Educated Bets – Week Two Player Props

Keep building that bankroll! It’s Week 2 of the NFL season and NFL bettors have the chance to take information from Week 1 and leverage that to make educated bets! ...

Keep building that bankroll! It’s Week 2 of the NFL season and NFL bettors have the chance to take information from Week 1 and leverage that to make educated bets!  Brett Ford (@FadeThatMan) earned a nice long shot winner last week with a Rashid Shaheed touchdown while Tyler Gentile (@808Paperboi) chalked up a pair of wins on CeeDee Lamb and Calvin Ridley over receiving props. Using expert analysis and diligent research, Brett and Tyler have compiled a list of the best places to leverage player performance for profit this week.

Please note: Listed lines and odds are subject to change from sportsbook to sportsbook, and may have moved since being posted.


Brett’s Picks


Anthony Richardson over 42.5 rushing yards (-120)

  • Richardson was quickly acclimated to the NFL tempo, greeted by a Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense in Week 1 that had him running, and caught him for four sacks. He ran hard (perhaps too hard) on each of his scampers and finished with 40 rushing yards on 10 carries. His rushing game is going to be a huge piece of this Indianapolis Colts offense moving forward.
  • In Week 2, Richardson squares off against a Houston Texans defense that was mostly mediocre in a Week 1 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. The Texans allowed another mobile quarterback, Lamar Jackson, to gash them for more than 6.0 yards per carry. Though they didn’t let him break free for a game-breaking run, Jackson still managed multiple scrambles for eight yards or more.
  • The Texans have struggled against the run over the last few years, ranked last in the NFL in 2022 allowing 170.2 rushing yards per game. Richardson has been the Colts’ most effective and second most frequent rusher in the small sample size so far this season. He has not shown any indication of shying away from contact, in fact he left the game briefly in Week 1 after a big hit.
  • Under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, the Texans have played a lot of man-to-man. If a pass play breaks down, Richardson could run away from the defense as the secondary chases their man assignments, allowing for a breakaway rushing play. It could only take one play for Richardson to hit this mark.


Nico Collins over 47.5 receiving yards (-125)

  • Nico Collins has blossomed in his third year, becoming what fantasy managers were hoping for last season as he gained momentum during draft season. In Week 1 against the Ravens, Collins was targeted a team-high 11 times and pulled in six catches for 80 yards.
  • Across his last five games dating back to last season, Collins has averaged 9.2 targets per game, a rate which would have ranked ninth over the course of a full season in 2022 just in front of Ceedee Lamb, Amon Ra St. Brown and Travis Kelce.
  • According to Nic Bodiford at PFF, Collins has one of the best matchups in the NFL in Week 2, squaring off against Colts’ cornerback Dallis Flowers. The Colts’ secondary allowed Jaguars WR1 Calvin Ridley to pop off for eight catches, 101 yards and a touchdown.
  • On the other side of the formation, Zay Jones went for 55 yards receiving and a touchdown, as well. Until the Colts’ secondary can shut down a wide receiver playing on the outside, bettors and offensive coordinators alike should be targeting them in the passing game.


Dalton Kincaid over 30.5 receiving yards (-110)

  • Kincaid was on the field for the Buffalo Bills on 55 out of 69 offensive snaps, running routes on 38 different occasions. He ran just seven fewer routes than Stefon Diggs. Though Kincaid was targeted only four times, he made the most of his chances, pulling in all four catches but for just 26 yards.
  • The New York Jets defense beat the Bills’ offensive line on a regular basis, smothering Josh Allen in the pocket and forcing him to get the ball out quickly. Against the Las Vegas Raiders’ pass rush, especially one without the injured Chandler Jones, the Bills should be better able to push the ball downfield, allowing their pass-catchers to run deeper routes.
  • Kincaid should be in line for the same kind of workload that he saw in Week 1, maybe more. His average depth of target should increase from a meager 1.3 yards, giving him an increasing chance to reach this mark. Kincaid finished his debut with just five air yards and only a 1.5% share of Buffalo’s air yards, yet still finished with 26 yards receiving.
  • The Raiders defense isn’t on par with the Jets, so Josh Allen should have more time in the pocket while his receivers will be able to get downfield (and open) more regularly. Assuming similar or even increased usage, Kincaid should easily exceed his yardage total from a week ago.


