There are many things that lead to a player donning the “Fool’s Gold” designation, but this week I want to hone in on a couple in particular: touchdown variance and low-probability plays. When a player makes a leaping grab over two defenders or saves your fantasy day with a garbage-time touchdown, it feels amazing. The unfortunate reality, however, is that those plays are difficult to sustain. A player who has a minimal role in their offense but scores a touchdown every week likely won’t repeat that production. A player who is catching a deep pass or two every week will likely see those hit the turf more often than not. Identifying the high-performing players who, statistically, are due for some regression and either selling them high or decreasing your reliance on them is a foundational component to a successful fantasy season. Let’s take a look at a few players who are making their hay in an unsustainable fashion.
Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI
Dallas Goedert is off to a very hot start to the season. The Eagles’ veteran is 2nd among tight ends in fantasy points per game, at 13.8, and has found the end zone in back-to-back games. Wherein lies the problem. Since returning from a knee injury that caused him to miss their Week 2 matchup against the Chiefs, Goedert has 3 receiving touchdowns on just 5 total catches. He operates in one of the lowest-volume passing offenses in the league, averaging just 27.5 pass attempts per game, and his 7.4% first-read target share signals that he is not a focal point when the Eagles do decide to pass the ball. Further complicating the matter is the way the Eagles are using him. He leads the league in deep target share and carries a 6.5-yard average depth of target. That type of usage is great when it connects, but also means that his looks are comparably much less likely to be caught, which leads to a very boom or bust profile. I think that Goedert will be a serviceable Tight End for those who roster him this season, but it would be foolish to expect his performance to stay anywhere near the levels we’ve seen through 3 games.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF
Sticking with the Tight End position, Dalton Kincaid has been paying early dividends to anyone who drafted him around his 10th-round ADP this offseason. Kincaid currently ranks 7th with 12.5 PPR points per game and, like Goedert, is having his fantasy production boosted by 3 trips to the end zone. The comparisons to Goedert don’t stop there for Kincaid, who is also among the league leaders in deep targets, air yard share, and average depth of target. The overall potency of the Bills’ offense and the amount of passes they’re attempting do work in Kincaid’s favor, but he carries an affliction common to many of Buffalo’s pass-catchers: playing time. When Kincaid is on the field, he does a great job of maximizing his opportunities, but through four weeks, he’s been on the field for 47% of snaps and has run a route on just 62% of passing plays. There is no shortage of “he’d be a league-winner if they just played him more” types in Buffalo, and unfortunately, this just is who they are. You can cross your fingers and hope that Kincaid is the one who breaks the trend, or you can capitalize on his hot start and look to upgrade to a player with a more sustainable production profile.
Tyquan Thornton, WR, KC
Now. Right now is the time to move on from Tyquan Thornton. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been a favorite target of mine in DFS, and I’ve used him in a spot start or two over the past couple of weeks, but the trade winds appear to be shifting. Thornton filled in admirably with Xavier Worthy sidelined, hauling in 10 catches for 182 yards and 3 receiving scores while being the preferred target of Mahomes’ prayer balls in have-to-have-it moments. This puts Thornton at the top of the league with 11 deep targets and a 23.5-yard average depth of target, while his 469 air yards ranks 4th among receivers this year. Unfortunately, as we’ve discussed above, those passes are less frequently caught, and that leaves Thornton with a woeful 65% catchable target rate. Making matters worse is that the return of Worthy in Week 4 saw Thornton’s participation plummet. He ran just 14 routes, 36% participation, and only took the field on 35% of Kansas City’s plays. He salvaged his day with his one catch, converting for an 11-yard touchdown, but that is unsustainable for a player who is on the field as infrequently as Thornton was last week. Oh, and don’t forget that Rashee Rice is now just 2 games away from making his own return to the Chiefs’ corps. If you can flip Thornton into anything meaningful, you have to do it while you still can.
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads
@kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)