Educated Bets – Week 16 Player Props

Educated Bets looks to keep lining your pockets this holiday weekend. Brett Ford (@FadeThatMan) provides his best NFL Player Prop bets for all of the Week 16 action.

It was a much-needed bounce back Week 15 for Educated Bets as picks went 4-3, including a +500 winner as Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs hit the century mark, easily clearing the ladder that we presented last week. TJ Hockenson and Cooper Kupp added solid performances to hit their overs as we went 4-3 for a 4.5 unit profit. Brett Ford (@FadeThatMan) has put together another week’s worth of the best NFL player props for Week 16, helping you to slip a couple extra gifts under your tree in the living room.


DK Metcalf over 61.5 receiving yards (-120)
DK Metcalf over 99.5 receiving yards (+380)

  • It’s time to get back to our roots: targeting the Tennessee Titans secondary with alpha wide receivers. Metcalf has proven himself to be one of the league’s best, and regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks, DK should eat.
  • We have reiterated week after week that the Titans are an exploitable defense, especially through the air. For what it’s worth, things haven’t been THAT bad recently, but the squad still has a history of allowing wild games to top wideouts.
  • Metcalf has hit over 100 yards twice this season and has topped 61.5 yards in eight games. He has seven games this season with at least eight targets and should be heavily involved in the Seahawks’ offense against this pass funnel defense on Sunday.


Joe Mixon over 46.5 rushing yards (-120)

  • The Steelers were so bad against the run last week that a guy who has not handled a meaningful carry in his three-year career steps into an 88-yard rushing performance (Trey Sermon).
  • Joe Mixon is markedly better than Sermon. And he gets a large majority of the Bengals’ carries. Mixon has topped this number in 10 games so far this season, including each of his last three.
  • Though Chase Brown has been eating into his workload a little bit recently, Mixon should be in a bell cow role again after Brown suffered a minor injury in the third quarter last week and did not return. The Bengals could be handling him with kid gloves and give Mixon a slightly heavier load.


Calvin Ridley over 55.5 receiving yards (-115)

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been highly exploitable this season, ranking at a middling 15th in pass defense DVOA but giving up the 29th most yards per attempt through the air.
  • Ridley has combined for 25 targets over the past two weeks but hasn’t hit this total in either game. That’s crazy. His usage is way too good to not reach 60 yards receiving, especially against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed big games to alpha wide receivers this season.
  • Trevor Lawrence has been wildly inaccurate the last two games, completing just 53 of 93 passes (57%) of his passes in those two contests. With a 65.9% completion rate this season and a 63.8% rate in his career, Lawrence is due for some positive regression.
  • Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis III, the Bucs’ starting corners, have been less than inspiring so far this season, especially Davis, who ranks 13th in the NFL in most completions allowed (50).


Kenneth Gainwell anytime Touchdown (+350)

  • Gainwell is due. ANALYSIS! I know, I know, I can’t just end the write-up there… hear me out. Gainwell has rushed for just two touchdowns this season but has odds three times as high as his teammate D’Andre Swift. 
  • Gainwell has earned 22 red zone carries this season, just 11 fewer than Swift. Though he’s found the end zone just twice, he has more than 35% of the running back touches inside the 20 and 40% of the running back touches inside the 10-yard line.
  • The Giants’ rushing defense is downright bad. It ranks 28th in the NFL in rush defense DVOA while allowing the third-most yards per rushing attempt this season.
  • Philadelphia is looking for a bounce-back and could come out and try to embarrass their division rival. In a blowout, Gainwell has an increased chance of scoring since the Eagles likely won’t risk the health of guys like Hurts and Swift. We can’t bank on a blowout, but there’s certainly a small added chance that the Eagles run all over the Giants.
  • The Eagles can’t Tush Push for every touchdown. Obviously, if it’s inside the three-yard line we know what they’re doing. But Gainwell at +350 odds is well worth the wager.


With 15 weeks of NFL action in the books, Educated Bets are hitting at a 50% clip, going 53-53 so far this season. Because of some long-odds tickets cashing in, Educated Bets are up just over 24 units, meaning a $10 bettor would be up over $240 on the season. We’ll do our best to find the best spots to attack each week and keep rolling with winning plays.

There are 18 weeks of football in the regular season alone, not to mention the playoffs. There’s no need to wager the entire bankroll in one week. However, as you accumulate winnings, don’t be afraid to incrementally increase unit size. Create a plan and stick to it. There’s no reason to go all-in on just one football Sunday.

Do you or a loved one have a problem with gambling? Call 1-800-426-2537 for confidential help and support.

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)

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