Flash in the pan. One week wonder. Whatever label we want to assign it, there is an annual tradition of players emerging from relative obscurity to ping on the fantasy radar. Some have staying power, but often they’ll turn back into a pumpkin right around the time you insert them into your starting lineup or trade away meaningful assets to acquire them. The decoder ring to decipher which are treasure and which are fool’s gold has everything to do with usage. The players who have well-defined, expansive roles in their offense can contribute in a meaningful way, but those whose production is far outpacing their role often end up being fool’s gold and can shipwreck your season. Let’s take a look at some of the early-season breakouts that are more pyrite than precious metal.
Quentin Johnston – WR, Chargers
Don’t get me wrong, I understand the appeal of Quentin Johnston in theory. A big-bodied field-stretcher that the Chargers have been searching for since forever with first-round draft capital is WR7 through 2 weeks of the NFL season? Yes, please. Johnston has tallied 8 catches for 150 yards and 3 touchdowns for 20.4 fantasy points per game on the young season and has been a waiver wire darling for fantasy managers. A closer look, however, shows some cracks in the foundation. Notching 3 touchdowns on 8 catches (37.5%) is an astronomical touchdown rate and is primed for major regression, and 4 receptions per game on average is hardly a robust workload. The type of targets that Johnston is drawing is material as well. His 18.8 yards per reception currently stands 7th in the NFL and, while great for best ball managers chasing spike weeks, means that his limited opportunities are coming by way of some of the hardest to complete passes in the game. There just isn’t anything sustainable about how Johnston has started the year, and I view his workload as that of a fringe WR3, where I think he’ll level out to be by the time the season is done.
Kenneth Walker III – RB, Seahawks
Hand up. I did it too. I got worked into a lather about Klint Kubiak bringing his zone running scheme to Seattle and what it could mean for a player like Kenneth Walker III. Walker’s debut in this new system went about as bad as it could go, with him getting just 26% of backfield touches and generating just 24 yards on 13 opportunities while ceding much of the work to Zach Charbonnet. Week 2, however, showed some promise with Walker bouncing back to notch 105 yards on 13 carries (8.1 ypc) and finding the end zone en route to an RB9 finish. The contrast between the two games is stark, and while his fantasy productivity made the leap in Week 2, his playing time actually went in the opposite direction as his snap share fell from 40% to 35% from one week to the next. This signals to me that even when Walker is flashing his upside in the offense, Seattle will still feature a heavy dose of Charbonnet, and I believe games like this last one will become the exception, not the rule. This is your opportunity to sell high off the big performance and create some space between yourself and what I believe is a landmine for fantasy managers.
DeAndre Hopkins – WR, Ravens
Take it from me, a life-long Texans fan: the idea of DeAndre Hopkins still possessing some of the best hands in the league and contributing in a meaningful way to a contender like Baltimore is a thing of beauty. Through 2 games, Hopkins is averaging a respectable 13 fantasy points and is right on the fringe of WR2 territory. He has hauled in 2 receptions in back-to-back games, each delivering a long touchdown, but is averaging a woeful 26% snap-share on the season and finished with route totals of 10 and 7 across the two games. Touchdown regression spares no man, and it would be foolish to expect Hopkins to keep finding the end zone when he’s on the field for such a limited amount of snaps. This would be a perfect time to sell Hopkins to a manager who wants to relive the glory days, or at a minimum, you should curb your enthusiasm and only start Hopkins as a last resort.