Educated Bets – Week 13 Player Props

Educated Bets has gone 10-2 (+16 units) the last two weeks. Brett Ford (@FadeThatMan) is back again with his Educated Bets series to highlight his favorite #NFL player prop bets for Week 13.

Over the past two weeks, Educated Bets have gone (10-2), pulling in over 16.0 units of profit for those that have bet every pick. Week 12 was highlighted by a renaissance effort from Derrick Henry, as The King rushed for over 70 yards and two scores (we only needed one) to cash both player props. Jaylen Warren added just enough yardage to give us a win by the hook (that NEVER happens!) to improve to 3-1 on the week. We’re headed back to the drawing board this weekend to try and keep the momentum going.

Brett Ford (@FadeThatMan) is looking to run it back as he works to find the best spots to make some money in this week’s Educated Bets. Here are the best NFL player prop bets for Week 13.

Please note: Listed lines and odds are subject to change from sportsbook to sportsbook, and may have moved since the article was written and posted.


Brett’s Picks


Josh Downs over 50.5 receiving yards (-110)

  • If you ask me how I begin my week of Educated Bets research, here are the steps I typically take…
    • Step 1: Find the Tennessee Titans on the schedule, and identify their opponent.
    • Step 2: Pick a favorite wide receiver, preferably one who was heavily targeted in previous weeks.
    • Step 3: Bet the over on that receiver’s yards prop.
  • Josh Downs was targeted a season-high 13 times in Week 12’s victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but pulled in just five catches for 43 yards. We’ll assume this uptick in usage was a function of the Indianapolis Colts coming out of their Week 11 bye, and that all metrics in question should remain relatively stable against another bad pass defense in Week 13. Downs should therefore be in line for some positive regression.
  • Slot receivers have found success against the Titans’ secondary, with players like Khadarel Hodge, Chris Godwin and Diontae Johnson all finding success against the unit. Downs has lined up frequently in the slot for the Colts. His usage should be similar to Michael Pittman Jr. but his yardage prop is nearly 25 yards less than his counterpart.


Pat Freiermuth over 3.5 receptions (-105)

  • It was a career week for Pat Freiermuth against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 12 as he caught nine of 11 targets for 120 yards. His production in that one game against Cincinnati matched his season total for receptions entering the game and tripled his yardage total for the season.
  • Freiermuth’s significantly increased usage is clearly an outlier performance, but there may be some aspect to it that could become sustainable from week-to-week. The Steelers got rid of Matt Canada, and all of the sudden, quarterback Kenny Pickett threw to Freiermuth 11 times in one game. However, Pittsburgh has historically peppered the tight end against the Bengals (as have several other teams), and that plan has been quite effective.
  • The Steelers face an Arizona Cardinals team that has struggled against opposing tight ends for most of this season. Arizona has allowed a touchdown catch, more than four catches, or both to opposing tight ends in four of their last five games. The only exception was Kyle Pitts, whom Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith has some generations-deep grudge against.
  • In his career, Freiermuth has caught four or more passes 19 times in 38 games played, he’s just only done it once this season. For our sake, let’s hope that the increase in his usage was intentional and that the Steelers plan to integrate him more heavily into the game plan in another plus matchup in Week 13.


Evan Engram over 42.5 receiving yards (-120)
Evan Engram 60+ receiving yards (+200)
Evan Engram 80+ receiving yards (+500)
Evan Engram 100+ receiving yards (+1100)


  • Evan Engram has suited up for all 11 games this season for the Jacksonville Jaguars. He’s been targeted at least five times in every contest and pulled in at least four catches in each game.
  • Burn the trends. We’re taking all the Evan Engram props. We’re even taking him to score. The Cincinnati Bengals have been hot garbage against tight ends this season, allowing guys like Pat Freiermuth, Dalton Kincaid, and George Kittle to do practically whatever they wanted in their contests.
  • I’m not sure if there’s such a thing as a tight end-funnel defense; if there is, that’s what the Bengals are. The Cincinnati cornerbacks have been solid for the most part, while the linebackers and safeties have struggled against the big fellas in the middle of the field.
  • The Bengals rank 31st in the NFL in receiving yardage allowed to opposing tight ends, giving up over 70 yards a game to the position. Only the Denver Broncos have had a worse go of it against the tight end position group.
  • Engram has shown his ceiling, reaching the 100-yard plateau twice with the Jaguars last season. We know he’s capable of hitting the mark, so long as Jacksonville integrates him heavily into the gameplan in the same way that previous Bengals opponents have done with their tight ends.
  • Though he hasn’t found the end zone yet this season, it might not be a bad idea to fire up Engram’s anytime touchdown prop at +235. We’ll stick to the ladder though for this Sunday, at least in the article.


Elijah Moore over 3.5 receptions (+130) 

  • Elijah Moore might be the most excited Cleveland Browns receiver on the team after the squad announced that it would be starting the ELITE veteran Joe Flacco for Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Rams. Moore and Flacco will reunite after teaming together with the New York Jets in 2022.

  • In the first three games of the 2022 season, Moore and Flacco connected for 12 total receptions on 21 combined targets showing some decent chemistry for a pair of guys that had just a few weeks of preseason to get to know one another. With Moore now the most familiar pass-catcher on the squad for the veteran, Flacco may be seeking him out more often than not.
  • Cleveland has used Moore pretty extensively over its last three games, peppering the slot receiver with a combined 25 targets over that span. Moore has caught 14 of those passes, including a six-reception game against Pittsburgh two weeks ago.
  • The usage has been up recently, and the short to intermediate routes that Moore typically runs align with what the Browns are likely to do with Flacco (and what Flacco tends to do on his own). While Amari Cooper and Cedric Tillman will be running intermediate to deep routes, Moore will be hanging out in short yardage areas, ready for a dump-off from the original Joe Cool.
  • Flacco is infamous for his impatience in the pocket and tendency to check it down, even in the most dire of situations. Remember “Hey diddle, diddle, Ray Rice up the middle?” Let’s hope he finds Moore four times.

Through 12 weeks of NFL action, Educated Bets are hitting at a 52.4% clip, going 44-40 so far this season. Because of some long-odds tickets cashing in, Educated Bets are up 21.91 units, meaning a $10 bettor would be up over $200 on the season. We’ll do our best to find the best spots to attack each week and keep rolling with winning plays.

There are 18 weeks of football in the regular season alone, not to mention the playoffs. There’s no need to wager the entire bankroll in one week. However, as you accumulate winnings, don’t be afraid to incrementally increase unit size. Create a plan and stick to it. There’s no reason to go all-in on just one football Sunday.

Do you or a loved one have a problem with gambling? Call 1-800-426-2537 for confidential help and support.

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)

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