among my Week 10 NFL player props, the bet is for Joe Burrow to find the end zone on his own, rushing (or receiving) a touchdown this week as the Cincinnati Bengals host the Houston Texans.
- Burrow looked wonky in the first six weeks of the season, especially from a mobility standpoint, as he battled a lower-body injury. Since the Bengals’ bye in Week 7, Burrow has rushed the ball a season-high five and six times in the team’s two most recent outings.
- Though he may not be the fastest guy on the squad, Burrow is one of those “deceivingly athletic” types that can maneuver his way into open space when he feels a pocket collapsing. In three seasons, Burrow has rushed for 10 total touchdowns.
- The Houston Texans rank in the bottom third of the league with just 15 sacks so far this season, indicating that Burrow could definitely escape this pass rush and create with his legs.
Tony Pollard anytime TD (-160)
- The Dallas Cowboys have been neglecting Tony Pollard so far this season. Pollard has not scored a touchdown since Week 1 of the NFL season when he found the paint twice (against the same New York Giants that he will face in Week 10).
- Pollard is due to find the end zone, and the Cowboys owe him some love. Pollard has earned 40 red zone touches but has found the paint just twice all year. No other Dallas skill position player has more than 10 red zone opportunities.
- Mike McCarthy struggled in the red zone last week, and much of the criticism was a lack of running plays called down close to the goal line. It would make sense for McCarthy to lean more heavily on Pollard this week as the Cowboys draw nearer to the end zone.
- Dallas is favored by a whopping 17 points going into this game and should have control of the contest from the very beginning. Game script will likely favor the rushing attack making Pollard all the more likely to finally score again.
Stefon Diggs over 6.5 receptions (-135)
- If there’s one person in the Buffalo Bills locker room that I would not want to upset (any more than he already is) it’s Stefon Diggs. The Bills have lost three of their last five games, and Diggs, known for being vocal and sometimes discontent, is probably not very happy.
- So what better way to make your alpha wide receiver happy than by filling his stat sheet with targets and receptions? In the three games coming immediately after a Bills’ loss this season, Diggs has at least seven receptions in each of them.
- Diggs is averaging 10.8 targets per game, and will face a Broncos’ defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in pass defense DVOA.
- Stefon Diggs is matchup proof, and game-script proof. In the Bills’ two blowout wins over the Las Vegas Raiders and the Washington Commanders, Diggs recorded at least seven catches in each game. He leads the NFL with 70 receptions and 97 targets and is one of the most reliable receivers on the market.
- Coming off a massive win over division rival Kansas City Chiefs, the Denver Broncos are due for some regression back to the mean. Earlier this season, Denver allowed massive stat lines to alpha receivers such as DJ Moore (eight receptions, 131 yards) and Tyreek Hill (nine receptions, 157 yards), so they’re definitely exploitable.
So far this season, the picks given in this column have been average, going 32-32 through nine weeks. However, with a few long odds bets hitting, my picks have generated a profit of 10.11 units (meaning a bettor that placed $10 on every posted play would be up $101.10). Last week’s solid performance allows us as bettors to potentially scale up the unit size slightly and continue our climb to generating as much profit as possible as the season rolls along.
There are 18 weeks of football in the regular season alone, not to mention the playoffs. There’s no need to wager the entire bankroll in one week. However, as you accumulate winnings, don’t be afraid to incrementally increase unit size. Create a plan and stick to it. There’s no reason to go crazy on just one football Sunday.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)