Victory laps aren’t sexy…but man, they sure are fun!
Since Week 12, picks featured in Educated Bets have gone 14-5, with a standard one-unit bettor profiting over 22 units in the past three weeks combined. For the second time in three weeks, a Jacksonville Jaguars pass-catcher came through for us with a yardage ladder, as Evan Engram went for over 80 yards receiving to cash three out of four ladder bets. Elijah Moore pitched in with a solid day partnering with his old buddy Joe Flacco to put the column at 4-3 with a couple of long-odds winners in Week 13. Now with an interesting slate on tap, it’s time to dig into Week 14 and find the best spots to place our hard-earned money.
D.J. Moore over 70.5 receiving yards (-110)
- At one point this season it looked as if the Detroit Lions might have a good defense; maybe I was just seeing things. Over the last four weeks, the Lions have allowed 121 combined points, surrendering 28, 22, 26 and 38 points to opposing offenses in each of the last four weeks. Gross.
- In each of those games, alpha wide receivers went off against the Lions’ secondary unit that just hasn’t posed much resistance to top elite-tier pass-catchers. Keenan Allen, Chris Olave, Christian Watson AND D.J. Moore have each gone for at least 90 yards against them in the last four weeks.
- There’s no reason to think Moore can’t repeat his Week 11 performance, when he posted seven catches for 96 yards and a touchdown on just nine targets against this squad. Since Justin Fields returned from injury, Moore has 18 catches on 22 targets for 230 receiving yards and a score.
- In what should be another high-scoring affair between these two teams, 70.5 yards for Moore is something that could be attainable in the first half alone.
Rachaad White under 60.5 rushing yards (-110)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had struggled all season to run the football until they faced off against the Indianapolis Colts and Carolina Panthers in back-to-back weeks. Rachaad White posted a combined 184 rushing yards between the two games and his yards per carry surged from 3.25 to a whopping 3.7 (which is still not even close to impressive). The point remains: the Bucs are still not good at running the football; they’ve just had a couple of optimal performances against bad competition two weeks in a row.
- This is the ultimate sell-high spot for White’s rushing total. With outlier performances in each of the past two weeks, sportsbooks are counting on casual bettors to look at this line and immediately reach for the over. However, White has reached 60 yards rushing just four times this season. The Tampa Bay rushing offense ranks 27th in the NFL in DVOA while sitting dead last in yards per attempt.
- The Atlanta Falcons have boasted a middling run defense, ranking 16th in the NFL in rush defense DVOA while allowing the 11th fewest yards per carry on the season. Head coach Arthur Smith will likely try to take the air out of the ball (as he nearly always does) and try to win the time of possession battle, potentially limiting White’s opportunities.
Christian McCaffrey over 116.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)
- CMC is a cheat code. That’s it. That’s the bullet point.
- Christian McCaffrey has topped this total in each of his last two games, including two weeks ago in a 31-13 road victory over these same Seattle Seahawks.
- Seattle has a below-average rushing defense this season, ranking 22nd in the league in run defense DVOA while allowing the 12th most yards per attempt to opposing rushers. They’ve also allowed opposing running backs to catch a lot of passes this season, including breakout games through the air for Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson. Even Pierre Strong popped off a long catch-and-run against the Seahawks.
- The San Francisco 49ers lightened the load on McCaffrey for a portion of the season and consequently lost football games. They will not take their foot off the gas, especially against a division rival. The excerpt below is from the Week 10 iteration of Educated Bets, and it applies once again this weekend:
“San Francisco began the season with five-consecutive victories. In each of those games, Christian McCaffrey recorded at least 18 carries and at least 21 touches. In the 49ers three losses coming into the bye week, McCaffrey carried the ball a maximum of 15 times and did not reach 20 total touches in any of those games. The moral of the story: feed CMC.”
Dalton Kincaid over 39.5 receiving yards (-115)
Dalton Kincaid over 49.5 receiving yards (+150)
Dalton Kincaid over 69.5 receiving yards (+390)
Dalton Kincaid over 89.5 receiving yards (+950)
- Can we hit a ladder for the third time in four weeks? We’re certainly going to try! This time, it’s Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid. With the strength of the Kansas City Chiefs secondary on the outside, we’re looking to attack the weak links in the defense, which are the injury-riddled linebacking corps and the safeties.
- Kansas City will be without linebackers Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill and is also likely to be without starting free safety Bryan Cook, allowing Kincaid to matchup against backups at several different positions within the defense.
- Kincaid has demonstrated that he can handle a heavy workload with solid performances against the Cincinnati Bengals and New England Patriots earlier this season. Both of those games were pass-heavy game scripts as the Bills had to play from behind, which could also be the case in Kansas City this weekend.
- Dawson Knox is potentially returning after an IR stint, but the Bills played a large majority of their snaps in 12-personnel before Knox got hurt, meaning that Kincaid should not be losing much playing time, especially the way he has been producing.
- Kansas City has not played against as formidable a pass-catching tight end and quarterback duo like Josh Allen and Kincaid yet this season, with the closest comparison being Kirk Cousins and T. J. Hockenson when they faced the Vikings, though their defense was at near full strength in that contest.
- As we did last week with Evan Engram, we’ll mention Kincaid’s touchdown odds, as well. He currently sits at +185 to reach the end zone, and that should be in consideration as well; for now, we’ll just ride with the yardage ladder.
Josh Allen over 32.5 rushing yards (-120)
- If the Bills lose this game, they’re basically eliminated from the AFC playoff hunt. They will do everything in their power to win this football game, and that likely means Allen putting his body on the line and playing some of his infamous “Hero Ball” to get the job done.
- As mentioned in the Kincaid write-up, the Chiefs are without a pair of high-caliber starting linebackers and will look to some backups to fill the void in the middle of the field. Allen will likely look to take advantage.
- Allen has topped this rushing total in four out of five meetings against the Chiefs. The one time he missed the total, he rushed 12 times and gained 32 yards. He’s hitting this number on Sunday.
Through 12 weeks of NFL action, Educated Bets are hitting at a 52.7% clip, going 48-43 so far this season. Because of some long-odds tickets cashing in, Educated Bets are up 27.91 units, meaning a $10 bettor would be up over $250 on the season. We’ll do our best to find the best spots to attack each week and keep rolling with winning plays.
There are 18 weeks of football in the regular season alone, not to mention the playoffs. There’s no need to wager the entire bankroll in one week. However, as you accumulate winnings, don’t be afraid to incrementally increase unit size. Create a plan and stick to it. There’s no reason to go all-in on just one football Sunday.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)