Week 11 was a huge bounce-back week after a lackluster Week 10, as the Educated Bets crew went 7-1 for an absurd profit of +14.35 units. Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley came through for the crew with a 100-yard performance, cashing all three ladder picks, including 100+ receiving yards for a +700 cash. Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren had an electric 74-yard touchdown run for a +290 cash and both Houston Texans wide receivers Tank Dell and Nico Collins reached their totals while Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White got all his yards through the air and stayed quiet on the ground.
Brett Ford (@FadeThatMan) is looking to run it back as he works to find the best spots to make some money in this week’s Educated Bets. Here are the best NFL player prop bets for Week 12.
Please note: Listed lines and odds are subject to change from sportsbook to sportsbook, and may have moved since the article was written and posted.
Derrick Henry over 69.5 rushing yards -110
Derrick Henry anytime TD +110
- The Tennessee Titans have struggled over the past several weeks, but have a chance at what could be a get-right game when they face the Carolina Panthers on Sunday afternoon. With three consecutive losses, Mike Vrabel is coaching for his job as the Titans sit at (3-7) with little hope of making the playoffs. A loss to the lowly Panthers would almost certainly seal Vrabel’s fate of being let go by the Titans. He needs to win this game.
- The Panthers have THE WORST run defense in the NFL based on DVOA, and have allowed 16 rushing touchdowns so far this season. Derrick Henry might be the most obvious anytime touchdown scorer on this slate. I was shocked to see his anytime touchdown listed at plus-odds.
- To be fair, Henry has struggled in back-to-back games, totaling just 62 rushing yards on 21 carries against the Bucs and Jaguars, combined. However, both of those teams are pass-funnel defenses, ranking in the top five in the NFL in rush defense DVOA. This game should have a completely different feel as the Titans should be able to get what they want on the ground and not rely on rookie quarterback Will Levis.
- Henry has reached this yards threshold in five of his 10 games this season, including every game this season in which he has carried the ball at least 16 times. In a run-friendly game script, Henry should carry the ball at least 16 times and should reach this yardage total quickly.
- Despite his recent struggles, Derrick Henry still has 20 red-zone opportunities this season, including five of the Titans’ 10 (yes, they’ve only recorded 10 snaps) from inside the 5-yard line. Tennessee still relies on its franchise running back to punch it in from short distance, which he should be able to do on Sunday.
Jaylen Warren over 48.5 rushing yards (-115)
- We’re going back to the well with the diminutive Pittsburgh running back. After cashing in with a touchdown last week, we’re going to jump on Warren’s rushing yards over in Week 12 against a below-average Bengals’ rushing defense. As long as linebacker Logan Wilson doesn’t drop his hips on Warren’s ankles, he should be good for it.
- The Bengals rank 31st in the NFL in rush defense DVOA and have allowed big rushing days to running backs as middling in talent as Devin Singletary. Cincinnati can be had on the ground, and with the Steelers’ former running back coach Eddie Faulkner taking over as the offensive coordinator, it makes sense for the Black and Gold to lean heavily on the running game on Sunday.
- Warren has taken over as the starting running back in Pittsburgh, and until the sportsbooks start pricing him like it we will likely continue to take advantage of the edge provided. Though Najee Harris has handled more carries, over the past two weeks Warren has outgained Harris, 230-117, on the ground nearly doubling his rushing output in their last two games combined.
- With a knack for explosive runs and long gains, Warren should be able to crack this total with relative ease. The running back has topped this total in all but one game this season in which he carried the ball at least nine times. With his running back coach taking over calling plays, expect him to get a heavy workload.
A.J. Brown over 6.5 receptions (+110)
- The Philadelphia Eagles host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in what was supposed to be a battle of juggernaut offenses prior to the season, but now projects as a bit of a mismatch as the Bills have underperformed in a lot of ways so far this season.
- One of Buffalo’s biggest letdowns this season has been its defense, as star linebacker Matt Milano and cornerback Tre’Davious White have both been placed on injured reserve with significant injuries. Buffalo’s starting secondary is struggling with four starters at least questionable, with safeties Taylor Rapp and Micah Hyde alongside cornerbacks Taron Johnson and Dane Jackson all carrying injury designations into Week 12.
- Brown was held down last week as the Eagles had a hard time connecting on offense against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11. The last time Brown had a down game this season, he went off for 131 yards the next game (beginning a six-game streak of at least 125 receiving yards).
- In the Bills’ last game against a quarterback not named Zach Wilson, the team allowed eight receptions and a touchdown to the Denver Broncos’ top wide receiver, Courtland Sutton. Before that, Tee Higgins went off for 110 yards on eight catches. The Bills seem to struggle with big-bodied wide receivers. Brown fits this mold pretty darn well.
Sorry we’re not offering our usual volume of player props, but with a holiday weekend and a smaller Sunday slate, the bets on board were a bit limited as well. Thank you as always for reading and good luck with your bets!
Just because we went crazy with the winning last week doesn’t mean we go crazy with the betting this week. The NFL is volatile, and so is the sports betting market. Be sure to limit bet sizes and don’t overextend or chase losses. A consistent, disciplined approach will yield dividends along the course of a full season.
There are 18 weeks of football in the regular season alone, not to mention the playoffs. There’s no need to wager the entire bankroll in one week. However, as you accumulate winnings, don’t be afraid to incrementally increase unit size. Create a plan and stick to it. There’s no reason to go all-in on just one football Sunday.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)