Some weeks you’re the windshield and some weeks you’re the bug. After three straight weeks of being the windshield, I (and anyone who followed Educated Bets) was the bug in Week 14, winning just one of our wagers. After winning over 20 units the previous three weeks combined, we were due for some regression, but now that it’s behind us it’s time to get back to winning. Brett Ford (@FadeThatMan) has put together another week’s worth of the best NFL player props for Week 15 to earn that cash back!
Jahmyr Gibbs over 50.5 rushing yards (-110)
Jahmyr Gibbs over 81.5 rushing yards (+500)
- In one of the most lopsided positional matchups of the week, the Detroit Lions’ fourth-ranked rushing offense takes on the Denver Broncos’ 31st-ranked rushing defense on Saturday night. Jahmyr Gibbs could potentially have a monstrous game.
- Denver has had three consecutive decent weeks against the rush, not allowing a single player to reach more than 75 rushing yards in any of their prior three contests. However, they still rank 31st in the NFL in rush defense DVOA. That’s how bad they were to begin the season.
- In those three games, none of the Broncos’ opponents had a back as explosive or an offensive line as dominant as they will face on Saturday lining up across from Gibbs and the Lions. James Cook, a back that is similar to Gibbs (though slightly less explosive) went for 109 rushing yards a few weeks ago on just 12 carries. It’s very possible that Gibbs could reach a similar line.
- David Montgomery is back to health and running well, but in Week 14 we saw the Lions give the ball to Gibbs 11 times while handing off to Montgomery 10 times, the first time this season that both backs were fully healthy and Gibbs out-touched the veteran. In fact, Gibbs was on the field for nearly double the snaps of Montgomery, outsnapping him 41-23.
- As the season wears on and Gibbs acclimates to the offense and the NFL game more and more, I anticipate the Lions relying on him more and more heavily to carry the load in the backfield. By no means do I expect him to take over as a bellcow back, but his usage last week is indicative that he may have leap-frogged Montgomery for head honcho in the Detroit backfield.
Cooper Kupp over 75.5 receiving yards (-115)
Matthew Stafford over 267.5 passing yards (-115)
- Watching the Rams last weekend as they battled with the Ravens, it appeared clear that the Rams will keep their touch distribution relatively narrow, hammering both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp with targets.
- Kupp caught eight passes for 115 yards against a very good Baltimore Ravens defense and should look to continue feasting against a much weaker Washington Commanders secondary in Week 15. The Commanders rank 32nd in pass defense DVOA and 32nd in yards allowed per pass. They’ve been a sieve through the air.
- Stafford, Kupp, Nacua, and company should be able to carve up what has been a pretty vanilla defensive scheme since the removal of Commanders’ defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio. The Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants (led by Tommy DeVito), Dallas Cowboys, and Miami Dolphins have all lit the Washington pass defense over the past four weeks.
- Sean McVay should absolutely be able to architect an offensive scheme to expose the secondary and lead his team to a victory.
Derrick Henry over 66.5 rushing yards (-135)
- So far this season, Derrick Henry has averaged more than 20 carries per game in Tennessee Titans wins. Meanwhile, in the team’s losses, Henry has averaged only 14.5 carries per game. With the Titans playing at home against the Houston Texans who will very likely be without C.J. Stroud, Tank Dell, and Nico Collins, the odds for Henry to have a large workload are pretty good.
- In his last six games against the Texans, Henry has rushed for more than 100 yards in five of them. He’s rushed for more than 200 yards in four of those games. We all know that this defense is not quite the same as what we’ve seen in Houston in the past, but the confidence that Derrick Henry must have when he lines up against his division rivals is likely immense.
- Henry has been a stud in the final weeks of the season throughout his career. In the final five weeks of the regular season in 2022 and 2020 (Henry missed the end of 2021 with an injury), Henry has rushed for at least 100 yards in seven of those games. He just doesn’t wear down in the same way that some running backs do.
T.J. Hockenson over 52.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Nick Mullens will be the starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings on Saturday against the Cincinnati Bengals, but that shouldn’t discourage bettors from targeting Hockenson’s over props. Four of Hockenson’s five catches came on Mullens’ two fourth-quarter drives with Mullens under center last week.
- Justin Jefferson will likely be back in the lineup for the Vikings, forcing the Cincinnati secondary to shift their focus to the all-pro wideout, potentially leaving Hockenson with favorable matchups over the middle of the field.
- The Bengals have struggled against tight ends so far this season, allowing elite-caliber tight ends like George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and Dalton Kincaid to have field days against them. This matchup yielded a nice little ladder play for Educated Bets two weeks ago with Evan Engram.
- These points from Week 13 still apply:
I’m not sure if there’s such a thing as a tight end-funnel defense; if there is, that’s what the Bengals are. The Cincinnati cornerbacks have been solid for the most part, while the linebackers and safeties have struggled against the big fellas in the middle of the field.
The Bengals rank 31st in the NFL in receiving yardage allowed to opposing tight ends, giving up over 70 yards a game to the position. Only the Denver Broncos have had a worse go of it against the tight end position group.
Tyler Allgeier anytime touchdown (+370)
- Allgeier and the Atlanta Falcons have one of the best matchups of any team this week as they face off against the Carolina Panthers’ league-worst rushing defense. The Panthers still rank dead last in rushing defense DVOA heading into Week 15.
- While “starter” Bijan Robinson is listed at +125 to score a touchdown, Allgeier is nearly triple those odds, sitting at +370 on DraftKings (and likely at better odds than that on other books. SHOP AROUND!).
- Though Robinson has found the end zone more times this season, Allgeier has had significantly more opportunities in the red zone and inside the five-yard line. Allgeier has outrushed Robinson from inside the five, with six carries to Robinson’s three. In the red zone, Allgeier has rushed the ball 31 times while Robinson has recorded just 17 carries, and don’t forget Cordarelle Patterson’s five carries as well.
- Based on usage, Allgeier is who we should consider the Atlanta Falcons’ goal-line running back and definitely who we should be targeting, especially with his odds so much higher than Bijan’s to find the painted area.
With 14 weeks of NFL action in the books, Educated Bets are hitting at a near 50% clip, going 49-50 so far this season. Because of some long-odds tickets cashing in, Educated Bets are up just over 20 units, meaning a $10 bettor would be up over $200 on the season. We’ll do our best to find the best spots to attack each week and keep rolling with winning plays.
There are 18 weeks of football in the regular season alone, not to mention the playoffs. There’s no need to wager the entire bankroll in one week. However, as you accumulate winnings, don’t be afraid to incrementally increase unit size. Create a plan and stick to it. There’s no reason to go all-in on just one football Sunday.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)