James Conner over 2.5 receptions (-135)

  • The Arizona Cardinals’ play-calling in Week 1 was as conservative as I’ve ever seen. Cardinals running backs and tight ends received a combined total of 17 targets out of 30, more than half of all passes thrown by Joshua Dobbs.
  • James Conner was on the receiving end of five of those targets and reeled in each of them. Yet, he only gained eight yards on those five receptions. Gross.
  • The Cardinals face the Giants, who were just walloped by the Cowboys on national television. The New York Giants’ defense will be out to prove a point and Wink Martindale will have his squad out to get Joshua Dobbs. The pressure that the Cardinals will endure will likely force Dobbs into dump-offs and quick throws more often than he’d want to…which potentially benefits Conner.
  • The Cowboys threw the ball just 25 times, with six of those targets going to their running backs (either Tony Pollard or KeVontae Turpin) for a combined four catches.
  • In Week 1, Conner dominated the snaps in the Arizona backfield, with 52 snaps to just 10 combined between backup running backs Keontay Ingram and Emari Demercado. Conner ran 29 routes, while the other two running backs ran just four.


Rhamondre Stevenson over 50.5 rushing yards (-115)

  • After carrying a questionable designation into Week 1 due to illness, Patriots’ bellcow running back was held to just 25 yards on 12 carries a week ago against arguably the best defensive front in the NFL. However, this week he’ll face a Dolphins defense that just allowed 233 rushing yards to the Los Angeles Chargers backfield.
  • Stevenson and the Patriots faced a negative game script for all four quarters as the Eagles jumped out to a 16-0 first quarter lead in Week 1. Despite playing from behind the entire game, Stevenson still received 12 carries, more than enough to gash the Miami defense that allowed more than 5.0 yards per carry in Week 1.
  • A year ago, Stevenson averaged 5.0 yards per carry, including nine games with more than 51 rushing yards. Against the Miami Dolphins in Week 17, Stevenson ran eight times for 42 yards, averaging over 5.0 yards per carry in a game where he split rushes with Damien Harris (as the Pats only rushed 21 times total).
  • As fantastic as the Dolphins’ defense looks on paper, especially their pass rush, their Week 1 rush defense left a lot to be desired. And the Patriots are no longer under the dark cloud of Matt Patricia on the offensive side of the ball, meaning their attack may actually be somewhat intuitive as they try to beat their division rival.


Raheem Mostert under 45.5 rushing yards (+100)

  • Mike McDaniel is supposed to be some sort of run game genius. Well, we didn’t see it in Week 1. The Dolphins rushed for just 70 yards on 20 attempts as the passing attack took flight against the Chargers.
  • The Dolphins offensive line got little to no push, gaining just 3.5 yards per rush. A year ago the Dolphins averaged a middling 4.3 yards per carry.
  • In two games against the Patriots in 2022, Mostert carried the ball a combined 14 times for 45 yards, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry. In those two games, the Patriots rushing defense allowed just 65 rushing yards (Week 2) and 86 rushing yards (Week 17 without Tua).
  • Even against the dominating rushing attack of the Philadelphia Eagles, the Patriots’ defense allowed just 97 rushing yards, holding them under 4.0 yards per carry throughout the game.
  • Based on the Dolphins’ Week 1 usage, Mostert will likely not reach 15 carries in this game, and if the Patriots’ defense holds as stout as it did in its previous two matchups against their division rival, it will be a significant challenge for him to reach 45 rushing yards.


Zay Flowers anytime TD (+245)

  • The most electrifying player on the Baltimore Ravens’ offense is listed as the fifth-likeliest Ravens player to score, according to sportsbooks. That’s almost enough to bet this prop (at these odds) without any number to back it up.
  • Flowers was on the field for 54 out of 64 offensive snaps, ran the second-most routes on the team (28), running 40% more than incumbent Rashod Bateman who ran just 17 routes on 25 offensive snaps. Flowers is AT WORST the WR2 in this offense.
  • Flowers might even be the WR1. Flowers dominated the Ravens’ target share, with 10 targets on 20 passes. That’s 50%. Granted, Mark Andrews was not on the field, so that certainly won’t be sustainable. But compared to Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman, who combined for just five targets in Week 1, Flowers was a monster.
  • The Ravens have designed plays for Flowers in each of his on-field appearances dating back to the preseason. Todd Monken will want to show off his shiny new toy and get him in the end zone sooner than later.
  • The game script for the Ravens in Week 1 didn’t lend itself to the passing game, with Baltimore leading throughout the entire game against the Texans. There’s not much data on the Bengals’ pass defense either, considering they got smashed by the Browns’ running game so badly that Cleveland didn’t need to pass.



