After 10 weeks of football, bettors who have tailed Educated Bets have stayed in the black, posting a profit of 5.51 units over the course of the season. However, last week was a dud as most of our picks just didn’t pan out. It’s back to the drawing board for the Week 11 slate as Brett Ford (@FadeThatMan) will attempt to bounce back by mining through the endless aisles of player props available for wager and find the best spots to make some money in this week’s Educated Bets. Here are your best NFL player prop bets for Week 11.
Please note: Listed lines and odds are subject to change from sportsbook to sportsbook, and may have moved since the article was written and posted.
Joshua Dobbs over 29.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Since joining the Minnesota Vikings, Joshua Dobbs has been incredible, leading the team to a pair of victories in each of the last two weeks. He’s shown his versatility as a dual-threat quarterback rushing for over 40 yards in each of his games with the Vikings.
- Dobbs will face a Denver Broncos defense that has been subject of some scrutiny, especially against the run. The Broncos are averaging 158.3 rushing yards allowed per game and giving up over 5.0 yards per carry while Denver ranks dead last in rush defense DVOA.
- The Vikings have installed some designed runs for Dobbs who has also created plays on his own with his legs. Now with Alexander Mattison potentially missing this game with a concussion suffered in Week 10, Minnesota may rely even more upon their new mobile quarterback.
Jaylen Warren anytime touchdown (+290)
- Ask yourself a question – when’s the last time you saw a starting running back on a team favored to win listed at near +300 odds for an anytime touchdown prop? Jaylen Warren is the Pittsburgh Steelers’ starting running back. They made it official last week.
- Warren rewarded the Pittsburgh brass with a career day, rushing 15 times for 101 yards and a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers as the Steelers came away with a narrow victory.
- Over the course of the season, Warren has eight red zone touches. Three of them came last week (compared to Harris’ two red zone touches).
- The Steelers enter the weekend as a -1.5 point favorite as the Cleveland Browns will start with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center after Deshaun Watson was sidelined for the season with a shoulder injury.
- In his prior start this season against the Baltimore Ravens, DTR was historically bad. The Browns crossed midfield just three times and managed just three points on a field goal early in the game. Thompson-Robinson threw for 121 yards on 19-for-36 (52.8%) passing and tossed three interceptions. Needless to say, the Steelers should have a positive game script throughout and lean more on their running game than usual.
Rachaad White under 44.5 rushing yards (+100)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have struggled to run the ball this season. The blocking has not been great up front which has made moving the ball on the ground very difficult for the Tampa Bay running backs.
- White has averaged just 3.3 yards per carry so far this season, including four games with less than 3.0 yards per carry throughout. White has reached the 45-yard milestone just four times so far this season, though he has topped this total in each of his last two games.
- The San Francisco 49ers may not be as elite against the run as they are against the pass, but their stout front seven is enough to make me think that White will not hit this number. Just last week, San Francisco held Travis Etienne to just 35 yards rushing and should repeat such a performance at home on Sunday.
- As 12-point underdogs, it’s clear that Tampa Bay does not match up well against this 49ers squad, and if things go as Vegas is predicting, the game script will have the Bucs leaning heavily on their pass game once again.
Nico Collins over 50.5 receiving yards (-115)
Tank Dell over 54.5 receiving yards (-115)
- I couldn’t decide which of these two Houston Texans’ receiving props that I liked more, so I took both. Dell and Collins are both in prime position to generate production against an Arizona Cardinals’ defense that has been very mediocre so far this year.
- Arizona ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA this season and has struggled against dynamic pass-catchers like Amari Cooper, Ja’Marr Chase, and Cooper Kupp. Though Collins and Dell aren’t quite to that level, the pair have both flashed some real talent and chemistry with rookie quarterback C. J. Stroud so far this season.
- Last week’s outstanding performer, Noah Brown, is likely to miss this game with an injury freeing up a large number of snaps, routes, and targets in the Texans’ offense. Running back Dameon Pierce could be out as well, leaving the Texans with one less weapon and forcing them to concentrate their offensive workload even more.
- Collins and Dell have both topped this total in five out of eight games so far this season, and Dell has done so in three of his last four.
Calvin Ridley over 48.5 receiving yards (-115)
Calvin Ridley 60+ receiving yards (+145)
Calvin Ridley 100+ receiving yards (+700)
- One of my favorite things to do is target alpha wide receivers against the Tennessee Titans secondary, and this week’s receiver du jour is Calvin Ridley. Though Ridley has struggled more times than not recently, posting absolute duds in two of his last three contests, this is a get-right spot for the Jacksonville Jaguars’ wideout.
- Ridley has shown the capability to put up monster games against lackluster opponents, posting 100-yard performances against a below-average Indianapolis Colts’ pass defense in Week 1 and an injury-ridden Buffalo Bills secondary in London.
- Since the Titans traded defensive leader Kevin Byard to the Philadelphia Eagles, the squad has given up huge games to outside wide receivers, including a 143-yard performance from Mike Evans last week. As one of the largest pass-funnel defenses in the league, expect Ridley to be peppered with targets.
- Head coach Doug Pederson has talked about how good Calvin Ridley has been despite his lack of production, talking about getting him involved early and often on Sunday.
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) November 14, 2023
A tough week last week after a profitable Week 9 perfectly demonstrates the volatility that consistent NFL wagering can entail. Be sure to limit bet sizes and don’t overextend or chase losses. A consistent, disciplined approach will yield dividends along the course of a full season.
There are 18 weeks of football in the regular season alone, not to mention the playoffs. There’s no need to wager the entire bankroll in one week. However, as you accumulate winnings, don’t be afraid to incrementally increase unit size. Create a plan and stick to it. There’s no reason to go crazy on just one football Sunday.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)