Tyler’s Picks


Nick Chubb over 75.5 rushing yards (-115)

  • Since he joined the league in 2018, Nick Chubb has been one of the most explosive running backs in the game. He owns an impressive career average of 5.3 yards per carry. Dating back to last season, Chubb eclipsed this mark in 14 of his last 18 contests, averaging nearly 18 carries and 91 yards per game.
  • Chubb rushed for 106 yards on 18 carries last week and faces a familiar foe in the Pittsburgh Steelers this week. The Steelers were gashed by Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers last week, yielding 188 yards on the ground. Last season they were in the middle of the pack in terms of rush defense, ranking 18th in Rush EPA. Chubb went over this mark in both games against them last year with 77 yards on 12 carries in week 18, and 113 yards on 23 carries in week 3.
  • In a massive blow to their interior defensive line, Pittsburgh will be without Cam Heyward for about eight weeks after sustaining a groin injury.
  • This should open up the ground game even more so for Cleveland, who loves to establish the run.
  • They had the 5th most rushing attempts per game last season and will continue to lean on the ground game given Deshaun Watson’s mediocre play since returning to the field.


Bijan Robinson over 54.5 rushing yards (-115) 

  • The Green Bay Packers have been a run funnel over the past two seasons. In both 2021 and 2022, they were 31st in rush EPA per play.
  • Joe Barry, the defensive coordinator responsible for this porous run defense, is back for a third straight season. There’s a decent chance their tackle-leading linebacker, Quay Walker, will miss Sunday’s game due to a concussion as well.
  • No one ran the ball more than Atlanta Falcons last season, and it’s no secret they intend to do the same in 2022. They don’t trust Desmond Ridder to air it out just yet, and they didn’t just spend the 8th overall pick on Bijan Robinson for nothing.
  • Bijan was leaned on heavily, but finished with only 10 carries for 56 yards. I expect more usage on the ground in this game. Even if he only sees 10 carries, it wouldn’t be shocking for him to fly past this number, given the defense he is going up against.


Mike Williams over 59.5 receiving yards (-115) 

  • The Chargers new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, clearly game-planned for a heavy rushing attack plan last week against the Dolphins. I highly doubt that will be the same point of attack facing the Titans stout run defense.
  • Tennessee had the best defensive rush EPA per play rating last season. Their front seven is elite and they held Jamaal Williams to a mere 45 yards in his 18 carries last week.
  • Their secondary, on the other hand, is horrendous. They were 28th in dropback EPA/play last season and they will be without their starting safety Amani Hooker and cornerback Kristian Fulton. Sean-Murphy Bunting is the only decent corner they have and he typically covers the slot, where Keenan Allen resides.
  • That leaves 6’4 Mike Williams on the perimeter. As long as he stays on the field he’s set up for a massive spike week, and he had four games of 113+ receiving yards last year.
  • We just saw Chris Olave (8-112), Rashid Shaheed (5-89), and Michael Thomas (5-61) all flourish; everyone in the Chargers passing game should as well.
  • With Austin Ekeler unlikely to suit up, Moore will be even more incentivized to throw the ball downfield more often, opening up more targets for Williams in areas where he excels.
  • I put .25 units on him to have 100+ receiving yards (+450), .25u on 125+ yards (+1000), and .1u on him to be the receiving yards leader for Sunday at 35/1.


Anthony Richardson anytime TD (+180)

  • Standing in at 6’4 and 245 pounds, Richardson is by far their best red-zone running option, especially without Jonathan Taylor in the fold.
  • Colts head coach Shane Steichen, the Eagles offensive coordinator last season, was a key factor in unlocking Jalen Hurts last season. Steichen drew up multiple designed runs for his first-round rookie quarterback last week.
  • Richardson finished with 10 carries for 40 yards and found the paydirt. He led the team with carries inside the 10-yard line with three.
  • We’re getting tremendous value at +180 for this wager. It wouldn’t be shocking to see this routinely close in the +100 range in the foreseeable future.


Christian Kirk over 39.5 receiving yards (-115) 

  • After only catching one pass for nine yards last week, we’re getting a discounted number, by my estimations.
  • Yes, Calvin Ridley is now a part of the offense, but last season Kirk was one of Lawrence’s favorite targets. Including the playoffs, he eclipsed this number in 15/19 games last season, averaging 65 receiving yards per game. That included two games against the Chiefs where he went 9/105 and 7/52.
  • Kirk is the slot guy this season, and we just saw Amon-ra St. Brown and the Lions get theirs against the Kansas City Chiefs defense. The Sun God finished with a 6/71 line last week. Kirk could replicate that (or at least post a similar line) on Sunday.
  • With the highest total on the board this week and Travis Kelce back for Kansas City, this game is set up for a shootout. Neither defense is particularly amazing.
  • If you don’t trust what I have to say, trust their head coach, Doug Peterson.


With only a one game sample size, remember that there is still a very limited knowledge base to operate from. Maintain a small to medium bet sizing and stay disciplined. It’s a long season. There’s no need to wager the entire bankroll in one week. Slow and steady wins this race, and keeps it fun.

Do you or a loved one have a problem with gambling? Call 1-800-426-2537 for confidential help and support.


Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photography by Andy Lewis / Icon Sportswire

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